Marcus Fraser
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Marcus Fraser's performance-implied value at EUR 0.2M-0.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.1M-0.2M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 79
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 16.4th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 32 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €85k vs market €250k |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -33% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.31 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2273 (77% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.04
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.06
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 16 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.31 (rank 26)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1102
- Opponent strength
- 1217
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €74k – €242k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 23 pts; team strength down (-75 Elo); relative output down 32% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -42% (IQR -53% to -31%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲League level coefficient 0.31 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ▲Age 32: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 11 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 16 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 90%–275%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 75%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | St. Mirren FC | Scottish Premiership | CB | 27 | 2273 | 77% | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.06 | 1217 | 1102 | 0.31 |
| 2024/25 | St. Mirren FC | Scottish Premiership | CB | 33 | 2960 | 100% | 0 | 3 | 0.09 | 0.08 | 1243 | 1177 | 0.34 |
| 2023/24 | St. Mirren FC | Scottish Premiership | CB | 33 | 2944 | 99% | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 1249 | 1192 | 0.34 |
| 2022/23 | St. Mirren FC | Scottish Premiership | CB | 29 | 2588 | 87% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1304 | 1217 | 0.40 |
| 2021/22 | St. Mirren FC | Scottish Premiership | CB | 31 | 2699 | 91% | 2 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.08 | 1321 | 1223 | 0.50 |
| 2020/21 | St. Mirren FC | Scottish Premiership | RB | 33 | 2910 | 98% | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.06 | 1319 | 1255 | 0.54 |
| 2019/20 | Ross County FC | Scottish Premiership | RB | 26 | 2225 | 82% | 1 | 2 | 0.12 | 0.15 | 1306 | 1189 | 0.52 |
| 2017/18 | Ross County FC | Scottish Premiership | CB | 33 | 2964 | 100% | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 1294 | 1191 | 0.47 |
| 2016/17 | Ross County FC | Scottish Premiership | RB | 33 | 2912 | 85% | 0 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.08 | 1299 | 1261 | 0.48 |
| 2015/16 | Ross County FC | Scottish Premiership | RB | 29 | 2557 | 75% | 0 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 1283 | 1239 | 0.44 |
| 2014/15 | Ross County FC | Scottish Premiership | RB | 16 | 1440 | 42% | 1 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.13 | 1270 | 1229 | 0.41 |
| 2012/13 | Celtic FC | Scottish Premiership | RB | 1 | 90 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1359 | 1521 | 0.52 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Scottish Fa Cup | St. Mirren FC | 3 | 280 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | St. Mirren FC | 4 | 360 | 0 | 0 | 1307 |
| 2024/25 | Scottish Fa Cup | St. Mirren FC | 2 | 210 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2023/24 | Scottish Fa Cup | St. Mirren FC | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Scottish Fa Cup | St. Mirren FC | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Scottish Fa Cup | St. Mirren FC | 3 | 172 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Scottish Fa Cup | St. Mirren FC | 4 | 375 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Scottish Fa Cup | Ross County FC | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2015/16 | Scottish Fa Cup | Ross County FC | 4 | 332 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2014/15 | Scottish Fa Cup | Cowdenbeath FC | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Konstantinos Giannoulis Super League 1 · 2021 | 34 | €300k | €200k | fell |
| Daniel Adejo Super League 1 · 2021 | 32 | €300k | €150k | fell |
| Ryan Edwards Scottish Premiership · 2023 | 30 | €300k | €300k | flat |
| Dmytro Nemchaninov Premier Liga · 2023 | 33 | €200k | €150k | fell |
| Igor Perduta Premier Liga · 2024 | 34 | €250k | €100k | fell |
| Nicky Devlin Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 31 | €550k | €200k | fell |
| Nikolaos Korovesis Super League 1 · 2021 | 30 | €450k | €250k | fell |
| Giannis Stathis Super League 1 · 2019 | 32 | €250k | €150k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Jul 2020 | Ross County | St. Mirren | Free / loan | €350k |
| 20 Jan 2015 | Celtic | Ross County | Free / loan | €50k |
| 10 Dec 2014 | Cowdenbeath | Celtic | Free / loan | €50k |
| 11 Sept 2014 | Celtic | Cowdenbeath | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Celtic U20 | Celtic | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | Celtic U17 | Celtic U20 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.