Ousmane Diao
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Ousmane Diao's performance-implied value at EUR 1.7M-7.9M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 5.6M-13.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 5.8M-20.4M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 77
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Average | 53.3th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Neutral | est. €8.4M vs market €8.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very high | +39% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 29% |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.47 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1112 (56% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.16
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.07
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 53 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.47 (rank 12)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1562
- Opponent strength
- 1268
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- 29%
- Resale range (24m)
- €5.8M – €20.4M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 25 pts; team strength up (+164 Elo); league level up (+45 Elo); relative output down 32% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +58% (IQR -52% to +159%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ⚠Limited sample: 1112 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.47 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 24 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 60%–139%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 71%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Midtjylland | Superliga | CB | 14 | 1112 | 56% | 1 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.07 | 1268 | 1562 | 0.47 |
| 2024/25 | FC Midtjylland | Superliga | CB | 19 | 1612 | 81% | 3 | 1 | 0.22 | 0.10 | 1315 | 1399 | 0.38 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League | FC Midtjylland | 9 | 725 | 2 | 1 | 1515 |
| 2025/26 | Oddset Pokalen | FC Midtjylland | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | FC Midtjylland | 1 | 25 | 0 | 0 | 1371 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | FC Midtjylland | 10 | 900 | 2 | 1 | 1530 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | FC Midtjylland | 5 | 450 | 1 | 0 | 1397 |
| 2024/25 | Oddset Pokalen | FC Midtjylland | 2 | 164 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Terence Kongolo Eredivisie · 2017 | 23 | €10.0M | €15.0M | rose |
| Kieran Tierney Scottish Premiership · 2019 | 22 | €12.5M | €32.0M | rose |
| Brandon Mechele Jupiler Pro League · 2015 | 22 | €4.5M | €1.2M | fell |
| Konstantinos Manolas Super League 1 · 2014 | 23 | €6.0M | €24.0M | rose |
| Lutsharel Geertruida Eredivisie · 2022 | 22 | €12.0M | €32.0M | rose |
| Calvin Bassey Eredivisie · 2023 | 23 | €15.0M | €25.0M | rose |
| Leonardo Koutris Super League 1 · 2019 | 24 | €6.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Andy Nájar Jupiler Pro League · 2016 | 23 | €6.0M | €3.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2024 | Mafra | Midtjylland | €3.0M | €1.0M |
| 1 Jan 2023 | AF Darou Salam | Mafra | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.