Sondre Ørjasæter
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Sondre Ørjasæter's performance-implied value at EUR 0.8M-3.0M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 4.2M-10.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 4.1M-14.1M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.83x the positional average in the league (2154 minutes, league coefficient 0.43). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 66
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 31.7th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €6.3M vs market €7.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +4% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 28% |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2154 (70% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.38
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.34
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 32 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.43 (rank 15)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1403
- Opponent strength
- 1290
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 28%
- Resale range (24m)
- €4.1M – €14.1M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -12% (IQR -51% to +45%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 82 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 73%–122%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 61%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Twente Enschede | Eredivisie | LW | 30 | 2154 | 70% | 3 | 6 | 0.38 | 0.34 | 1290 | 1403 | 0.43 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Knvb Beker | FC Twente Enschede | 4 | 312 | 2 | 2 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Massimo Bruno Jupiler Pro League · 2014 | 21 | €8.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Gustav Isaksen Superliga · 2023 | 22 | €7.5M | €20.0M | rose |
| Marko Livaja Super League 1 · 2019 | 26 | €4.0M | €3.5M | flat |
| Christos Tzolis Super League 1 · 2021 | 19 | €12.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Othmane Boussaid Eredivisie · 2024 | 24 | €2.3M | €1.2M | fell |
| Andrija Zivkovic Super League 1 · 2022 | 26 | €6.0M | €8.0M | rose |
| Aleksandar Mitrović Jupiler Pro League · 2014 | 20 | €7.5M | €14.0M | rose |
| Olakunle Olusegun Premier Liga · 2024 | 22 | €2.8M | €2.5M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 Aug 2025 | Sarpsborg 08 | FC Twente | €5.0M | €7.0M |
| 31 Jan 2024 | Sogndal | Sarpsborg 08 | €850k | €750k |
| 17 Jan 2022 | Stryn IL | Sogndal | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.