
Armando Broja
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Armando Broja's performance-implied value at EUR 4.8M-17.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.7M-8.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.2M-6.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.20x the positional average in the league (849 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Above average | 60.8th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Neutral | 24.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €5.5M vs market €5.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -24% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 901 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 849 (25% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.21
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.61
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 61 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1343
- Opponent strength
- 1620
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €2.2M – €6.0M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -63% (IQR -72% to -11%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ▲Small sample: 849 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Burnley FC | Premier League | ST | 24 | 849 | 25% | 1 | 1 | 0.21 | 0.61 | 1620 | 1343 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Everton FC | Premier League | ST | 10 | 332 | 10% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.46 | 1647 | 1567 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | Chelsea FC | Premier League | ST | 13 | 453 | 13% | 1 | 1 | 0.40 | 0.39 | 1502 | 1629 | 1.14 |
| 2023/24 | Fulham FC | Premier League | ST | 8 | 81 | 2% | 0 | 1 | 1.11 | 0.66 | 1622 | 1524 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | Chelsea FC | Premier League | ST | 12 | 287 | 8% | 1 | 1 | 0.63 | 0.41 | 1561 | 1579 | 1.23 |
| 2020/21 | Vitesse Arnhem | Eredivisie | ST | 30 | 1875 | 61% | 10 | 2 | 0.58 | 0.44 | 1344 | 1394 | 0.56 |
| 2019/20 | Chelsea FC | Premier League | ST | 1 | 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.46 | 1595 | 1653 | 1.14 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Everton FC | 1 | 21 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | Chelsea FC | 2 | 89 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | Chelsea FC | 5 | 111 | 0 | 0 | 1645 |
| 2020/21 | Knvb Beker | Vitesse Arnhem | 4 | 302 | 1 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Moussa Djenepo Premier League · 2023 | 25 | €8.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Kenneth Zohore Premier League · 2019 | 25 | €7.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Mauricio Cuero Laliga · 2016 | 23 | €3.5M | €1.5M | fell |
| Callum Wilson Premier League · 2016 | 24 | €7.0M | €10.0M | rose |
| Przemyslaw Placheta Premier League · 2022 | 24 | €1.8M | €1.5M | flat |
| Javi Ontiveros Laliga · 2021 | 24 | €5.0M | €600k | fell |
| Keinan Davis Premier League · 2020 | 22 | €2.3M | €2.5M | flat |
| Adama Diakhaby Premier League · 2019 | 23 | €8.0M | €2.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Aug 2025 | Chelsea | Burnley | €23.0M | €12.0M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Everton | Chelsea | Free / loan | €12.0M |
| 30 Aug 2024 | Chelsea | Everton | Free / loan | €22.0M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | Fulham | Chelsea | Free / loan | €22.0M |
| 1 Feb 2024 | Chelsea | Fulham | Free / loan | €28.0M |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Chelsea U21 | Chelsea | Unknown | €22.0M |
| 31 May 2022 | Southampton | Chelsea U23 | Free / loan | €18.0M |
| 10 Aug 2021 | Chelsea U23 | Southampton | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 30 Jun 2021 | Vitesse | Chelsea U23 | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 21 Aug 2020 | Chelsea U23 | Vitesse | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Chelsea U18 | Chelsea U23 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Chelsea Youth | Chelsea U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 11 Sept 2009 | Tottenham Yth. | Chelsea Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.