Marwan Al-Sahafi
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Marwan Al-Sahafi's performance-implied value at EUR 0.6M-1.9M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.4M-2.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.4M-2.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.47x the positional average in the league (1196 minutes, league coefficient 0.65). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 37
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 19th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €932k vs market €1.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -16% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | breakout probability 22% |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.65 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1196 (44% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.07
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.19
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 19 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.65 (rank 6)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1365
- Opponent strength
- 1360
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- 22%
- Resale range (24m)
- €411k – €2.4M
Trajectory drivers: changed club; team strength up (+221 Elo); role change ST -> LW; relative output down 67% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -22% (IQR -34% to +120%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1196 league minutes last season.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 78 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 72%–126%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 60%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Royal Antwerp FC | Jupiler Pro League | LW | 21 | 1196 | 44% | 1 | 0 | 0.08 | 0.19 | 1360 | 1365 | 0.65 |
| 2024/25 | Beerschot VA | Jupiler Pro League | ST | 19 | 1321 | 49% | 5 | 1 | 0.41 | 0.74 | 1407 | 1144 | 0.63 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Jupiler Pro League Europe Play Offs | Royal Antwerp FC | 3 | 128 | 0 | 0 | 1338 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Óscar Barreto Liga Portugal · 2018 | 25 | €1.0M | €650k | fell |
| Vedat Muriqi Super Lig · 2017 | 23 | €900k | €2.5M | rose |
| Tornike Okriashvili Jupiler Pro League · 2015 | 23 | €2.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Béni Badibanga Jupiler Pro League · 2016 | 20 | €600k | €400k | fell |
| Kaj Sierhuis Eredivisie · 2019 | 21 | €1.3M | €3.0M | rose |
| Luis Asué Liga Portugal · 2024 | 23 | €700k | €1.5M | rose |
| Thomas Buitink Eredivisie · 2022 | 22 | €1.3M | €600k | fell |
| Guus Hupperts Jupiler Pro League · 2017 | 25 | €800k | €650k | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | Royal Antwerp | Al-Ittihad | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 21 Aug 2025 | Al-Ittihad | Royal Antwerp | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 30 Jun 2025 | Beerschot VA | Al-Ittihad | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 1 Sept 2024 | Al-Ittihad | Beerschot VA | Free / loan | €550k |
| 12 Jun 2022 | Al-Ittihad U19 | Al-Ittihad | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.