İrfan Can Eğribayat
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates İrfan Can Eğribayat's performance-implied value at EUR 0.6M-1.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.3M-1.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.5M-1.3M. Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Average | 45.9th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 28 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €437k vs market €1.2M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -30% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 285 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 540 (18% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 46 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1393
- Opponent strength
- 1228
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €456k – €1.3M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 18 pts; team strength down (-109 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -16% (IQR -52% to +27%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Small sample: 540 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 138 (all positions)
- Relative output kept
- 76%–145%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 59%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Fenerbahce | Super Lig | GK | 3 | 270 | 9% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1228 | 1477 | 0.40 |
| 2025/26 | Samsunspor | Super Lig | GK | 3 | 270 | 9% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1187 | 1310 | 0.40 |
| 2024/25 | Fenerbahce | Super Lig | GK | 13 | 1170 | 36% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1273 | 1503 | 0.39 |
| 2023/24 | Fenerbahce | Super Lig | GK | 3 | 270 | 8% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1265 | 1583 | 0.45 |
| 2022/23 | Fenerbahce | Super Lig | GK | 8 | 720 | 22% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1278 | 1516 | 0.50 |
| 2021/22 | Göztepe | Super Lig | GK | 30 | 2700 | 79% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1249 | 1097 | 0.42 |
| 2020/21 | Göztepe | Super Lig | GK | 35 | 3150 | 88% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1279 | 1200 | 0.37 |
| 2016/17 | Adanaspor | Super Lig | GK | 2 | 180 | 6% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1439 | 1199 | 0.62 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Fenerbahce | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | 1599 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Fenerbahce | 6 | 570 | 0 | 0 | 1499 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Fenerbahce | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | 1479 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Panagiotis Glykos Super League 1 · 2016 | 30 | €1.0M | €700k | fell |
| Muhammed Şengezer Super Lig · 2024 | 27 | €1.7M | €3.5M | rose |
| Okan Kocuk Super Lig · 2021 | 26 | €700k | €850k | rose |
| Cican Stankovic Super League 1 · 2023 | 31 | €1.5M | €500k | fell |
| Davy Roef Jupiler Pro League · 2022 | 28 | €1.5M | €1.5M | flat |
| Egor Baburin Premier Liga · 2021 | 28 | €1.0M | €500k | fell |
| Aleksandar Jovanovic Superliga · 2020 | 28 | €550k | €800k | rose |
| Zacharie Boucher Super League 1 · 2021 | 29 | €600k | €250k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | Samsunspor | Fenerbahçe | Free / loan | €1.2M |
| 9 Jan 2026 | Fenerbahçe | Samsunspor | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Göztepe | Fenerbahçe | €1.2M | €1.9M |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Fenerbahçe | Göztepe | Free / loan | €1.9M |
| 3 Aug 2022 | Göztepe | Fenerbahçe | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 7 Sept 2020 | Adanaspor | Göztepe | €500k | €300k |
| 12 May 2015 | Adanaspor U21 | Adanaspor | Unknown | €50k |
| 9 Feb 2015 | Adanaspor U19 | Adanaspor U21 | Unknown | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Adanaspor Yth | Adanaspor U19 | Unknown | €50k |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.