Florian Lejeune
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Florian Lejeune's performance-implied value at EUR 1.1M-3.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.6M-2.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.6M-1.3M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Age above 33 (outside validated pool)
| Performance | Elite | 92.1th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 35.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €1.4M vs market €1.8M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -41% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 3231 (95% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.08
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.10
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 92 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1518
- Opponent strength
- 1495
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €635k – €1.3M
Trajectory drivers: team strength up (+78 Elo); relative output down 32% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -59% (IQR -75% to -33%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ▲Age 35: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Rayo Vallecano | Laliga | CB | 36 | 3231 | 94% | 2 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.10 | 1495 | 1518 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Rayo Vallecano | Laliga | CB | 37 | 3326 | 97% | 2 | 3 | 0.14 | 0.14 | 1522 | 1440 | 0.95 |
| 2023/24 | Rayo Vallecano | Laliga | CB | 37 | 3328 | 97% | 3 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.14 | 1500 | 1401 | 1.00 |
| 2022/23 | Rayo Vallecano | Laliga | CB | 31 | 2569 | 75% | 4 | 0 | 0.14 | 0.16 | 1520 | 1398 | 0.98 |
| 2021/22 | Deportivo Alavés | Laliga | CB | 30 | 2700 | 79% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1538 | 1358 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | Deportivo Alavés | Laliga | CB | 34 | 3015 | 88% | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.09 | 1575 | 1428 | 1.10 |
| 2019/20 | Newcastle United | Premier League | CB | 6 | 441 | 13% | 2 | 0 | 0.41 | 0.21 | 1624 | 1476 | 1.14 |
| 2018/19 | Newcastle United | Premier League | CB | 12 | 1055 | 31% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1564 | 1532 | 1.22 |
| 2017/18 | Newcastle United | Premier League | CB | 24 | 2104 | 62% | 0 | 2 | 0.09 | 0.10 | 1558 | 1493 | 1.15 |
| 2016/17 | SD Eibar | Laliga | CB | 34 | 2971 | 87% | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.07 | 1554 | 1507 | 1.11 |
| 2012/13 | Stade Brestois 29 | Ligue 1 | CB | 10 | 850 | 25% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1437 | 1285 | 0.88 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Rayo Vallecano | 3 | 204 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Rayo Vallecano | 2 | 173 | 0 | 0 | 1286 |
| 2024/25 | Copa Del Rey | Rayo Vallecano | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Copa Del Rey | Rayo Vallecano | 1 | 14 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Copa Del Rey | Rayo Vallecano | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Copa Del Rey | Deportivo Alavés | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Copa Del Rey | Deportivo Alavés | 2 | 100 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Fa Cup | Newcastle United | 3 | 187 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Fa Cup | Newcastle United | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Copa Del Rey | SD Eibar | 3 | 225 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emiliano Moretti Serie A · 2015 | 34 | €1.0M | €500k | fell |
| Zdenek Pospech Bundesliga · 2013 | 35 | €1.3M | €1.3M | flat |
| José Fonte Ligue 1 · 2020 | 37 | €1.2M | €800k | fell |
| Sergey Ignashevich Premier Liga · 2014 | 35 | €2.0M | €200k | fell |
| Gareth McAuley Premier League · 2013 | 34 | €1.5M | €500k | fell |
| Emmerson Boyce Premier League · 2013 | 34 | €1.0M | €250k | fell |
| Paul Verhaegh Bundesliga · 2018 | 35 | €1.0M | €250k | fell |
| Weligton Laliga · 2013 | 34 | €1.5M | €1.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Jul 2023 | Alavés | Rayo Vallecano | €2.5M | €4.0M |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Rayo Vallecano | Alavés | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 29 Jul 2022 | Alavés | Rayo Vallecano | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 22 Jul 2021 | Newcastle | Alavés | Unknown | €4.5M |
| 30 Jun 2021 | Alavés | Newcastle | Free / loan | €4.5M |
| 11 Sept 2020 | Newcastle | Alavés | Free / loan | €4.8M |
| 4 Jul 2017 | SD Eibar | Newcastle | €10.0M | €5.0M |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Man City | SD Eibar | €1.5M | €800k |
| 30 Jun 2016 | Girona | Man City | Free / loan | €800k |
| 29 Aug 2015 | Man City | Girona | Free / loan | €800k |
| 28 Aug 2015 | Girona | Man City | €300k | €800k |
| 15 Jul 2014 | Villarreal | Girona | Free / loan | €500k |
| 30 Jun 2014 | Stade Brestois | Villarreal | Free / loan | €500k |
| 10 Jan 2013 | Villarreal | Stade Brestois | Free / loan | €1.0M |
| 7 Jul 2011 | FC Istres | Villarreal | €1.0M | €1.0M |
| 1 Jul 2009 | RCO Agde | FC Istres | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2008 | Sète U19 | RCO Agde | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.