Thomas Meunier

35 yrs · Right-back · Belgium
LOSC Lille · Ligue 1 · Foot: right · Height: 190 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: Data unavailable
Market value
€1.5M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€443k – €1.7M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€926k – €1.8M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€410k – €979k
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€778k – €1.3M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€443k – €1.7M
Model value (performance-implied)€926k – €1.8M
Projected value (24 months)€410k – €979k
Dashed line: current market value (€1.5M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Thomas Meunier's performance-implied value at EUR 0.9M-1.8M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.4M-1.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-1.0M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.

Bargain Index: not assigned

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

Age above 33 (outside validated pool)

PerformanceHigh83.1th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable34.8 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €864k vs market €1.5M
Expected appreciationVery low-49% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapLargeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.88
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €35.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1910 (62% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.19
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.13
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
83 (High)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.88 (rank 5)
Team strength (Elo)
1547
Opponent strength
1462
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
improving
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€410k – €979k

Trajectory drivers: relative output up 59% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -71% (IQR -81% to -50%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ▲Age 35: resale value typically declines.
  • ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26LOSC LilleLigue 1RB25191062%220.190.13146215470.88
2024/25LOSC LilleLigue 1RB30192563%200.090.08145015940.88
2023/24TrabzonsporSuper LigRB14124536%150.430.27126813790.45
2023/24Borussia DortmundBundesligaRB858819%000.000.05143917161.01
2022/23Borussia DortmundBundesligaRB1058219%000.000.07151816911.04
2021/22Borussia DortmundBundesligaRB17140646%240.380.22152616431.05
2020/21Borussia DortmundBundesligaRB21147448%110.120.08155017031.06
2019/20Paris Saint-GermainLigue 1RB16124351%020.140.10146217790.82
2018/19Paris Saint-GermainLigue 1RB22161547%340.390.15142717140.82
2017/18Paris Saint-GermainLigue 1RB24157146%430.400.12140217740.85
2016/17Paris Saint-GermainLigue 1RB22169249%140.270.12140517570.88
2015/16Club Brugge KVJupiler Pro LeagueRB22187770%130.190.12133515110.57
2014/15Club Brugge KVJupiler Pro LeagueRB28249993%240.220.12129515740.54
2013/14Club Brugge KVJupiler Pro LeagueRB23191971%310.190.13132714730.49
2012/13Club Brugge KVJupiler Pro LeagueRB1168025%410.660.36135914640.56

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Europa LeagueLOSC Lille8481011531
2025/26World CupBelgium214801—
2024/25Uefa Champions LeagueLOSC Lille9616011611
2024/25Uefa Champions League QualifyingLOSC Lille4376001598
2022/23Uefa Champions LeagueBorussia Dortmund4353011613
2022/23Dfb PokalBorussia Dortmund213800—
2021/22Uefa Champions LeagueBorussia Dortmund6484011594
2021/22Dfb PokalBorussia Dortmund216100—
2021/22Uefa Europa LeagueBorussia Dortmund145001633
2020/21Uefa Champions LeagueBorussia Dortmund7348011575
2020/21Dfb PokalBorussia Dortmund48100—
2020/21Franz Beckenbauer SupercupBorussia Dortmund167001919
2019/20Uefa Champions LeagueParis Saint-Germain5450101645
2019/20Trophee Des ChampionsParis Saint-Germain180001488
2018/19Uefa Champions LeagueParis Saint-Germain5363111687
2017/18Trophee Des ChampionsParis Saint-Germain190001727
2017/18Uefa Champions LeagueParis Saint-Germain124001885
2016/17Uefa Champions LeagueParis Saint-Germain6454121721
2016/17Trophee Des ChampionsParis Saint-Germain114001533
2015/16Uefa Europa LeagueClub Brugge KV6470211532
2014/15Uefa Europa LeagueClub Brugge KV8708001467
2014/15Uefa Europa League QualifyingClub Brugge KV3270001391
2012/13Uefa Champions League QualifyingClub Brugge KV2180001486
2012/13Uefa Europa League QualifyingClub Brugge KV2135001321
2012/13Uefa Europa LeagueClub Brugge KV2120001423

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Anthony Réveillère
Ligue 1 · 2013
34€1.5M€500kfell
Stefan Radu
Serie A · 2021
35€2.0M€300kfell
Nemanja Vidic‎
Serie A · 2015
34€1.0M€500kfell
Philippe Mexès
Serie A · 2014
32€2.5M€500kfell
Yuri Berchiche
Laliga · 2024
34€1.8M€1.0Mfell
Igor Lewczuk
Ligue 1 · 2017
32€1.0M€500kfell
Dusan Basta
Serie A · 2017
33€3.0M€200kfell
Jérémy Morel
Ligue 1 · 2017
33€1.0M€250kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jul 2026LilleWithout ClubUnknown€1.5M
19 Jul 2024TrabzonsporLilleFree / loan€2.5M
7 Feb 2024DortmundTrabzonsporFree / loan€2.5M
1 Jul 2020PSGDortmundFree / loan€24.0M
3 Jul 2016Club BruggePSG€6.0M€6.0M
1 Jul 2011RE VirtonClub Brugge€200k€300k
1 Jul 2009RE Virton U19RE VirtonUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2006Standard YthRE Virton U19Free / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.

Thomas Meunier · MoneyballAI