David Martínez
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates David Martínez's performance-implied value at EUR 0.2M-0.5M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.7M-1.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.6M-2.7M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.83x the positional average in the league (1150 minutes, league coefficient 0.43). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Around 18 months left: some discount usually possible.
Bargain Index: 84
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 2.7th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Favorable | 22 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €792k vs market €1.2M |
| Expected appreciation | Neutral | -4% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Moderate | breakout probability 11% |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1150 (49% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.16
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.23
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 3 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.42 (rank 17)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1129
- Opponent strength
- 1257
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Moderate
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 11%
- Resale range (24m)
- €607k – €2.7M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +12% (IQR -7% to +29%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1150 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 14 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 67%–189%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 64%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Volou Neos Podosferikos Syllogos | Super League 1 | DM | 15 | 1150 | 49% | 2 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.23 | 1257 | 1129 | 0.43 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Kypello Elladas | Volou Neos Podosferikos Syllogos | 3 | 149 | 0 | 1 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kings Kangwa Premier Liga · 2022 | 23 | €1.2M | €1.5M | rose |
| Stephen Kelly Scottish Premiership · 2023 | 23 | €500k | €550k | flat |
| Christos Donis Super League 1 · 2017 | 23 | €500k | €700k | rose |
| Farouk Miya Super Lig · 2020 | 23 | €2.0M | €1.2M | fell |
| Lance Duijvestijn Eredivisie · 2024 | 25 | €700k | €800k | flat |
| Rudy Jupiler Pro League · 2013 | 24 | €800k | €600k | fell |
| Evert Linthorst Eredivisie · 2021 | 21 | €500k | €500k | flat |
| Mads Frøkjær Superliga · 2022 | 23 | €800k | €3.2M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30 Jun 2026 | Volos NFC | Independiente | Free / loan | €1.2M |
| 25 Jul 2025 | Independiente | Volos NFC | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 1 Jan 2024 | Indep'te II | Independiente | Unknown | €75k |
| 1 Jan 2023 | Indep'te U20 | Indep'te II | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.