Landerson
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Landerson's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-1.7M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.0M-5.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.7M-4.8M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.77x the positional average in the league (1289 minutes, league coefficient 0.58). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 42
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 13.8th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Very favorable | 19.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very unfavorable | est. €1.7M vs market €1.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very high | +61% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 30% |
| League translation | Moderate | league coefficient 0.58 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1289 (42% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.14
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.32
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 14 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.58 (rank 9)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1279
- Opponent strength
- 1373
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- 30%
- Resale range (24m)
- €720k – €4.8M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -37% (IQR -47% to +66%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Projection range among the widest 10% of evaluated players.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1289 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.58 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 58 (ATT)
- Relative output kept
- 71%–130%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 66%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Moreirense FC | Liga Portugal | LW | 29 | 1289 | 42% | 0 | 2 | 0.14 | 0.32 | 1373 | 1279 | 0.58 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Romário Baldé Liga Portugal · 2016 | 20 | €800k | €450k | fell |
| Jean-Luc Dompé Jupiler Pro League · 2016 | 21 | €1.7M | €750k | fell |
| Dolly Menga Jupiler Pro League · 2013 | 20 | €600k | €750k | rose |
| João Carvalho Liga Portugal · 2017 | 20 | €2.0M | €8.0M | rose |
| Alex Schalk Eredivisie · 2013 | 21 | €650k | €450k | fell |
| Ronaldo Peña Liga Portugal · 2018 | 21 | €700k | €400k | fell |
| Lucas Jensen Superliga · 2014 | 20 | €500k | €200k | fell |
| Mimoun Mahi Eredivisie · 2015 | 21 | €900k | €3.5M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14 Aug 2025 | Fortaleza U20 | Moreirense | €1.0M | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.