Alphonse Areola
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Alphonse Areola's performance-implied value at EUR 2.1M-5.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.5M-4.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.1M-2.6M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Age above 33 (outside validated pool)
| Performance | Elite | 90.7th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 33.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €2.0M vs market €4.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -60% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1800 (53% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.05
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.05
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 91 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1520
- Opponent strength
- 1601
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.1M – €2.6M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -67% (IQR -76% to -56%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Age 33: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | West Ham United | Premier League | GK | 20 | 1800 | 53% | 0 | 1 | 0.05 | 0.05 | 1601 | 1520 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | West Ham United | Premier League | GK | 26 | 2259 | 66% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1582 | 1520 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | West Ham United | Premier League | GK | 31 | 2700 | 79% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1578 | 1540 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | West Ham United | Premier League | GK | 5 | 307 | 9% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1623 | 1600 | 1.23 |
| 2021/22 | West Ham United | Premier League | GK | 1 | 90 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1691 | 1580 | 1.17 |
| 2020/21 | Fulham FC | Premier League | GK | 36 | 3240 | 95% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1571 | 1352 | 1.19 |
| 2019/20 | Real Madrid | Laliga | GK | 4 | 360 | 11% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1428 | 1812 | 1.16 |
| 2019/20 | Paris Saint-Germain | Ligue 1 | GK | 3 | 270 | 11% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1420 | 1779 | 0.82 |
| 2018/19 | Paris Saint-Germain | Ligue 1 | GK | 21 | 1890 | 55% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1439 | 1714 | 0.82 |
| 2017/18 | Paris Saint-Germain | Ligue 1 | GK | 34 | 3060 | 89% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1441 | 1774 | 0.85 |
| 2016/17 | Paris Saint-Germain | Ligue 1 | GK | 15 | 1296 | 38% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1416 | 1757 | 0.88 |
| 2015/16 | Villarreal CF | Laliga | GK | 32 | 2880 | 84% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1556 | 1630 | 1.17 |
| 2014/15 | SC Bastia | Ligue 1 | GK | 36 | 3240 | 95% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1438 | 1402 | 0.80 |
| 2012/13 | Paris Saint-Germain | Ligue 1 | GK | 2 | 104 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1390 | 1708 | 0.88 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | West Ham United | 3 | 360 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | West Ham United | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1458 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | West Ham United | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1297 |
| 2022/23 | Fa Cup | West Ham United | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | West Ham United | 11 | 1020 | 0 | 0 | 1547 |
| 2021/22 | Fa Cup | West Ham United | 3 | 300 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Copa Del Rey | Real Madrid | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League | Real Madrid | 2 | 135 | 0 | 0 | 1593 |
| 2019/20 | Trophee Des Champions | Paris Saint-Germain | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1488 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Champions League | Paris Saint-Germain | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | 1674 |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Champions League | Paris Saint-Germain | 8 | 720 | 0 | 0 | 1727 |
| 2017/18 | Trophee Des Champions | Paris Saint-Germain | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1727 |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Champions League | Paris Saint-Germain | 6 | 540 | 0 | 0 | 1601 |
| 2015/16 | Uefa Europa League | Villarreal CF | 5 | 450 | 0 | 0 | 1665 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wayne Hennessey Premier League · 2019 | 32 | €5.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Joe Hart Premier League · 2019 | 32 | €6.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Karl Darlow Premier League · 2021 | 31 | €3.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Vicente Guaita Premier League · 2019 | 32 | €5.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Alex McCarthy Premier League · 2022 | 33 | €3.0M | €500k | fell |
| Sergio Álvarez Laliga · 2018 | 32 | €2.0M | €1.2M | fell |
| Keylor Navas Premier League · 2023 | 37 | €4.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Adrián San Miguel Premier League · 2018 | 31 | €5.0M | €4.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2022 | PSG | West Ham | €9.3M | €8.0M |
| 30 Jun 2022 | West Ham | PSG | Free / loan | €8.0M |
| 29 Jul 2021 | PSG | West Ham | Free / loan | €17.0M |
| 30 Jun 2021 | Fulham | PSG | Free / loan | €17.0M |
| 9 Sept 2020 | PSG | Fulham | Free / loan | €13.0M |
| 11 Aug 2020 | Real Madrid | PSG | Free / loan | €13.0M |
| 2 Sept 2019 | PSG | Real Madrid | Free / loan | €17.5M |
| 30 Jun 2016 | Villarreal | PSG | Free / loan | €7.5M |
| 1 Jul 2015 | PSG | Villarreal | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 30 Jun 2015 | SC Bastia | PSG | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 26 Jul 2014 | PSG | SC Bastia | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 30 Jun 2014 | Lens | PSG | Free / loan | €1.5M |
| 23 Jul 2013 | PSG | Lens | Free / loan | €600k |
| 1 Jul 2011 | Paris SG U19 | PSG | Unknown | €250k |
| 1 Jul 2010 | Paris SG U17 | Paris SG U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2009 | Clairef. U17 | Paris SG U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2008 | PSG Youth | Clairef. U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.