Caleb Yirenkyi
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Caleb Yirenkyi's performance-implied value at EUR 0.5M-3.6M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 7.6M-18.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 6.5M-23.2M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.18x the positional average in the league (1804 minutes, league coefficient 0.47). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 74
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 24.3th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Very favorable | 20.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Unfavorable | est. €12.0M vs market €10.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very high | +52% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | High | breakout probability 33% |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.47 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1804 (91% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.35
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.26
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 24 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.47 (rank 12)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1315
- Opponent strength
- 1251
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- High
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- 33%
- Resale range (24m)
- €6.5M – €23.2M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 67 pts; league level up (+45 Elo); relative output up 87% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +66% (IQR +15% to +182%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.47 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 23 (MID)
- Relative output kept
- 68%–122%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 65%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | FC Nordsjaelland | Superliga | CM | 21 | 1804 | 91% | 2 | 5 | 0.35 | 0.26 | 1251 | 1314 | 0.47 |
| 2024/25 | FC Nordsjaelland | Superliga | CM | 8 | 470 | 24% | 1 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.13 | 1212 | 1341 | 0.38 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Oddset Pokalen | FC Nordsjaelland | 4 | 385 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Ghana | 3 | 185 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Oddset Pokalen | FC Nordsjaelland | 1 | 19 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesper Lindstrøm Superliga · 2021 | 21 | €7.0M | €28.0M | rose |
| Anis Ben Slimane Superliga · 2022 | 21 | €3.5M | €2.5M | fell |
| Arsen Zakharyan Premier Liga · 2022 | 19 | €15.0M | €18.0M | rose |
| Daniil Utkin Premier Liga · 2022 | 23 | €3.5M | €6.0M | rose |
| Daley Sinkgraven Eredivisie · 2015 | 20 | €4.0M | €4.0M | flat |
| Eduard Spertsyan Premier Liga · 2022 | 22 | €6.0M | €20.0M | rose |
| Renato Neto Jupiler Pro League · 2014 | 23 | €2.5M | €4.0M | rose |
| Angel Gomes Liga Portugal · 2021 | 21 | €6.0M | €16.0M | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Feb 2025 | Nordsjaell. U19 | Nordsjaelland | Unknown | €50k |
| 15 Jan 2024 | Right to Dream | Nordsjaell. U19 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.