
Marc Oliver Kempf
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Marc Oliver Kempf's performance-implied value at EUR 3.3M-10.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.2M-3.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.3M-2.7M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 65
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 85.2th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 31.4 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €1.5M vs market €3.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -43% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2323 (68% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.19
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.15
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 85 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1589
- Opponent strength
- 1493
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.3M – €2.7M
Trajectory drivers: team strength up (+128 Elo); relative output up 503% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -68% (IQR -79% to -55%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Age 31: resale value typically declines.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Como 1907 | Serie A | CB | 34 | 2323 | 68% | 4 | 1 | 0.19 | 0.15 | 1493 | 1589 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | Como 1907 | Serie A | CB | 31 | 2617 | 77% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1484 | 1461 | 0.99 |
| 2021/22 | Hertha BSC | Bundesliga | CB | 12 | 1052 | 34% | 0 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.09 | 1513 | 1385 | 1.05 |
| 2021/22 | VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga | CB | 12 | 841 | 27% | 3 | 0 | 0.32 | 0.21 | 1562 | 1425 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga | CB | 32 | 2734 | 89% | 2 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.11 | 1549 | 1462 | 1.06 |
| 2018/19 | VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga | CB | 23 | 2025 | 66% | 2 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.10 | 1508 | 1402 | 1.05 |
| 2017/18 | SC Freiburg | Bundesliga | CB | 12 | 901 | 29% | 0 | 1 | 0.10 | 0.09 | 1496 | 1415 | 1.04 |
| 2016/17 | SC Freiburg | Bundesliga | CB | 13 | 1146 | 37% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1544 | 1444 | 1.06 |
| 2014/15 | SC Freiburg | Bundesliga | CB | 13 | 917 | 30% | 2 | 0 | 0.20 | 0.14 | 1556 | 1426 | 1.03 |
| 2013/14 | Eintracht Frankfurt | Bundesliga | CB | 3 | 164 | 5% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.07 | 1655 | 1485 | 1.03 |
| 2012/13 | Eintracht Frankfurt | Bundesliga | CB | 2 | 180 | 6% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1403 | 1539 | 1.11 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Como 1907 | 4 | 307 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | Hertha BSC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Dfb Pokal | VfB Stuttgart | 2 | 163 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Dfb Pokal | VfB Stuttgart | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Dfb Pokal | SC Freiburg | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | SC Freiburg | 1 | 28 | 0 | 0 | 1371 |
| 2014/15 | Dfb Pokal | SC Freiburg | 2 | 92 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2013/14 | Uefa Europa League | Eintracht Frankfurt | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1492 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cristiano Biraghi Serie A · 2024 | 32 | €3.5M | €900k | fell |
| Ibrahim Toraman Super Lig · 2013 | 32 | €4.0M | €900k | fell |
| Marko Lomic Premier Liga · 2014 | 31 | €3.0M | €500k | fell |
| Ricardo Costa Laliga · 2013 | 32 | €3.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Gonzalo Rodríguez Serie A · 2015 | 31 | €7.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Christian Maggio Serie A · 2013 | 31 | €8.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Andrea Masiello Serie A · 2018 | 32 | €3.0M | €1.2M | fell |
| Francesco Acerbi Serie A · 2022 | 34 | €4.0M | €3.5M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 Aug 2024 | Hertha BSC | Como | €2.5M | €1.5M |
| 25 Jan 2022 | Stuttgart | Hertha BSC | €500k | €7.0M |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Freiburg | Stuttgart | Free / loan | €4.0M |
| 15 Jul 2014 | Frankfurt | Freiburg | €800k | €1.5M |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Frankfurt U17 | Frankfurt | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2010 | Frankfurt Yth. | Frankfurt U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2007 | B. Nauheim Yth. | Frankfurt Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2006 | Bruchenbr. Yth. | B. Nauheim Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2005 | Dorn-Ass. Yth. | Bruchenbr. Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.