Steve Ngoura
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Steve Ngoura's performance-implied value at EUR 1.2M-5.5M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 3.8M-11.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.6M-14.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.05x the positional average in the league (1831 minutes, league coefficient 0.65). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 43
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 31.3th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 21.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €6.7M vs market €5.0M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +27% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 37% |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.65 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1831 (68% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.44
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.53
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 31 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.65 (rank 6)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1325
- Opponent strength
- 1380
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 37%
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.6M – €14.1M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +158% (IQR -21% to +322%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 78 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 72%–126%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 60%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Cercle Brugge | Jupiler Pro League | ST | 29 | 1831 | 68% | 4 | 5 | 0.44 | 0.53 | 1380 | 1325 | 0.65 |
| 2024/25 | Le Havre AC | Ligue 1 | ST | 8 | 285 | 9% | 0 | 1 | 0.32 | 0.57 | 1436 | 1333 | 0.88 |
| 2024/25 | Cercle Brugge | Jupiler Pro League | ST | 2 | 21 | 1% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.64 | 1507 | 1361 | 0.63 |
| 2023/24 | Le Havre AC | Ligue 1 | ST | 12 | 213 | 7% | 0 | 1 | 0.42 | 0.54 | 1419 | 1351 | 0.87 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Jupiler Pro League Relegation Play Offs | Cercle Brugge | 5 | 262 | 3 | 0 | 1245 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Galeno Liga Portugal · 2019 | 22 | €3.0M | €10.0M | rose |
| Daichi Kamada Jupiler Pro League · 2019 | 23 | €4.5M | €25.0M | rose |
| Mitchell van Bergen Eredivisie · 2019 | 20 | €3.0M | €2.4M | fell |
| Rabbi Matondo Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 22 | €4.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Lucas Piazón Eredivisie · 2014 | 20 | €7.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Samuel Lino Liga Portugal · 2021 | 22 | €2.0M | €16.0M | rose |
| Victor Osimhen Jupiler Pro League · 2019 | 21 | €13.0M | €50.0M | rose |
| Bersant Celina Eredivisie · 2017 | 21 | €2.5M | €5.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7 Jan 2025 | Le Havre AC | Cercle Brugge | €2.3M | €800k |
| 1 Jan 2024 | Le Havre B | Le Havre AC | Unknown | €100k |
| 1 Jan 2023 | Le Havre U19 | Le Havre B | Unknown | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Le Havre U17 | Le Havre U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Le Havre Youth | Le Havre U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | AS Choisy Jgd | Le Havre Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.