
Gustav Isaksen
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Gustav Isaksen's performance-implied value at EUR 8.7M-31.7M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 9.5M-17.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 6.1M-21.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.89x the positional average in the league (1598 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 40
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 78.1th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 25.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €13.5M vs market €15.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -17% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1598 (47% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.34
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.35
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 78 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1522
- Opponent strength
- 1510
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €6.1M – €21.0M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 18 pts; team strength down (-84 Elo); relative output up 39% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -55% (IQR -73% to -34%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Limited sample: 1598 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | Serie A | RW | 30 | 1598 | 47% | 5 | 1 | 0.34 | 0.35 | 1510 | 1522 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | Serie A | RW | 37 | 2228 | 65% | 4 | 3 | 0.28 | 0.28 | 1490 | 1606 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | Serie A | RW | 28 | 1069 | 31% | 3 | 2 | 0.42 | 0.32 | 1455 | 1580 | 0.98 |
| 2023/24 | FC Midtjylland | Superliga | ST | 2 | 159 | 8% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.36 | 1221 | 1449 | 0.48 |
| 2022/23 | FC Midtjylland | Superliga | RW | 21 | 1580 | 80% | 9 | 1 | 0.57 | 0.41 | 1286 | 1368 | 0.47 |
| 2021/22 | FC Midtjylland | Superliga | RW | 20 | 1240 | 63% | 2 | 5 | 0.51 | 0.30 | 1264 | 1429 | 0.45 |
| 2020/21 | FC Midtjylland | Superliga | RW | 13 | 469 | 24% | 1 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.22 | 1254 | 1450 | 0.43 |
| 2019/20 | FC Midtjylland | Superliga | RW | 14 | 489 | 21% | 0 | 1 | 0.18 | 0.20 | 1265 | 1500 | 0.41 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | 4 | 281 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | 10 | 535 | 2 | 3 | 1576 |
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | 2 | 108 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | 5 | 243 | 0 | 2 | 1671 |
| 2023/24 | Italy Cup | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | 3 | 116 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | FC Midtjylland | 1 | 67 | 0 | 0 | 1317 |
| 2023/24 | Supercoppa Italiana | Società Sportiva Lazio S.p.A. | 1 | 24 | 0 | 0 | 1802 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | FC Midtjylland | 8 | 692 | 3 | 2 | 1540 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | FC Midtjylland | 4 | 201 | 0 | 0 | 1504 |
| 2022/23 | Oddset Pokalen | FC Midtjylland | 1 | 45 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | FC Midtjylland | 6 | 484 | 2 | 0 | 1508 |
| 2021/22 | Oddset Pokalen | FC Midtjylland | 6 | 333 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | FC Midtjylland | 2 | 78 | 0 | 0 | 1626 |
| 2020/21 | Oddset Pokalen | FC Midtjylland | 5 | 366 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League | FC Midtjylland | 3 | 43 | 0 | 0 | 1763 |
| 2019/20 | Oddset Pokalen | FC Midtjylland | 1 | 58 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kasper Dolberg Ligue 1 · 2022 | 25 | €17.0M | €12.0M | fell |
| Adel Taarabt Serie A · 2014 | 25 | €8.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Diego Rolán Ligue 1 · 2017 | 24 | €8.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Christian Kouamé Serie A · 2023 | 26 | €12.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Borja Mayoral Serie A · 2021 | 24 | €14.0M | €9.0M | fell |
| Xherdan Shaqiri Premier League · 2017 | 26 | €15.0M | €25.0M | rose |
| Gelson Martins Ligue 1 · 2021 | 26 | €18.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Breel Embolo Ligue 1 · 2023 | 26 | €20.0M | €12.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Aug 2023 | Midtjylland | Lazio | €14.4M | €7.5M |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Midtjylland U19 | Midtjylland | Unknown | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2018 | FCM Youth | Midtjylland U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.