Juan Jesus
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Juan Jesus's performance-implied value at EUR 0.9M-2.2M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.4M-2.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.5M-1.1M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Age above 33 (outside validated pool)
| Performance | High | 85.2th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 35.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €1.2M vs market €1.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -45% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1676 (49% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.02
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 85 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1618
- Opponent strength
- 1499
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €508k – €1.1M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 18 pts; relative output down 70% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -53% (IQR -62% to -50%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Age 35: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1676 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | SSC Napoli | Serie A | CB | 24 | 1676 | 49% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1499 | 1618 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | SSC Napoli | Serie A | CB | 15 | 1074 | 31% | 0 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.06 | 1509 | 1660 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | SSC Napoli | Serie A | CB | 24 | 2119 | 62% | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.04 | 1489 | 1569 | 0.98 |
| 2022/23 | SSC Napoli | Serie A | CB | 15 | 929 | 27% | 1 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.05 | 1464 | 1739 | 0.94 |
| 2021/22 | SSC Napoli | Serie A | CB | 21 | 1274 | 37% | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.05 | 1442 | 1645 | 0.89 |
| 2020/21 | Associazione Sportiva Roma | Serie A | CB | 5 | 153 | 4% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1400 | 1591 | 0.90 |
| 2019/20 | Associazione Sportiva Roma | Serie A | CB | 4 | 138 | 4% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1460 | 1582 | 0.82 |
| 2018/19 | Associazione Sportiva Roma | Serie A | CB | 20 | 1398 | 41% | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.05 | 1434 | 1595 | 0.78 |
| 2017/18 | Associazione Sportiva Roma | Serie A | CB | 22 | 1657 | 48% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1475 | 1712 | 0.86 |
| 2016/17 | Associazione Sportiva Roma | Serie A | CB | 20 | 1188 | 35% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1480 | 1711 | 0.88 |
| 2015/16 | Inter Milan | Serie A | CB | 19 | 1415 | 41% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1461 | 1540 | 0.95 |
| 2014/15 | Inter Milan | Serie A | CB | 32 | 2849 | 83% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1486 | 1533 | 0.93 |
| 2013/14 | Inter Milan | Serie A | CB | 27 | 2353 | 69% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1468 | 1504 | 0.88 |
| 2012/13 | Inter Milan | Serie A | CB | 31 | 2699 | 79% | 1 | 1 | 0.07 | 0.08 | 1409 | 1449 | 0.88 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | SSC Napoli | 7 | 347 | 0 | 0 | 1583 |
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | SSC Napoli | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Supercoppa Italiana | SSC Napoli | 2 | 174 | 0 | 0 | 1637 |
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | SSC Napoli | 2 | 180 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | SSC Napoli | 5 | 430 | 0 | 0 | 1657 |
| 2023/24 | Supercoppa Italiana | SSC Napoli | 2 | 180 | 0 | 1 | 1694 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | SSC Napoli | 3 | 204 | 0 | 0 | 1657 |
| 2022/23 | Italy Cup | SSC Napoli | 1 | 120 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | SSC Napoli | 6 | 456 | 0 | 0 | 1522 |
| 2021/22 | Italy Cup | SSC Napoli | 1 | 26 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League | Associazione Sportiva Roma | 6 | 418 | 0 | 0 | 1505 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League | Associazione Sportiva Roma | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1440 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Champions League | Associazione Sportiva Roma | 3 | 212 | 0 | 0 | 1612 |
| 2018/19 | Italy Cup | Associazione Sportiva Roma | 1 | 10 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Champions League | Associazione Sportiva Roma | 6 | 517 | 0 | 0 | 1739 |
| 2017/18 | Italy Cup | Associazione Sportiva Roma | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Europa League | Associazione Sportiva Roma | 8 | 649 | 0 | 1 | 1526 |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Associazione Sportiva Roma | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1527 |
| 2016/17 | Italy Cup | Associazione Sportiva Roma | 3 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2015/16 | Italy Cup | Inter Milan | 4 | 310 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2014/15 | Uefa Europa League | Inter Milan | 9 | 810 | 0 | 0 | 1565 |
| 2014/15 | Italy Cup | Inter Milan | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2014/15 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Inter Milan | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1442 |
| 2013/14 | Italy Cup | Inter Milan | 2 | 175 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2012/13 | Uefa Europa League | Inter Milan | 7 | 585 | 0 | 0 | 1469 |
| 2012/13 | Italy Cup | Inter Milan | 4 | 355 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2012/13 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Inter Milan | 2 | 98 | 0 | 0 | 1293 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kiko Femenía Laliga · 2024 | 33 | €1.4M | €700k | fell |
| Giorgio Chiellini Serie A · 2022 | 38 | €1.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Daniele Bonera Serie A · 2014 | 33 | €1.0M | €500k | fell |
| Mikel Balenziaga Laliga · 2022 | 34 | €1.2M | €400k | fell |
| Aleksandr Anyukov Premier Liga · 2016 | 34 | €1.0M | €50k | fell |
| Sascha Riether Bundesliga · 2016 | 33 | €1.0M | €500k | fell |
| Aïssa Mandi Laliga · 2023 | 32 | €3.0M | €1.2M | fell |
| Javi López Laliga · 2019 | 33 | €1.0M | €450k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | Napoli | Without Club | Unknown | €1.5M |
| 18 Aug 2021 | Roma | Napoli | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Inter | Roma | €8.0M | €7.5M |
| 30 Jun 2017 | Roma | Inter | Free / loan | €7.5M |
| 14 Jul 2016 | Inter | Roma | Free / loan | €9.0M |
| 30 Jan 2012 | Internacional | Inter | €3.8M | €3.0M |
| 1 Jan 2010 | Inter U20 | Internacional | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.