Gustav Isaksen

25 yrs · Right winger (also ST) · Denmark
Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. · Serie A · Foot: left · Height: 181 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: ModerateContract: until 30 Jun 2028
Market value
€15.0M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€9.5M – €17.7M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€8.7M – €31.7M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€6.1M – €21.0M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€9.1M – €22.2M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€9.5M – €17.7M
Model value (performance-implied)€8.7M – €31.7M
Projected value (24 months)€6.1M – €21.0M
Dashed line: current market value (€15.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Gustav Isaksen's performance-implied value at EUR 8.7M-31.7M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 9.5M-17.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 6.1M-21.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.89x the positional average in the league (1598 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 40

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceHigh78.1th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral)
AgeNeutral25.2 years
Acquisition costNeutralest. €13.5M vs market €15.0M
Expected appreciationLow-17% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapNegativeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentModerate
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.93
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €20.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1598 (47% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.34
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.35
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
78 (High)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.93 (rank 4)
Team strength (Elo)
1522
Opponent strength
1510
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Moderate
Trajectory
stable
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€6.1M – €21.0M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 18 pts; team strength down (-84 Elo); relative output up 39% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -55% (IQR -73% to -34%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ⚠Limited sample: 1598 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A.Serie ARW30159847%510.340.35151015220.93
2024/25Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A.Serie ARW37222865%430.280.28149016060.99
2023/24Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A.Serie ARW28106931%320.420.32145515800.98
2023/24FC MidtjyllandSuperligaST21598%000.000.36122114490.48
2022/23FC MidtjyllandSuperligaRW21158080%910.570.41128613680.47
2021/22FC MidtjyllandSuperligaRW20124063%250.510.30126414290.45
2020/21FC MidtjyllandSuperligaRW1346924%100.190.22125414500.43
2019/20FC MidtjyllandSuperligaRW1448921%010.180.20126515000.41

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Italy CupSocietà Sportiva Lazio S.p.A.428100—
2024/25Uefa Europa LeagueSocietà Sportiva Lazio S.p.A.10535231576
2024/25Italy CupSocietà Sportiva Lazio S.p.A.210800—
2023/24Uefa Champions LeagueSocietà Sportiva Lazio S.p.A.5243021671
2023/24Italy CupSocietà Sportiva Lazio S.p.A.311600—
2023/24Uefa Conference League QualifyingFC Midtjylland167001317
2023/24Supercoppa ItalianaSocietà Sportiva Lazio S.p.A.124001802
2022/23Uefa Europa LeagueFC Midtjylland8692321540
2022/23Uefa Champions League QualifyingFC Midtjylland4201001504
2022/23Oddset PokalenFC Midtjylland14510—
2021/22Uefa Europa LeagueFC Midtjylland6484201508
2021/22Oddset PokalenFC Midtjylland633310—
2021/22Uefa Champions League QualifyingFC Midtjylland278001626
2020/21Oddset PokalenFC Midtjylland536620—
2020/21Uefa Champions LeagueFC Midtjylland343001763
2019/20Oddset PokalenFC Midtjylland15800—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Kasper Dolberg
Ligue 1 · 2022
25€17.0M€12.0Mfell
Adel Taarabt
Serie A · 2014
25€8.0M€1.5Mfell
Diego Rolán
Ligue 1 · 2017
24€8.0M€2.0Mfell
Christian Kouamé
Serie A · 2023
26€12.0M€4.0Mfell
Borja Mayoral
Serie A · 2021
24€14.0M€9.0Mfell
Xherdan Shaqiri
Premier League · 2017
26€15.0M€25.0Mrose
Gelson Martins
Ligue 1 · 2021
26€18.0M€5.0Mfell
Breel Embolo
Ligue 1 · 2023
26€20.0M€12.0Mfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
8 Aug 2023MidtjyllandLazio€14.4M€7.5M
1 Jul 2019Midtjylland U19MidtjyllandUnknown€50k
1 Jul 2018FCM YouthMidtjylland U19UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.