Pedro Carvalho
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Pedro Carvalho's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.9M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.4M-1.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.5M-1.6M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 35
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 16.9th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 23.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €940k vs market €800k |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | +4% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1249 (41% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.07
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.09
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 17 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1305
- Opponent strength
- 1292
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €493k – €1.6M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 16 pts; role change RM -> RB; relative output down 53% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -20% (IQR -58% to +90%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1249 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 66 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 57%–168%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 76%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | GD Estoril Praia | Liga Portugal | RB | 26 | 1249 | 41% | 0 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.09 | 1292 | 1305 | 0.58 |
| 2024/25 | GD Estoril Praia | Liga Portugal | RM | 19 | 758 | 25% | 0 | 2 | 0.24 | 0.31 | 1369 | 1302 | 0.51 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oumar Diakhité Liga Portugal · 2017 | 24 | €700k | €450k | fell |
| Clinton Mata Jupiler Pro League · 2016 | 24 | €700k | €2.5M | rose |
| Robbie D'Haese Jupiler Pro League · 2021 | 22 | €1.5M | €450k | fell |
| Nikolay Poyarkov Premier Liga · 2021 | 22 | €900k | €350k | fell |
| Edgar Ié Liga Portugal · 2017 | 23 | €500k | €3.5M | rose |
| Aleksandr Filin Premier Liga · 2020 | 24 | €650k | €1.0M | rose |
| Mateo Stamatov Premier Liga · 2023 | 24 | €700k | €700k | flat |
| Artur Novotryasov Premier Liga · 2016 | 24 | €400k | €175k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24 Jul 2024 | Belenenses | Estoril | Unknown | €275k |
| 1 Jul 2022 | Belenenses U19 | Belenenses | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Belenenses U17 | Belenenses U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Sporting U17 | Belenenses U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Sporting Sub-15 | Sporting U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Sporting Yth. | Sporting Sub-15 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.