Sergey Petrov

35 yrs · Right-back (also CM, LB) · Russia
FK Krasnodar · Premier Liga · Foot: right · Height: 175 cm
Risk: Very HighConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2027
No index
CompareCheaper alternative
Market value
€250k
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€62k – €211k
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€320k – €1.1M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€81k – €252k
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
€109k – €1.1M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€62k – €211k
Model value (performance-implied)€320k – €1.1M
Projected value (24 months)€81k – €252k
Dashed line: current market value (€250k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Sergey Petrov's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-1.1M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.1M-0.3M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.

Bargain Index: not assigned

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

Age above 33 (outside validated pool)

PerformanceAbove average63.5th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable35.5 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €82k vs market €250k
Expected appreciationLow-23% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery largeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationModerateleague coefficient 0.56
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskVery High
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €6.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1199 (44% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.07
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.09
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
64 (Above average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.56 (rank 10)
Team strength (Elo)
1536
Opponent strength
1334
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
stable
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€81k – €252k

Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 19 pts.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -53% (IQR -60% to -41%).

Risk profile

Overall: Very High

  • ▲Age 35: resale value typically declines.
  • ⚠Limited sample: 1199 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
  • ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
25 (DEF)
Relative output kept
48%–200%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
72%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26FK KrasnodarPremier LigaRB15119944%010.080.09133415360.56
2024/25FK KrasnodarPremier LigaRB27170763%010.050.07130415110.55
2023/24FK KrasnodarPremier LigaLB1481330%000.000.06132214050.49
2022/23FK KrasnodarPremier LigaRB1985932%110.210.13132414050.53
2021/22FK KrasnodarPremier LigaRB15127147%000.000.06136313710.52
2020/21FK KrasnodarPremier LigaRB1079529%210.340.22136113570.55
2019/20FK KrasnodarPremier LigaRB27233286%240.230.15138914650.63
2018/19FK KrasnodarPremier LigaRB22193472%120.140.12140315430.69
2017/18FK KrasnodarPremier LigaRB28252093%150.210.16139715220.75
2016/17FK KrasnodarPremier LigaRB17139452%000.000.04139515060.70
2015/16FK KrasnodarPremier LigaLB24205076%310.180.12145315770.79
2014/15FK KrasnodarPremier LigaLB22173864%110.100.09147215960.88
2013/14FK KrasnodarPremier LigaCM1462423%100.140.16145215000.92
2012/13PFK Krylya Sovetov SamaraPremier LigaRB13115443%000.000.06139113800.88
2012/13FK KrasnodarPremier LigaRB1082531%100.110.12139414660.88

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Russian Super CupFK Krasnodar124001478
2024/25Russian CupFK Krasnodar317300—
2023/24Russian CupFK Krasnodar325100—
2022/23Russian CupFK Krasnodar754900—
2021/22Russian CupFK Krasnodar14500—
2020/21Uefa Champions League QualifyingFK Krasnodar2180001519
2020/21Uefa Champions LeagueFK Krasnodar173001539
2019/20Uefa Europa LeagueFK Krasnodar6540011554
2019/20Uefa Champions League QualifyingFK Krasnodar4326001642
2018/19Uefa Europa LeagueFK Krasnodar10801021542
2018/19Russian CupFK Krasnodar19000—
2017/18Uefa Europa League QualifyingFK Krasnodar2180101424
2016/17Uefa Europa LeagueFK Krasnodar4341001565
2016/17Russian CupFK Krasnodar221000—
2016/17Uefa Europa League QualifyingFK Krasnodar2180001300
2015/16Uefa Europa LeagueFK Krasnodar5450001509
2015/16Uefa Europa League QualifyingFK Krasnodar3270001331
2015/16Russian CupFK Krasnodar221000—
2014/15Uefa Europa League QualifyingFK Krasnodar3270011428
2014/15Uefa Europa LeagueFK Krasnodar5256001565
2014/15Russian CupFK Krasnodar218012—
2013/14Russian CupFK Krasnodar319600—
2012/13Russian CupPFK Krylya Sovetov Samara11610—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Ritchie De Laet
Jupiler Pro League · 2024
36€300k€300kflat
Adriano
Super Lig · 2019
35€800k€350kfell
Quini
Super League 1 · 2024
35€350k€150kfell
Aleksey Berezutski
Premier Liga · 2017
35€300k€100kfell
Denis Odoi
Jupiler Pro League · 2024
36€300k€150kfell
Stathis Tavlaridis
Super League 1 · 2016
36€300k€150kfell
Eric Botteghin
Eredivisie · 2021
34€500k€500kflat
Vyacheslav Shevchuk
Premier Liga · 2015
36€800k€200kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
2 Jan 2013Zenit S-PbKrasnodarUnknown€750k
1 Jan 2013KS SamaraZenit S-Pb€760k€750k
1 Aug 2011Zenit IIKS SamaraFree / loan€100k
1 Aug 2008Zenit U17Zenit IIUnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.