Marcel Sabitzer
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Marcel Sabitzer's performance-implied value at EUR 6.2M-13.9M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.5M-4.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.4M-3.4M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.48x the positional average in the league (1823 minutes, league coefficient 0.94). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 16
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 90th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 32.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €2.1M vs market €6.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -64% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1823 (60% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.15
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.11
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 90 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1656
- Opponent strength
- 1518
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.4M – €3.4M
Trajectory drivers: relative output up 37% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -42% (IQR -54% to -39%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ▲Age 32: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | CM | 26 | 1823 | 60% | 1 | 2 | 0.15 | 0.11 | 1518 | 1656 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | CM | 26 | 1616 | 53% | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.07 | 1468 | 1680 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | CM | 25 | 1963 | 64% | 4 | 3 | 0.32 | 0.17 | 1490 | 1716 | 1.01 |
| 2022/23 | Manchester United | Premier League | CM | 11 | 627 | 18% | 0 | 1 | 0.14 | 0.13 | 1541 | 1699 | 1.23 |
| 2022/23 | Bayern Munich | Bundesliga | CM | 15 | 625 | 20% | 1 | 1 | 0.29 | 0.11 | 1528 | 1817 | 1.04 |
| 2021/22 | Bayern Munich | Bundesliga | CM | 25 | 897 | 29% | 1 | 1 | 0.20 | 0.09 | 1468 | 1847 | 1.05 |
| 2021/22 | RB Leipzig | Bundesliga | CM | 2 | 48 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.15 | 1475 | 1663 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | RB Leipzig | Bundesliga | CM | 27 | 2029 | 66% | 8 | 4 | 0.53 | 0.30 | 1549 | 1657 | 1.06 |
| 2019/20 | RB Leipzig | Bundesliga | RW | 32 | 2506 | 82% | 9 | 8 | 0.61 | 0.37 | 1533 | 1700 | 1.06 |
| 2018/19 | RB Leipzig | Bundesliga | RW | 30 | 2353 | 77% | 4 | 5 | 0.34 | 0.27 | 1500 | 1650 | 1.05 |
| 2017/18 | RB Leipzig | Bundesliga | RW | 22 | 1791 | 59% | 3 | 6 | 0.45 | 0.40 | 1499 | 1570 | 1.04 |
| 2016/17 | RB Leipzig | Bundesliga | RW | 32 | 2601 | 85% | 8 | 4 | 0.42 | 0.36 | 1519 | 1594 | 1.06 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Borussia Dortmund | 6 | 344 | 0 | 2 | 1619 |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Austria | 3 | 270 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Dortmund | 2 | 181 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Borussia Dortmund | 11 | 845 | 0 | 0 | 1621 |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Dortmund | 2 | 111 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | Borussia Dortmund | 12 | 929 | 1 | 5 | 1731 |
| 2023/24 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Dortmund | 3 | 142 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | Bayern Munich | 6 | 279 | 0 | 0 | 1689 |
| 2022/23 | Fa Cup | Manchester United | 3 | 206 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | Manchester United | 3 | 188 | 2 | 0 | 1550 |
| 2022/23 | Franz Beckenbauer Supercup | Bayern Munich | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1663 |
| 2022/23 | Dfb Pokal | Bayern Munich | 2 | 15 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | Bayern Munich | 5 | 132 | 0 | 0 | 1667 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League | RB Leipzig | 7 | 567 | 0 | 1 | 1688 |
| 2020/21 | Dfb Pokal | RB Leipzig | 5 | 373 | 1 | 2 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League | RB Leipzig | 9 | 807 | 4 | 3 | 1664 |
| 2019/20 | Dfb Pokal | RB Leipzig | 3 | 245 | 3 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Dfb Pokal | RB Leipzig | 5 | 480 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League | RB Leipzig | 5 | 272 | 0 | 1 | 1563 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | RB Leipzig | 3 | 182 | 1 | 0 | 1365 |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Champions League | RB Leipzig | 5 | 395 | 0 | 3 | 1631 |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Europa League | RB Leipzig | 5 | 261 | 0 | 0 | 1710 |
| 2017/18 | Dfb Pokal | RB Leipzig | 2 | 170 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Dfb Pokal | RB Leipzig | 1 | 117 | 1 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Axel Witsel Bundesliga · 2022 | 33 | €4.0M | €3.5M | flat |
| Kevin Kampl Bundesliga · 2022 | 32 | €6.0M | €3.5M | fell |
| Matteo Darmian Serie A · 2023 | 34 | €4.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Walter Gargano Serie A · 2015 | 31 | €5.0M | €1.8M | fell |
| Sebastian Rode Bundesliga · 2021 | 31 | €4.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Davide Zappacosta Serie A · 2024 | 32 | €6.0M | €3.5M | fell |
| Idrissa Gueye Ligue 1 · 2022 | 33 | €12.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Thiago Mendes Ligue 1 · 2023 | 31 | €5.0M | €3.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Jul 2023 | Bayern Munich | Dortmund | €19.0M | €20.0M |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Man Utd | Bayern Munich | Free / loan | €20.0M |
| 31 Jan 2023 | Bayern Munich | Man Utd | Free / loan | €20.0M |
| 30 Aug 2021 | Leipzig | Bayern Munich | €15.0M | €42.0M |
| 30 Jun 2015 | Salzburg | Leipzig | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 2 Jul 2014 | Leipzig | Salzburg | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Rapid Vienna | Leipzig | €2.0M | €2.0M |
| 4 Jan 2013 | Admira Wacker | Rapid Vienna | €350k | €1.2M |
| 1 Jul 2010 | AKA Admira U18 | Admira Wacker | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2010 | Admira U17 | Admira U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 15 Jul 2009 | AKA Austria U15 | Admira U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 24 Feb 2009 | Wr. Neustadt Jgd | Austria U15 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2008 | GAK Youth | Wr. Neustadt Jgd | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 28 Aug 2001 | Villach Yth. | GAK Youth | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.