Chris Wood

34 yrs · Striker · New Zealand
Nottingham Forest · Premier League · Foot: right · Height: 191 cm
Risk: Very HighConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2027
No index
CompareCheaper alternative
Market value
€5.0M
Updated 7 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€1.9M – €5.8M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€1.8M – €5.8M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€1.4M – €2.9M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€3.9M – €3.9M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€1.9M – €5.8M
Model value (performance-implied)€1.8M – €5.8M
Projected value (24 months)€1.4M – €2.9M
Dashed line: current market value (€5.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Chris Wood's performance-implied value at EUR 1.8M-5.8M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.9M-5.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.4M-2.9M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.73x the positional average in the league (907 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.

Bargain Index: not assigned

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

Age above 33 (outside validated pool)

PerformanceElite94.6th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable34.6 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €2.6M vs market €5.0M
Expected appreciationVery low-67% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapLargeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 1.3
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskVery High
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €18.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
907 (27% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.30
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.37
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
95 (Elite)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
1.30 (rank 1)
Team strength (Elo)
1635
Opponent strength
1549
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
declining
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€1.4M – €2.9M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 61 pts; team strength up (+63 Elo); relative output down 41% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -50% (IQR -64% to -16%).

Risk profile

Overall: Very High

  • ▲Age 35: resale value typically declines.
  • ⚠Limited sample: 907 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
  • ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
  • ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Nottingham ForestPremier LeagueST1590727%300.300.37154916351.30
2024/25Nottingham ForestPremier LeagueST36297987%2030.690.66156315731.23
2023/24Nottingham ForestPremier LeagueST31180753%1410.750.78154814281.14
2022/23Newcastle UnitedPremier LeagueST1844013%200.410.48159316781.23
2022/23Nottingham ForestPremier LeagueST737611%100.240.51147114331.23
2021/22Burnley FCPremier LeagueST17137940%300.200.44157614421.17
2021/22Newcastle UnitedPremier LeagueST17132839%200.140.37156615451.17
2020/21Burnley FCPremier LeagueST33275180%1230.490.58156414801.19
2019/20Burnley FCPremier LeagueST32244672%1410.550.63158315351.14
2018/19Burnley FCPremier LeagueST38259576%1020.420.49155115011.22
2017/18Burnley FCPremier LeagueST24163548%1010.610.61149815021.15
2014/15Leicester CityPremier LeagueST71073%100.840.65151014611.06

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26World CupNew Zealand327002—
2025/26Uefa Europa LeagueNottingham Forest5237201660
2024/25Fa CupNottingham Forest415500—
2023/24Fa CupNottingham Forest330010—
2022/23Fa CupNewcastle United14500—
2021/22Fa CupBurnley FC14500—
2020/21Fa CupBurnley FC17700—
2019/20Fa CupBurnley FC213900—
2018/19Uefa Europa League QualifyingBurnley FC5251211451
2018/19Fa CupBurnley FC24410—
2014/15Fa CupLeicester City13100—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Willian
Premier League · 2021
33€9.0M€3.0Mfell
Rickie Lambert
Premier League · 2015
33€3.0M€1.5Mfell
Hélder Postiga
Laliga · 2014
32€2.0M€750kfell
Raúl Jiménez
Premier League · 2023
32€6.0M€5.0Mflat
Klaas-Jan Huntelaar
Bundesliga · 2017
34€2.0M€1.0Mfell
Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang
Premier League · 2023
34€4.0M€3.5Mflat
Charles
Laliga · 2017
33€1.5M€2.0Mrose
Michail Antonio
Premier League · 2023
33€7.0M€700kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jul 2023NewcastleNott'm Forest€17.0M€8.0M
30 Jun 2023Nott'm ForestNewcastleFree / loan€8.0M
20 Jan 2023NewcastleNott'm ForestFree / loan€10.0M
13 Jan 2022BurnleyNewcastle€30.0M€6.0M
21 Aug 2017LeedsBurnley€16.4M€6.0M
1 Jul 2015LeicesterLeeds€3.6M€1.0M
24 Apr 2015IpswichLeicesterFree / loan€1.0M
27 Feb 2015LeicesterIpswichFree / loan€1.0M
1 Jan 2013West BromLeicester€1.2M€1.0M
28 Dec 2012MillwallWest BromFree / loan€1.0M
17 Sept 2012West BromMillwallFree / loan€1.0M
1 May 2012Bristol CityWest BromFree / loan€750k
12 Jan 2012West BromBristol CityFree / loan€750k
3 Jan 2012BirminghamWest BromFree / loan€750k
5 Aug 2011West BromBirminghamFree / loan€750k
31 May 2011BrightonWest BromFree / loan€750k
19 Nov 2010West BromBrightonFree / loan€750k
14 Nov 2010BarnsleyWest BromFree / loan€750k
23 Sept 2010West BromBarnsleyFree / loan€750k
1 Jul 2009West Brom U18West BromUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2008Waikato FCWest Brom U18Free / loanData unavailable
1 Jan 2008Waikato FC Yth.Waikato FCUnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.