Marc Oliver Kempf

31 yrs · Centre-back · Germany
Como 1907 · Serie A · Foot: left · Height: 186 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2027
Market value
€3.5M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€1.2M – €3.0M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€3.3M – €10.6M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€1.3M – €2.7M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
€280k – €9.5M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€1.2M – €3.0M
Model value (performance-implied)€3.3M – €10.6M
Projected value (24 months)€1.3M – €2.7M
Dashed line: current market value (€3.5M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Marc Oliver Kempf's performance-implied value at EUR 3.3M-10.6M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.2M-3.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.3M-2.7M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.

Bargain Index: 65

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceHigh85.2th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable31.4 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €1.5M vs market €3.5M
Expected appreciationVery low-43% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery largeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.93
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €8.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2323 (68% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.19
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.15
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
85 (High)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.93 (rank 4)
Team strength (Elo)
1589
Opponent strength
1493
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
improving
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€1.3M – €2.7M

Trajectory drivers: team strength up (+128 Elo); relative output up 503% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -68% (IQR -79% to -55%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
  • ⚠Age 31: resale value typically declines.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Como 1907Serie ACB34232368%410.190.15149315890.93
2024/25Como 1907Serie ACB31261777%000.000.02148414610.99
2021/22Hertha BSCBundesligaCB12105234%010.090.09151313851.05
2021/22VfB StuttgartBundesligaCB1284127%300.320.21156214251.05
2020/21VfB StuttgartBundesligaCB32273489%210.100.11154914621.06
2018/19VfB StuttgartBundesligaCB23202566%200.090.10150814021.05
2017/18SC FreiburgBundesligaCB1290129%010.100.09149614151.04
2016/17SC FreiburgBundesligaCB13114637%000.000.03154414441.06
2014/15SC FreiburgBundesligaCB1391730%200.200.14155614261.03
2013/14Eintracht FrankfurtBundesligaCB31645%000.000.07165514851.03
2012/13Eintracht FrankfurtBundesligaCB21806%000.000.05140315391.11

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Italy CupComo 1907430700—
2024/25Dfb PokalHertha BSC19000—
2021/22Dfb PokalVfB Stuttgart216300—
2020/21Dfb PokalVfB Stuttgart327000—
2017/18Dfb PokalSC Freiburg19000—
2017/18Uefa Europa League QualifyingSC Freiburg128001371
2014/15Dfb PokalSC Freiburg29200—
2013/14Uefa Europa LeagueEintracht Frankfurt190001492

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Cristiano Biraghi
Serie A · 2024
32€3.5M€900kfell
Ibrahim Toraman
Super Lig · 2013
32€4.0M€900kfell
Marko Lomic
Premier Liga · 2014
31€3.0M€500kfell
Ricardo Costa
Laliga · 2013
32€3.0M€1.5Mfell
Gonzalo Rodríguez
Serie A · 2015
31€7.0M€3.0Mfell
Christian Maggio
Serie A · 2013
31€8.0M€1.5Mfell
Andrea Masiello
Serie A · 2018
32€3.0M€1.2Mfell
Francesco Acerbi
Serie A · 2022
34€4.0M€3.5Mflat

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
28 Aug 2024Hertha BSCComo€2.5M€1.5M
25 Jan 2022StuttgartHertha BSC€500k€7.0M
1 Jul 2018FreiburgStuttgartFree / loan€4.0M
15 Jul 2014FrankfurtFreiburg€800k€1.5M
1 Jul 2012Frankfurt U17FrankfurtUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2010Frankfurt Yth.Frankfurt U17UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2007B. Nauheim Yth.Frankfurt Yth.Free / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2006Bruchenbr. Yth.B. Nauheim Yth.Free / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2005Dorn-Ass. Yth.Bruchenbr. Yth.Free / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.