Virgil van Dijk
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Virgil van Dijk's performance-implied value at EUR 4.5M-10.2M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 5.8M-15.1M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 4.2M-9.7M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Age above 33 (outside validated pool)
| Performance | Elite | 99.8th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 35 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €7.7M vs market €15.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -63% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 3420 (100% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.16
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.09
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 100 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1682
- Opponent strength
- 1586
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €4.2M – €9.7M
Trajectory drivers: team strength down (-117 Elo); relative output up 46% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -74% (IQR -79% to -62%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ▲Age 35: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Liverpool FC | Premier League | CB | 38 | 3420 | 100% | 6 | 0 | 0.16 | 0.09 | 1586 | 1682 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Liverpool FC | Premier League | CB | 37 | 3330 | 97% | 3 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.06 | 1548 | 1800 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | Liverpool FC | Premier League | CB | 36 | 3178 | 93% | 2 | 2 | 0.11 | 0.05 | 1555 | 1755 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | Liverpool FC | Premier League | CB | 32 | 2835 | 83% | 3 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.08 | 1550 | 1771 | 1.23 |
| 2021/22 | Liverpool FC | Premier League | CB | 34 | 3060 | 89% | 3 | 4 | 0.21 | 0.09 | 1560 | 1898 | 1.17 |
| 2020/21 | Liverpool FC | Premier League | CB | 5 | 371 | 11% | 1 | 0 | 0.24 | 0.07 | 1526 | 1763 | 1.19 |
| 2019/20 | Liverpool FC | Premier League | CB | 38 | 3420 | 100% | 5 | 1 | 0.16 | 0.06 | 1568 | 1842 | 1.14 |
| 2018/19 | Liverpool FC | Premier League | CB | 38 | 3385 | 99% | 4 | 2 | 0.16 | 0.08 | 1535 | 1916 | 1.22 |
| 2017/18 | Liverpool FC | Premier League | CB | 14 | 1260 | 37% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1510 | 1779 | 1.15 |
| 2017/18 | Southampton FC | Premier League | CB | 12 | 993 | 29% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1544 | 1459 | 1.15 |
| 2016/17 | Southampton FC | Premier League | CB | 21 | 1854 | 54% | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.04 | 1530 | 1501 | 1.07 |
| 2015/16 | Southampton FC | Premier League | CB | 34 | 3060 | 89% | 3 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.08 | 1536 | 1619 | 1.08 |
| 2015/16 | Celtic FC | Scottish Premiership | CB | 5 | 450 | 13% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1237 | 1524 | 0.44 |
| 2014/15 | Celtic FC | Scottish Premiership | CB | 35 | 3150 | 92% | 4 | 6 | 0.29 | 0.12 | 1277 | 1539 | 0.41 |
| 2013/14 | Celtic FC | Scottish Premiership | CB | 36 | 3072 | 90% | 5 | 1 | 0.18 | 0.08 | 1313 | 1565 | 0.44 |
| 2012/13 | FC Groningen | Eredivisie | CB | 32 | 2781 | 91% | 2 | 3 | 0.16 | 0.12 | 1360 | 1282 | 0.54 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Liverpool FC | 12 | 1080 | 2 | 3 | 1656 |
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Liverpool FC | 4 | 351 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Netherlands | 3 | 270 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2025/26 | Community Shield | Liverpool FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1620 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Liverpool FC | 9 | 840 | 1 | 0 | 1697 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | Liverpool FC | 5 | 333 | 0 | 0 | 1622 |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | Liverpool FC | 3 | 200 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | Liverpool FC | 8 | 720 | 0 | 0 | 1709 |
| 2022/23 | Community Shield | Liverpool FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1866 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | Liverpool FC | 9 | 810 | 0 | 1 | 1716 |
| 2021/22 | Fa Cup | Liverpool FC | 5 | 451 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Community Shield | Liverpool FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1641 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League | Liverpool FC | 8 | 750 | 0 | 0 | 1634 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Super Cup | Liverpool FC | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | 1747 |
| 2019/20 | Community Shield | Liverpool FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1924 |
| 2019/20 | Fa Cup | Liverpool FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Champions League | Liverpool FC | 12 | 1080 | 2 | 2 | 1733 |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Champions League | Liverpool FC | 6 | 540 | 0 | 0 | 1768 |
| 2017/18 | Fa Cup | Liverpool FC | 2 | 180 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Europa League | Southampton FC | 6 | 540 | 2 | 0 | 1505 |
| 2016/17 | Fa Cup | Southampton FC | 1 | 90 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2015/16 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Celtic FC | 5 | 450 | 0 | 0 | 1456 |
| 2015/16 | Fa Cup | Southampton FC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2014/15 | Uefa Europa League | Celtic FC | 8 | 666 | 0 | 0 | 1511 |
| 2014/15 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Celtic FC | 6 | 540 | 2 | 0 | 1359 |
| 2014/15 | Scottish Fa Cup | Celtic FC | 5 | 401 | 4 | 0 | — |
| 2013/14 | Uefa Champions League | Celtic FC | 6 | 540 | 0 | 0 | 1642 |
| 2013/14 | Scottish Fa Cup | Celtic FC | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2013/14 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Celtic FC | 2 | 91 | 0 | 0 | 1393 |
| 2012/13 | Knvb Beker | FC Groningen | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Fabian Schär Premier League · 2024 | 33 | €10.0M | €4.0M | fell |
| David Luiz Premier League · 2020 | 33 | €12.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Patrice Evra Premier League · 2014 | 33 | €7.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| César Azpilicueta Premier League · 2020 | 31 | €24.0M | €9.0M | fell |
| Mats Hummels Bundesliga · 2021 | 33 | €12.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Tyrone Mings Premier League · 2023 | 30 | €22.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Ashley Williams Premier League · 2017 | 33 | €8.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Branislav Ivanovic Premier League · 2016 | 32 | €11.0M | €3.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jan 2018 | Southampton | Liverpool | €84.7M | €30.0M |
| 1 Sept 2015 | Celtic | Southampton | €15.7M | €5.0M |
| 1 Jul 2013 | FC Groningen | Celtic | €2.8M | €3.0M |
| 1 Jul 2011 | Gron./Cam. U21 | FC Groningen | Unknown | €250k |
| 1 Jul 2010 | Willem II/RKC-19 | FC Groningen U21 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2008 | Willem II U17 | Willem II U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2006 | Willem II Youth | Willem II U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2001 | WDS '19 Jeugd | Willem II Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.