Eduard Spertsyan

26 yrs · Attacking midfielder · Armenia
FK Krasnodar · Premier Liga · Foot: right · Height: 178 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2029
Market value
€25.0M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€14.6M – €26.6M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€8.7M – €29.2M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€15.1M – €31.2M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€17.9M – €14.6M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€14.6M – €26.6M
Model value (performance-implied)€8.7M – €29.2M
Projected value (24 months)€15.1M – €31.2M
Dashed line: current market value (€25.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Eduard Spertsyan's performance-implied value at EUR 8.7M-29.2M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 14.6M-26.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 15.1M-31.2M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.48x the positional average in the league (2545 minutes, league coefficient 0.56). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 63

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceHigh85.4th pct among MID peers (age-neutral)
AgeNeutral26.1 years
Acquisition costFavorableest. €20.1M vs market €25.0M
Expected appreciationNeutral-9% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapNegativeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationModerateleague coefficient 0.56
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €25.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2545 (94% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
1.06
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.60
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
85 (High)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.56 (rank 10)
Team strength (Elo)
1536
Opponent strength
1334
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
improving
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€15.1M – €31.2M

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change +18% (IQR -7% to +59%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.56 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⚠League level estimated mainly from squad values (few matches vs other leagues).
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
18 (MID)
Relative output kept
54%–153%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
56%
Confidence
Low

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26FK KrasnodarPremier LigaAM30254594%13171.060.60133415360.56
2024/25FK KrasnodarPremier LigaAM28229685%1170.710.46130115110.55
2023/24FK KrasnodarPremier LigaAM29252694%1170.640.49132714050.49
2022/23FK KrasnodarPremier LigaAM28236988%10120.840.53131014050.53
2021/22FK KrasnodarPremier LigaAM25200474%840.540.44134513710.52
2020/21FK KrasnodarPremier LigaAM51395%000.000.28135113570.55

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Russian CupFK Krasnodar1053011—
2025/26Russian Super CupFK Krasnodar190001478
2024/25Russian CupFK Krasnodar617100—
2024/25Russian Super CupFK Krasnodar190001491
2023/24Russian CupFK Krasnodar419800—
2022/23Russian CupFK Krasnodar1080431—
2021/22Russian CupFK Krasnodar29000—
2020/21Uefa Champions LeagueFK Krasnodar239001680

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Bryan Heynen
Jupiler Pro League · 2023
26€11.0M€11.0Mflat
Davy Klaassen
Eredivisie · 2017
24€18.0M€22.0Mrose
Danilo Pereira
Liga Portugal · 2017
26€20.0M€30.0Mrose
Hans Vanaken
Jupiler Pro League · 2019
27€11.5M€13.0Mflat
Ruslan Malinovskyi
Jupiler Pro League · 2019
26€12.5M€30.0Mrose
Wendel
Premier Liga · 2024
27€20.0M€15.0Mfell
Lucas Biglia
Jupiler Pro League · 2013
27€8.0M€15.0Mrose
Tonny Vilhena
Eredivisie · 2019
24€14.0M€8.0Mfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jul 2021Krasnodar 2KrasnodarUnknown€800k
1 Jul 2019Krasnodar 3Krasnodar 2Unknown€175k
1 Jul 2018Krasnodar IIKrasnodar 3Unknown€50k
5 Feb 2018Krasnodar U17Krasnodar IIUnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.