Ivan Pakholyuk
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Ivan Pakholyuk's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-1.8M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.6M-1.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.6M-3.0M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Around 18 months left: some discount usually possible.
Bargain Index: 92
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 29.8th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €759k vs market €1.0M |
| Expected appreciation | High | +28% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | breakout probability 22% |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.25 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2430 (90% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 30 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.25 (rank 30)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1200
- Opponent strength
- 1173
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- 22%
- Resale range (24m)
- €555k – €3.0M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -5% (IQR -28% to +91%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲League level coefficient 0.25 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 37 (all positions)
- Relative output kept
- 87%–128%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 86%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Kolos Kovalivka | Premier Liga | GK | 27 | 2430 | 90% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1173 | 1200 | 0.25 |
| 2024/25 | Kolos Kovalivka | Premier Liga | GK | 26 | 2340 | 87% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1204 | 1186 | 0.28 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christos Mandas Super League 1 · 2023 | 22 | €1.0M | €10.0M | rose |
| Zach Hemming Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 24 | €500k | €450k | flat |
| Will Dennis Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 24 | €350k | €350k | flat |
| İrfan Can Eğribayat Super Lig · 2021 | 23 | €3.3M | €1.9M | fell |
| Oliver Christensen Superliga · 2021 | 22 | €1.5M | €4.0M | rose |
| Pavlo Isenko Premier Liga · 2024 | 21 | €700k | €1.2M | rose |
| Jeppe Höjbjerg Superliga · 2019 | 24 | €600k | €200k | fell |
| Shamal George Scottish Premiership · 2023 | 25 | €325k | €250k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2024 | Kolos U19 | Kolos Kovalivka | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Aug 2020 | Kolos U17 | Kolos U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.