David de Gea
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates David de Gea's performance-implied value at EUR 1.4M-4.0M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.2M-4.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.2M-2.9M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Age above 33 (outside validated pool)
| Performance | Elite | 96.6th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 35.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €2.6M vs market €3.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -49% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 3330 (97% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 97 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1506
- Opponent strength
- 1491
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.2M – €2.9M
Trajectory drivers: team strength down (-74 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -65% (IQR -70% to -52%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ▲Age 36: resale value typically declines.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | ACF Fiorentina | Serie A | GK | 37 | 3330 | 97% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1491 | 1506 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | ACF Fiorentina | Serie A | GK | 35 | 3150 | 92% | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 1507 | 1580 | 0.99 |
| 2022/23 | Manchester United | Premier League | GK | 38 | 3420 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1562 | 1699 | 1.23 |
| 2021/22 | Manchester United | Premier League | GK | 38 | 3420 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1565 | 1609 | 1.17 |
| 2020/21 | Manchester United | Premier League | GK | 26 | 2295 | 67% | 0 | 1 | 0.04 | 0.01 | 1542 | 1741 | 1.19 |
| 2019/20 | Manchester United | Premier League | GK | 38 | 3420 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1581 | 1720 | 1.14 |
| 2018/19 | Manchester United | Premier League | GK | 38 | 3420 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1538 | 1669 | 1.22 |
| 2017/18 | Manchester United | Premier League | GK | 37 | 3330 | 97% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1536 | 1747 | 1.15 |
| 2016/17 | Manchester United | Premier League | GK | 35 | 3150 | 92% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1535 | 1694 | 1.07 |
| 2015/16 | Manchester United | Premier League | GK | 34 | 3060 | 89% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1525 | 1619 | 1.08 |
| 2014/15 | Manchester United | Premier League | GK | 37 | 3314 | 97% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1540 | 1670 | 1.06 |
| 2013/14 | Manchester United | Premier League | GK | 37 | 3330 | 97% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1529 | 1683 | 1.12 |
| 2012/13 | Manchester United | Premier League | GK | 28 | 2520 | 74% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1519 | 1742 | 1.07 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | ACF Fiorentina | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1211 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | ACF Fiorentina | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | 1418 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | Manchester United | 12 | 1080 | 0 | 0 | 1570 |
| 2022/23 | Fa Cup | Manchester United | 6 | 570 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | Manchester United | 7 | 630 | 0 | 0 | 1652 |
| 2021/22 | Fa Cup | Manchester United | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League | Manchester United | 5 | 480 | 0 | 0 | 1586 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League | Manchester United | 5 | 450 | 0 | 0 | 1685 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League | Manchester United | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1612 |
| 2019/20 | Fa Cup | Manchester United | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Champions League | Manchester United | 9 | 810 | 0 | 0 | 1742 |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Champions League | Manchester United | 6 | 540 | 0 | 0 | 1575 |
| 2017/18 | Fa Cup | Manchester United | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Super Cup | Manchester United | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1940 |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Europa League | Manchester United | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | 1543 |
| 2016/17 | Fa Cup | Manchester United | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Community Shield | Manchester United | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1659 |
| 2015/16 | Fa Cup | Manchester United | 6 | 570 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2015/16 | Uefa Champions League | Manchester United | 6 | 540 | 0 | 0 | 1647 |
| 2015/16 | Uefa Europa League | Manchester United | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1610 |
| 2014/15 | Fa Cup | Manchester United | 5 | 450 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2013/14 | Uefa Champions League | Manchester United | 10 | 900 | 0 | 1 | 1722 |
| 2013/14 | Community Shield | Manchester United | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1438 |
| 2012/13 | Uefa Champions League | Manchester United | 7 | 630 | 0 | 0 | 1570 |
| 2012/13 | Fa Cup | Manchester United | 5 | 450 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andrea Consigli Serie A · 2021 | 34 | €3.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Sergey Ryzhikov Premier Liga · 2014 | 34 | €4.5M | €1.5M | fell |
| Kevin Trapp Bundesliga · 2024 | 34 | €4.0M | €1.8M | fell |
| Mickaël Landreau Ligue 1 · 2013 | 34 | €3.0M | €1.8M | fell |
| Oliver Baumann Bundesliga · 2024 | 34 | €3.0M | €2.5M | flat |
| Marco Bizot Ligue 1 · 2024 | 33 | €4.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Anthony Lopes Ligue 1 · 2024 | 34 | €4.0M | €900k | fell |
| Rui Patrício Serie A · 2023 | 35 | €5.0M | €800k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 Aug 2024 | Without Club | Fiorentina | Unknown | €5.0M |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Man Utd | Without Club | Unknown | €13.0M |
| 1 Jul 2011 | Atlético | Man Utd | €25.0M | €12.0M |
| 1 Jul 2009 | Atl. Madrileño | Atlético | Unknown | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2008 | Atl. Madrid U19 | Atl. Madrileño | Unknown | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2007 | Atl. Madrid U17 | Atl. Madrid U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.