Juanse Rodríguez
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Juanse Rodríguez's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-1.0M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.8M-3.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.8M-4.7M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.49x the positional average in the league (1979 minutes, league coefficient 0.58). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 60
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 14.6th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Very favorable | 20.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €1.3M vs market €1.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very high | +47% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 27% |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1979 (65% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.06
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 15 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1194
- Opponent strength
- 1327
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 27%
- Resale range (24m)
- €765k – €4.7M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -27% (IQR -39% to -13%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 58 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 72%–151%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 78%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | CD Tondela | Liga Portugal | DM | 29 | 1979 | 65% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1327 | 1194 | 0.58 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Funso Ojo Jupiler Pro League · 2013 | 22 | €800k | €500k | fell |
| Diogo Nascimento Liga Portugal · 2024 | 22 | €700k | €4.0M | rose |
| Lazare Amani Jupiler Pro League · 2018 | 20 | €1.0M | €800k | fell |
| Ricky van Haaren Eredivisie · 2013 | 22 | €500k | €400k | fell |
| Navarone Foor Eredivisie · 2013 | 21 | €1.2M | €600k | fell |
| Yaw Ackah Liga Portugal · 2020 | 21 | €725k | €400k | fell |
| Claude Gonçalves Liga Portugal · 2017 | 23 | €600k | €400k | fell |
| Robert Mejía Super Lig · 2023 | 23 | €900k | €1.0M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | Tondela | LDU Quito | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 23 Jul 2025 | LDU Quito | Tondela | Free / loan | €150k |
| 1 Jul 2024 | LDU Quito U20 | LDU Quito | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.