Daniel Carvajal

34 yrs · Right-back · Spain
Real Madrid · Laliga · Foot: right · Height: 173 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: Data unavailable
No index
CompareCheaper alternative
Market value
€4.0M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€1.5M – €4.4M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€1.2M – €2.9M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€1.3M – €2.9M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€3.2M – €1.4M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€1.5M – €4.4M
Model value (performance-implied)€1.2M – €2.9M
Projected value (24 months)€1.3M – €2.9M
Dashed line: current market value (€4.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Daniel Carvajal's performance-implied value at EUR 1.2M-2.9M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.5M-4.4M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.3M-2.9M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.

Bargain Index: not assigned

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

Age above 33 (outside validated pool)

PerformanceHigh83.4th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable34.5 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €2.3M vs market €4.0M
Expected appreciationVery low-57% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapNegativeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.95
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €60.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
976 (28% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.09
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.07
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
83 (High)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.95 (rank 2)
Team strength (Elo)
1745
Opponent strength
1450
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
stable
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€1.3M – €2.9M

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -67% (IQR -73% to -65%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ▲Age 34: resale value typically declines.
  • ⚠Limited sample: 976 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
  • ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Real MadridLaligaRB1797629%010.090.07145017450.95
2024/25Real MadridLaligaRB861018%100.150.08152017640.95
2023/24Real MadridLaligaRB28217564%430.290.15148118671.00
2022/23Real MadridLaligaRB27178952%020.100.06150417370.98
2021/22Real MadridLaligaRB24155245%130.230.13154418121.05
2020/21Real MadridLaligaRB1395228%040.380.17155517881.10
2019/20Real MadridLaligaRB31273980%160.230.15155418121.16
2018/19Real MadridLaligaRB24210662%120.130.09153916761.14
2017/18Real MadridLaligaRB25222365%020.080.04153018741.11
2016/17Real MadridLaligaRB23201459%050.220.08157919221.11
2015/16Real MadridLaligaRB22163548%040.220.09155718901.17
2014/15Real MadridLaligaRB30227667%030.120.07158418681.18
2013/14Real MadridLaligaRB31223365%220.160.09152818591.19
2012/13Bayer 04 LeverkusenBundesligaRB32278191%180.290.17144216411.11

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Champions LeagueReal Madrid596001575
2025/26Copa Del ReyReal Madrid11300—
2024/25Uefa Champions LeagueReal Madrid2180011586
2024/25Uefa Super CupReal Madrid188001709
2023/24Uefa Champions LeagueReal Madrid10846111739
2023/24SupercopaReal Madrid2210111691
2023/24Copa Del ReyReal Madrid112000—
2022/23Uefa Champions LeagueReal Madrid11873021700
2022/23Copa Del ReyReal Madrid327000—
2022/23SupercopaReal Madrid2124001640
2022/23Uefa Super CupReal Madrid185001595
2021/22Uefa Champions LeagueReal Madrid11958011769
2021/22SupercopaReal Madrid190001679
2020/21Uefa Champions LeagueReal Madrid2167001692
2019/20Uefa Champions LeagueReal Madrid7623011685
2019/20SupercopaReal Madrid2210001703
2019/20Copa Del ReyReal Madrid218001—
2018/19Uefa Champions LeagueReal Madrid6419011667
2018/19Copa Del ReyReal Madrid431502—
2018/19Uefa Super CupReal Madrid1120001768
2017/18Uefa Champions LeagueReal Madrid8643031714
2017/18Copa Del ReyReal Madrid424701—
2017/18SupercopaReal Madrid2180001852
2017/18Uefa Super CupReal Madrid190011712
2016/17Uefa Champions LeagueReal Madrid11975051730
2016/17Copa Del ReyReal Madrid423002—
2016/17Uefa Super CupReal Madrid1120101643
2015/16Uefa Champions LeagueReal Madrid8682111641
2014/15Uefa Champions LeagueReal Madrid5437011762
2014/15Copa Del ReyReal Madrid318700—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Simon Kjær
Serie A · 2023
34€3.5M€1.5Mfell
Carles Puyol
Laliga · 2013
35€3.0M€1.0Mfell
Cata Díaz
Laliga · 2013
34€1.5M€500kfell
Thomas Vermaelen
Laliga · 2018
33€5.0M€1.4Mfell
Kolo Touré
Premier League · 2013
32€6.0M€2.0Mfell
Vasilios Torosidis
Serie A · 2016
31€3.0M€700kfell
Maicon
Premier League · 2013
32€5.0M€1.0Mfell
Juan Jesus
Serie A · 2023
32€3.5M€1.5Mfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jul 2026Real MadridWithout ClubUnknown€4.0M
1 Jul 2013LeverkusenReal Madrid€6.5M€10.0M
11 Jul 2012RM CastillaLeverkusen€5.0MData unavailable
1 Jul 2010Real Madrid U19RM CastillaUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2009Real Madrid U18Real Madrid U19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2008R.Madrid Yth.Real Madrid U18UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.