Jacob Ambæk
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Jacob Ambæk's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-2.9M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 4.2M-14.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.7M-15.7M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.67x the positional average in the league (950 minutes, league coefficient 0.47). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 17
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 5th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Very favorable | 18.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very unfavorable | est. €8.2M vs market €4.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very high | +53% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Very High | breakout probability 44% |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.47 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 950 (48% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.28
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.34
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 5 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.47 (rank 12)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1336
- Opponent strength
- 1251
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Very High
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 44%
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.7M – €15.7M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +59% (IQR +15% to +197%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠Limited sample: 950 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.47 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 20 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 78%–121%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 65%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Bröndby IF | Superliga | ST | 16 | 950 | 48% | 3 | 0 | 0.28 | 0.34 | 1251 | 1336 | 0.47 |
| 2024/25 | Bröndby IF | Superliga | ST | 1 | 7 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.44 | 1318 | 1342 | 0.38 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Oddset Pokalen | Bröndby IF | 2 | 72 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Bröndby IF | 2 | 15 | 0 | 0 | 1391 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mathias Kvistgaarden Superliga · 2023 | 21 | €3.0M | €15.0M | rose |
| Mohamed Daramy Superliga · 2020 | 18 | €5.4M | €6.0M | flat |
| Armando Broja Eredivisie · 2021 | 20 | €3.0M | €28.0M | rose |
| Christian Bassogog Superliga · 2017 | 22 | €3.0M | €3.5M | flat |
| Calvin Stengs Eredivisie · 2019 | 21 | €7.0M | €14.0M | rose |
| Paulos Abraham Eredivisie · 2022 | 20 | €1.2M | €1.2M | flat |
| Francis Amuzu Jupiler Pro League · 2019 | 20 | €3.0M | €3.8M | rose |
| Andreas Schjelderup Superliga · 2022 | 18 | €4.0M | €10.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 Jul 2025 | Bröndby IF U19 | Bröndby IF | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2024 | Bröndby IF U17 | Bröndby IF U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2023 | Bröndby Youth | Bröndby IF U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2021 | A27 | Bröndby Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | AB Taarnby | A27 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.