Deniz Gül
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Deniz Gül's performance-implied value at EUR 1.8M-10.8M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 3.4M-8.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.3M-13.3M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.56x the positional average in the league (1171 minutes, league coefficient 0.58). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 70
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 56.3th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €5.8M vs market €5.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very high | +40% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 27% |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1171 (38% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.46
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.29
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 56 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1594
- Opponent strength
- 1307
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 27%
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.3M – €13.3M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -5% (IQR -42% to +45%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1171 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 58 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 71%–130%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 66%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Porto | Liga Portugal | ST | 29 | 1171 | 38% | 5 | 1 | 0.46 | 0.29 | 1307 | 1594 | 0.58 |
| 2024/25 | FC Porto | Liga Portugal | ST | 14 | 442 | 14% | 1 | 0 | 0.20 | 0.24 | 1274 | 1508 | 0.51 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | FC Porto | 10 | 392 | 1 | 1 | 1466 |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Turkiye | 2 | 35 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | FC Porto | 6 | 87 | 1 | 0 | 1565 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bruma Super Lig · 2015 | 21 | €7.3M | €11.0M | rose |
| Casper Terho Jupiler Pro League · 2024 | 21 | €2.2M | €1.0M | fell |
| Kerim Frei Super Lig · 2015 | 22 | €5.0M | €4.5M | flat |
| Manor Solomon Premier Liga · 2020 | 21 | €5.8M | €18.0M | rose |
| Abel Ruiz Liga Portugal · 2021 | 21 | €7.0M | €10.0M | rose |
| Fernando Premier Liga · 2019 | 20 | €5.5M | €2.5M | fell |
| Patrik Wålemark Eredivisie · 2023 | 22 | €4.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Artem Besedin Premier Liga · 2019 | 23 | €2.0M | €2.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Aug 2024 | Hammarby | Porto | €4.5M | €2.0M |
| 30 Nov 2023 | Hammarby TFF | Hammarby | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Feb 2023 | Hammarby | Hammarby TFF | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 20 Jan 2023 | Hammarby U19 | Hammarby | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2021 | Djursholm U17 | Hammarby U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.