Armando Broja

25 yrs · Striker · Albania
Burnley FC · Premier League · Foot: right · Height: 191 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: LowSample: LowDevelopment: ModerateContract: until 30 Jun 2030
Market value
€5.0M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€2.7M – €8.2M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€4.8M – €17.4M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€2.2M – €6.0M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€3.4M – €14.6M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€2.7M – €8.2M
Model value (performance-implied)€4.8M – €17.4M
Projected value (24 months)€2.2M – €6.0M
Dashed line: current market value (€5.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Armando Broja's performance-implied value at EUR 4.8M-17.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 2.7M-8.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.2M-6.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.20x the positional average in the league (849 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: not assigned

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)

PerformanceAbove average60.8th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral)
AgeNeutral24.8 years
Acquisition costUnfavorableest. €5.5M vs market €5.0M
Expected appreciationLow-24% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapSmallweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentModerate
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 1.3
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceLow

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €30.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 901 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
849 (25% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.21
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.61
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
61 (Above average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
1.30 (rank 1)
Team strength (Elo)
1343
Opponent strength
1620
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Moderate
Trajectory
insufficient
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€2.2M – €6.0M

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -63% (IQR -72% to -11%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ▲Small sample: 849 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Burnley FCPremier LeagueST2484925%110.210.61162013431.30
2024/25Everton FCPremier LeagueST1033210%000.000.46164715671.23
2023/24Chelsea FCPremier LeagueST1345313%110.400.39150216291.14
2023/24Fulham FCPremier LeagueST8812%011.110.66162215241.14
2022/23Chelsea FCPremier LeagueST122878%110.630.41156115791.23
2020/21Vitesse ArnhemEredivisieST30187561%1020.580.44134413940.56
2019/20Chelsea FCPremier LeagueST140%000.000.46159516531.14

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2024/25Fa CupEverton FC12100—
2023/24Fa CupChelsea FC28910—
2022/23Uefa Champions LeagueChelsea FC5111001645
2020/21Knvb BekerVitesse Arnhem430211—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Moussa Djenepo
Premier League · 2023
25€8.0M€2.0Mfell
Kenneth Zohore
Premier League · 2019
25€7.0M€2.0Mfell
Mauricio Cuero
Laliga · 2016
23€3.5M€1.5Mfell
Callum Wilson
Premier League · 2016
24€7.0M€10.0Mrose
Przemyslaw Placheta
Premier League · 2022
24€1.8M€1.5Mflat
Javi Ontiveros
Laliga · 2021
24€5.0M€600kfell
Keinan Davis
Premier League · 2020
22€2.3M€2.5Mflat
Adama Diakhaby
Premier League · 2019
23€8.0M€2.5Mfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
8 Aug 2025ChelseaBurnley€23.0M€12.0M
30 Jun 2025EvertonChelseaFree / loan€12.0M
30 Aug 2024ChelseaEvertonFree / loan€22.0M
30 Jun 2024FulhamChelseaFree / loan€22.0M
1 Feb 2024ChelseaFulhamFree / loan€28.0M
1 Jul 2022Chelsea U21ChelseaUnknown€22.0M
31 May 2022SouthamptonChelsea U23Free / loan€18.0M
10 Aug 2021Chelsea U23SouthamptonFree / loan€3.0M
30 Jun 2021VitesseChelsea U23Free / loan€3.0M
21 Aug 2020Chelsea U23VitesseFree / loan€1.0M
1 Jul 2020Chelsea U18Chelsea U23UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2018Chelsea YouthChelsea U18UnknownData unavailable
11 Sept 2009Tottenham Yth.Chelsea YouthFree / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.

Armando Broja · MoneyballAI