Ilyas Ansah
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Ilyas Ansah's performance-implied value at EUR 2.3M-14.4M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 8.0M-24.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 6.7M-27.3M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.88x the positional average in the league (1903 minutes, league coefficient 0.94). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: 45
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 49.9th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 21.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €14.7M vs market €12.0M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +18% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 39% |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1903 (62% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.38
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.45
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 50 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1392
- Opponent strength
- 1472
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 39%
- Resale range (24m)
- €6.7M – €27.3M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -55% (IQR -67% to -5%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | 1.FC Union Berlin | Bundesliga | ST | 33 | 1903 | 62% | 5 | 3 | 0.38 | 0.44 | 1472 | 1392 | 0.94 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FC Union Berlin | 3 | 235 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emmanuel Emegha Ligue 1 · 2024 | 21 | €12.0M | €25.0M | rose |
| Luiz Araújo Ligue 1 · 2018 | 22 | €7.0M | €5.5M | fell |
| Ciro Immobile Serie A · 2013 | 23 | €7.0M | €12.0M | rose |
| Mounir Chouiar Ligue 1 · 2020 | 21 | €7.2M | €2.5M | fell |
| Ishak Belfodil Serie A · 2013 | 21 | €10.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| Sergio Camello Laliga · 2023 | 22 | €10.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Josip Brekalo Serie A · 2022 | 24 | €15.0M | €3.5M | fell |
| Levin Öztunali Bundesliga · 2018 | 22 | €5.5M | €2.8M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2025 | SC Paderborn | Union Berlin | €4.0M | €4.0M |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Paderborn U19 | SC Paderborn | Unknown | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2022 | SF Siegen U19 | Paderborn U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2021 | E. Dortmund U17 | SF Siegen U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | E. Dortm. Yth. | E. Dortmund U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | VfL Bochum Yth. | E. Dortm. Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2017 | SC Lüd. Yth. | VfL Bochum Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.