Emre Can

32 yrs · Centre-back (also CM, DM) · Germany
Borussia Dortmund · Bundesliga · Foot: right · Height: 186 cm
Risk: Very HighConfidence: LowSample: LowDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2027
No index
CompareCheaper alternative
Market value
€3.0M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€1.0M – €2.6M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€3.8M – €13.7M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€961k – €2.3M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
€1.2M – €12.7M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€1.0M – €2.6M
Model value (performance-implied)€3.8M – €13.7M
Projected value (24 months)€961k – €2.3M
Dashed line: current market value (€3.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Emre Can's performance-implied value at EUR 3.8M-13.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.0M-2.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.0M-2.3M. Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.

Bargain Index: not assigned

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)

PerformanceElite91.5th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable32.5 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €1.3M vs market €3.0M
Expected appreciationVery low-47% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery largeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.94
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskVery High
Data confidenceLow

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €40.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1269 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
623 (20% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.43
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.11
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
92 (Elite)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.94 (rank 3)
Team strength (Elo)
1656
Opponent strength
1462
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
declining
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€961k – €2.3M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 48 pts.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -69% (IQR -77% to -48%).

Risk profile

Overall: Very High

  • ▲Small sample: 623 league minutes last season.
  • ▲Age 32: resale value typically declines.
  • ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
  • ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
  • ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Borussia DortmundBundesligaCB962320%300.430.11146216560.94
2024/25Borussia DortmundBundesligaCB31210269%310.170.09146816800.94
2023/24Borussia DortmundBundesligaDM25195664%220.180.10149617161.01
2022/23Borussia DortmundBundesligaDM27189662%210.140.09153616911.04
2021/22Borussia DortmundBundesligaDM24168955%510.320.16151616431.05
2020/21Borussia DortmundBundesligaCB28213370%140.210.12152617031.06
2019/20Borussia DortmundBundesligaDM1295831%210.280.13152717001.06
2019/20Juventus FCSerie ACM82798%000.000.08142316430.82
2018/19Juventus FCSerie ADM29180753%410.250.10145317010.78
2017/18Liverpool FCPremier LeagueDM26209461%350.340.18155017791.15
2016/17Liverpool FCPremier LeagueDM32236869%520.270.17152216661.07
2015/16Liverpool FCPremier LeagueDM30249273%100.040.06154616391.08
2014/15Liverpool FCPremier LeagueCB27206560%100.040.05153915891.06
2013/14Bayer 04 LeverkusenBundesligaDM29218972%330.250.16155216021.03
2012/13Bayern MunichBundesligaCB42147%100.420.07147318941.11

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Champions LeagueBorussia Dortmund6267001673
2025/26Dfb PokalBorussia Dortmund19000—
2024/25Uefa Champions LeagueBorussia Dortmund12940211611
2024/25Dfb PokalBorussia Dortmund217910—
2023/24Uefa Champions LeagueBorussia Dortmund11913001717
2023/24Dfb PokalBorussia Dortmund218000—
2022/23Uefa Champions LeagueBorussia Dortmund7564001667
2022/23Dfb PokalBorussia Dortmund427710—
2021/22Dfb PokalBorussia Dortmund19000—
2021/22Uefa Europa LeagueBorussia Dortmund190001633
2021/22Uefa Champions LeagueBorussia Dortmund274001688
2020/21Uefa Champions LeagueBorussia Dortmund6468001736
2020/21Dfb PokalBorussia Dortmund545211—
2020/21Franz Beckenbauer SupercupBorussia Dortmund190001919
2019/20Uefa Champions LeagueBorussia Dortmund2179001780
2019/20Dfb PokalBorussia Dortmund1100—
2018/19Uefa Champions LeagueJuventus FC6334001659
2018/19Italy CupJuventus FC19000—
2018/19Supercoppa ItalianaJuventus FC126001542
2017/18Uefa Champions LeagueLiverpool FC8533101540
2017/18Uefa Champions League QualifyingLiverpool FC2160201590
2017/18Fa CupLiverpool FC215500—
2016/17Fa CupLiverpool FC27900—
2015/16Uefa Europa LeagueLiverpool FC141183121570
2014/15Fa CupLiverpool FC654001—
2014/15Uefa Europa LeagueLiverpool FC2210001598
2014/15Uefa Champions LeagueLiverpool FC297001890
2013/14Uefa Champions LeagueBayer 04 Leverkusen7470011699
2013/14Dfb PokalBayer 04 Leverkusen330011—
2012/13Dfb PokalBayern Munich218000—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
José Luis Palomino
Serie A · 2023
33€2.5M€700kfell
Milan Bisevac
Ligue 1 · 2015
32€2.5M€500kfell
Antonio Valencia
Premier League · 2016
31€8.0M€8.0Mflat
Manuel Pasqual
Serie A · 2015
33€1.5M€500kfell
Alex Sandro
Serie A · 2024
33€2.0M€1.0Mfell
Lamine Sané
Bundesliga · 2018
31€2.0M€475kfell
Juan Manuel Vargas
Serie A · 2015
32€2.5M€400kfell
Yuri Berchiche
Laliga · 2022
32€3.0M€1.8Mfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jul 2020JuventusDortmund€25.0M€24.0M
30 Jun 2020DortmundJuventusFree / loan€24.0M
31 Jan 2020JuventusDortmundFree / loan€30.0M
1 Jul 2018LiverpoolJuventusFree / loan€30.0M
1 Jul 2014LeverkusenLiverpool€12.0M€7.5M
2 Aug 2013Bayern MunichLeverkusen€5.0M€1.5M
1 Jul 2012FC Bayern IIBayern MunichUnknown€600k
1 Jul 2011FC Bayern U19FC Bayern IIUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2010FC Bayern U17FC Bayern U19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2009Frankfurt Yth.FC Bayern U17Free / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2006Blau-Gelb Yth.Frankfurt Yth.Free / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.

Emre Can · MoneyballAI