Gustavo Varela
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Gustavo Varela's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-2.2M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.0M-5.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.8M-8.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.07x the positional average in the league (1522 minutes, league coefficient 0.58). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 61
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 25.5th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 21.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €3.3M vs market €3.0M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +21% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 34% |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1522 (50% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.53
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.54
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 26 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1303
- Opponent strength
- 1316
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 34%
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.8M – €8.4M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +15% (IQR -25% to +97%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1522 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 58 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 71%–130%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 66%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Gil Vicente FC | Liga Portugal | ST | 32 | 1522 | 50% | 6 | 3 | 0.53 | 0.54 | 1316 | 1303 | 0.58 |
| 2023/24 | SL Benfica | Liga Portugal | ST | 1 | 15 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.30 | 1345 | 1603 | 0.58 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyan Vaesen Jupiler Pro League · 2023 | 22 | €2.0M | €700k | fell |
| Daniel Podence Liga Portugal · 2017 | 22 | €2.5M | €4.5M | rose |
| Luther Singh Liga Portugal · 2020 | 23 | €2.4M | €1.5M | fell |
| Jóhann Berg Gudmundsson Eredivisie · 2013 | 23 | €1.5M | €2.0M | rose |
| Kodai Sano Eredivisie · 2024 | 21 | €4.0M | €12.0M | rose |
| Osman Bukari Jupiler Pro League · 2021 | 23 | €2.5M | €6.5M | rose |
| Koki Saito Eredivisie · 2024 | 23 | €4.0M | €3.2M | fell |
| Pontus Almqvist Premier Liga · 2022 | 23 | €3.0M | €3.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | Gil Vicente | Benfica B | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 9 Jul 2025 | Benfica B | Gil Vicente | Free / loan | €1.2M |
| 1 Dec 2023 | Benfica U19 | Benfica B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2022 | PAOK U19 | Benfica U19 | €100k | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2021 | PAOK U17 | PAOK U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Sporting Yth. | PAOK U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.