Leandro Trossard

31 yrs · Left winger (also AM, LM, ST) · Belgium
Arsenal FC · Premier League · Foot: right · Height: 172 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2027
Market value
€18.0M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€5.3M – €14.7M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€34.1M – €54.8M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€3.7M – €8.8M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
€19.4M – €49.5M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€5.3M – €14.7M
Model value (performance-implied)€34.1M – €54.8M
Projected value (24 months)€3.7M – €8.8M
Dashed line: current market value (€18.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Leandro Trossard's performance-implied value at EUR 34.1M-54.8M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 5.3M-14.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 3.7M-8.8M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.69x the positional average in the league (2008 minutes, league coefficient 1.30). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.

Bargain Index: 3

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceElite99th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable31.6 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €7.0M vs market €18.0M
Expected appreciationVery low-73% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery largeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 1.3
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €38.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 900 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2008 (59% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.54
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.28
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
99 (Elite)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
1.30 (rank 1)
Team strength (Elo)
1876
Opponent strength
1563
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
declining
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€3.7M – €8.8M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 16 pts; team strength up (+62 Elo).

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -58% (IQR -64% to -48%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
  • ⚠Age 32: resale value typically declines.
  • ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Arsenal FCPremier LeagueLW31200859%660.540.28156318761.30
2024/25Arsenal FCPremier LeagueLW38255175%880.560.31155818131.23
2023/24Arsenal FCPremier LeagueLW34164648%1210.710.40154917941.14
2022/23Brighton & Hove AlbionPremier LeagueLM16132739%730.680.32157316191.23
2022/23Arsenal FCPremier LeagueLW2093027%1101.060.48151617261.23
2021/22Brighton & Hove AlbionPremier LeagueST34280982%830.350.47155915371.17
2020/21Brighton & Hove AlbionPremier LeagueAM35261877%550.340.47156014921.19
2019/20Brighton & Hove AlbionPremier LeagueLW31201359%530.360.48160214491.14
2018/19KRC GenkJupiler Pro LeagueLW24196773%1140.690.38133415570.65
2017/18KRC GenkJupiler Pro LeagueLW638014%210.710.38135614450.63
2016/17KRC GenkJupiler Pro LeagueLW25122145%320.370.29131315000.62
2015/16Oud-Heverlee LeuvenJupiler Pro LeagueLW30204076%870.660.66134712380.57

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Champions LeagueArsenal FC10548141646
2025/26World CupBelgium325221—
2025/26Fa CupArsenal FC26600—
2024/25Uefa Champions LeagueArsenal FC14663221663
2024/25Fa CupArsenal FC13000—
2023/24Uefa Champions LeagueArsenal FC9534411662
2023/24Community ShieldArsenal FC115101920
2023/24Fa CupArsenal FC1200—
2022/23Uefa Europa LeagueArsenal FC174001662
2022/23Fa CupArsenal FC16600—
2021/22Fa CupBrighton & Hove Albion16400—
2020/21Fa CupBrighton & Hove Albion28600—
2018/19Uefa Europa LeagueKRC Genk6527311468
2018/19Uefa Europa League QualifyingKRC Genk5385521434
2016/17Uefa Europa LeagueKRC Genk12506311526
2016/17Uefa Europa League QualifyingKRC Genk4164001425

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Riyad Mahrez
Premier League · 2021
30€42.0M€20.0Mfell
Kévin Gameiro
Laliga · 2017
30€24.0M€9.0Mfell
Fernando Torres
Premier League · 2014
30€19.0M€7.0Mfell
Ivan Perišić
Bundesliga · 2020
31€17.5M€10.0Mfell
Pedro
Laliga · 2015
28€20.0M€28.0Mrose
Thomas Müller
Bundesliga · 2023
34€12.0M€6.0Mfell
Willian
Premier League · 2019
31€40.0M€9.0Mfell
Sadio Mané
Bundesliga · 2023
31€25.0M€8.0Mfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
20 Jan 2023BrightonArsenal€24.0M€30.0M
1 Jul 2019GenkBrighton€15.6M€16.0M
30 Jun 2016OH LeuvenGenkFree / loan€2.0M
6 Jul 2015GenkOH LeuvenFree / loan€500k
30 Jun 2015Lommel UnitedGenkFree / loan€500k
1 Jul 2014GenkLommel UnitedFree / loan€200k
30 Jun 2014KVC WesterloGenkFree / loan€200k
1 Jul 2013GenkKVC WesterloFree / loan€200k
30 Jun 2013Lommel UnitedGenkFree / loan€200k
29 Jan 2013GenkLommel UnitedFree / loan€200k
1 Jul 2012KRC Genk U19GenkUnknown€100k
1 Jul 2010Bocholt VV U21KRC Genk U19UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.

Leandro Trossard · MoneyballAI