
Leandro Trossard
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Leandro Trossard's performance-implied value at EUR 34.1M-54.8M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 5.3M-14.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.7M-8.8M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.69x the positional average in the league (2008 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 3
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 99th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 31.6 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €7.0M vs market €18.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -73% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 1.3 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2008 (59% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.54
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.28
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 99 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 1.30 (rank 1)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1876
- Opponent strength
- 1563
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €3.7M – €8.8M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 16 pts; team strength up (+62 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -58% (IQR -64% to -48%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Age 32: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Arsenal FC | Premier League | LW | 31 | 2008 | 59% | 6 | 6 | 0.54 | 0.28 | 1563 | 1876 | 1.30 |
| 2024/25 | Arsenal FC | Premier League | LW | 38 | 2551 | 75% | 8 | 8 | 0.56 | 0.31 | 1558 | 1813 | 1.23 |
| 2023/24 | Arsenal FC | Premier League | LW | 34 | 1646 | 48% | 12 | 1 | 0.71 | 0.40 | 1549 | 1794 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | Brighton & Hove Albion | Premier League | LM | 16 | 1327 | 39% | 7 | 3 | 0.68 | 0.32 | 1573 | 1619 | 1.23 |
| 2022/23 | Arsenal FC | Premier League | LW | 20 | 930 | 27% | 1 | 10 | 1.06 | 0.48 | 1516 | 1726 | 1.23 |
| 2021/22 | Brighton & Hove Albion | Premier League | ST | 34 | 2809 | 82% | 8 | 3 | 0.35 | 0.47 | 1559 | 1537 | 1.17 |
| 2020/21 | Brighton & Hove Albion | Premier League | AM | 35 | 2618 | 77% | 5 | 5 | 0.34 | 0.47 | 1560 | 1492 | 1.19 |
| 2019/20 | Brighton & Hove Albion | Premier League | LW | 31 | 2013 | 59% | 5 | 3 | 0.36 | 0.48 | 1602 | 1449 | 1.14 |
| 2018/19 | KRC Genk | Jupiler Pro League | LW | 24 | 1967 | 73% | 11 | 4 | 0.69 | 0.38 | 1334 | 1557 | 0.65 |
| 2017/18 | KRC Genk | Jupiler Pro League | LW | 6 | 380 | 14% | 2 | 1 | 0.71 | 0.38 | 1356 | 1445 | 0.63 |
| 2016/17 | KRC Genk | Jupiler Pro League | LW | 25 | 1221 | 45% | 3 | 2 | 0.37 | 0.29 | 1313 | 1500 | 0.62 |
| 2015/16 | Oud-Heverlee Leuven | Jupiler Pro League | LW | 30 | 2040 | 76% | 8 | 7 | 0.66 | 0.66 | 1347 | 1238 | 0.57 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Arsenal FC | 10 | 548 | 1 | 4 | 1646 |
| 2025/26 | World Cup | Belgium | 3 | 252 | 2 | 1 | — |
| 2025/26 | Fa Cup | Arsenal FC | 2 | 66 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Arsenal FC | 14 | 663 | 2 | 2 | 1663 |
| 2024/25 | Fa Cup | Arsenal FC | 1 | 30 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | Arsenal FC | 9 | 534 | 4 | 1 | 1662 |
| 2023/24 | Community Shield | Arsenal FC | 1 | 15 | 1 | 0 | 1920 |
| 2023/24 | Fa Cup | Arsenal FC | 1 | 2 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | Arsenal FC | 1 | 74 | 0 | 0 | 1662 |
| 2022/23 | Fa Cup | Arsenal FC | 1 | 66 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Fa Cup | Brighton & Hove Albion | 1 | 64 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Fa Cup | Brighton & Hove Albion | 2 | 86 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League | KRC Genk | 6 | 527 | 3 | 1 | 1468 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | KRC Genk | 5 | 385 | 5 | 2 | 1434 |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Europa League | KRC Genk | 12 | 506 | 3 | 1 | 1526 |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | KRC Genk | 4 | 164 | 0 | 0 | 1425 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Riyad Mahrez Premier League · 2021 | 30 | €42.0M | €20.0M | fell |
| Kévin Gameiro Laliga · 2017 | 30 | €24.0M | €9.0M | fell |
| Fernando Torres Premier League · 2014 | 30 | €19.0M | €7.0M | fell |
| Ivan Perišić Bundesliga · 2020 | 31 | €17.5M | €10.0M | fell |
| Pedro Laliga · 2015 | 28 | €20.0M | €28.0M | rose |
| Thomas Müller Bundesliga · 2023 | 34 | €12.0M | €6.0M | fell |
| Willian Premier League · 2019 | 31 | €40.0M | €9.0M | fell |
| Sadio Mané Bundesliga · 2023 | 31 | €25.0M | €8.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20 Jan 2023 | Brighton | Arsenal | €24.0M | €30.0M |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Genk | Brighton | €15.6M | €16.0M |
| 30 Jun 2016 | OH Leuven | Genk | Free / loan | €2.0M |
| 6 Jul 2015 | Genk | OH Leuven | Free / loan | €500k |
| 30 Jun 2015 | Lommel United | Genk | Free / loan | €500k |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Genk | Lommel United | Free / loan | €200k |
| 30 Jun 2014 | KVC Westerlo | Genk | Free / loan | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Genk | KVC Westerlo | Free / loan | €200k |
| 30 Jun 2013 | Lommel United | Genk | Free / loan | €200k |
| 29 Jan 2013 | Genk | Lommel United | Free / loan | €200k |
| 1 Jul 2012 | KRC Genk U19 | Genk | Unknown | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2010 | Bocholt VV U21 | KRC Genk U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.