Vitaliy Kholod
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Vitaliy Kholod's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-1.0M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-1.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-1.0M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 83
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 15.4th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €466k vs market €600k |
| Expected appreciation | High | +11% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | breakout probability 13% |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.25 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2337 (87% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.03
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 15 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.25 (rank 30)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1106
- Opponent strength
- 1159
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- 13%
- Resale range (24m)
- €381k – €1.0M
Trajectory drivers: team strength down (-93 Elo); relative output down 75% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +0% (IQR +0% to +29%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲League level coefficient 0.25 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 11 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 108%–176%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 82%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Rukh Lviv | Premier Liga | CB | 16 | 1440 | 53% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1159 | 1039 | 0.25 |
| 2025/26 | Karpaty Lviv | Premier Liga | CB | 10 | 897 | 33% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1140 | 1213 | 0.25 |
| 2024/25 | Rukh Lviv | Premier Liga | CB | 28 | 2323 | 86% | 1 | 3 | 0.15 | 0.10 | 1189 | 1199 | 0.28 |
| 2023/24 | Rukh Lviv | Premier Liga | CB | 11 | 695 | 26% | 0 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.09 | 1251 | 1265 | 0.34 |
| 2022/23 | Rukh Lviv | Premier Liga | CB | 9 | 535 | 20% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1316 | 1218 | 0.38 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Ukrainian Cup | Rukh Lviv | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Ukrainian Cup | Rukh Lviv | 2 | 165 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Ukrainian Cup | Rukh Lviv | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Volodymyr Salyuk Premier Liga · 2024 | 22 | €700k | €1.0M | rose |
| Ryan Leak Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 26 | €300k | €175k | fell |
| Frederik Winther Superliga · 2020 | 19 | €525k | €1.0M | rose |
| Jack Baird Scottish Premiership · 2019 | 23 | €300k | €300k | flat |
| Apostolos Konstantopoulos Super League 1 · 2021 | 19 | €500k | €500k | flat |
| Malte Kiilerich Superliga · 2021 | 26 | €400k | €400k | flat |
| Jordan Premier Liga · 2024 | 25 | €800k | €1.0M | rose |
| Luke Robinson Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 23 | €175k | €175k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8 Jan 2026 | Rukh Lviv | Karpaty Lviv | €700k | €900k |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Rukh Lviv U19 | Rukh Lviv | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 2 Sept 2020 | Karpaty U17 | Rukh Lviv U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.