Filip Kostić
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Filip Kostić's performance-implied value at EUR 1.3M-3.2M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.8M-2.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.6M-1.8M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.58x the positional average in the league (468 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | High | 75.3th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 33.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €1.3M vs market €2.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -43% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Small | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1164 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 468 (14% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.77
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.35
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 75 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1614
- Opponent strength
- 1447
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €638k – €1.8M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 47 pts; changed club; team strength up (+111 Elo); league level up (+223 Elo); role change LB -> LM.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -47% (IQR -62% to -33%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Small sample: 468 league minutes last season.
- ▲Age 34: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Juventus FC | Serie A | LM | 18 | 468 | 14% | 3 | 1 | 0.77 | 0.35 | 1447 | 1614 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | Fenerbahce | Super Lig | LB | 27 | 1963 | 61% | 1 | 8 | 0.41 | 0.19 | 1264 | 1503 | 0.39 |
| 2023/24 | Juventus FC | Serie A | LM | 29 | 1831 | 54% | 0 | 4 | 0.20 | 0.16 | 1475 | 1621 | 0.98 |
| 2022/23 | Juventus FC | Serie A | LM | 37 | 2579 | 75% | 3 | 8 | 0.38 | 0.24 | 1456 | 1614 | 0.94 |
| 2022/23 | Eintracht Frankfurt | Bundesliga | LM | 1 | 74 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.34 | 1859 | 1541 | 1.04 |
| 2021/22 | Eintracht Frankfurt | Bundesliga | LM | 31 | 2524 | 82% | 4 | 9 | 0.46 | 0.33 | 1526 | 1594 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | Eintracht Frankfurt | Bundesliga | LM | 30 | 2536 | 83% | 4 | 17 | 0.75 | 0.48 | 1529 | 1602 | 1.06 |
| 2019/20 | Eintracht Frankfurt | Bundesliga | LM | 33 | 2959 | 97% | 4 | 12 | 0.49 | 0.30 | 1531 | 1535 | 1.06 |
| 2018/19 | Eintracht Frankfurt | Bundesliga | LM | 34 | 2960 | 97% | 6 | 12 | 0.55 | 0.36 | 1502 | 1593 | 1.05 |
| 2017/18 | Hamburger SV | Bundesliga | LW | 30 | 2413 | 79% | 5 | 1 | 0.22 | 0.35 | 1509 | 1410 | 1.04 |
| 2016/17 | Hamburger SV | Bundesliga | LW | 31 | 2532 | 83% | 4 | 4 | 0.28 | 0.37 | 1528 | 1440 | 1.06 |
| 2015/16 | VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga | LW | 30 | 2602 | 85% | 5 | 7 | 0.42 | 0.51 | 1528 | 1379 | 1.02 |
| 2014/15 | VfB Stuttgart | Bundesliga | LW | 29 | 1529 | 50% | 3 | 6 | 0.53 | 0.62 | 1520 | 1420 | 1.03 |
| 2013/14 | FC Groningen | Eredivisie | LW | 34 | 2938 | 96% | 9 | 8 | 0.52 | 0.49 | 1344 | 1365 | 0.59 |
| 2012/13 | FC Groningen | Eredivisie | LM | 5 | 47 | 2% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.35 | 1359 | 1282 | 0.54 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Juventus FC | 5 | 59 | 0 | 0 | 1584 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Fenerbahce | 4 | 390 | 0 | 1 | 1496 |
| 2023/24 | Italy Cup | Juventus FC | 4 | 276 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | Juventus FC | 6 | 431 | 0 | 1 | 1674 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League | Juventus FC | 8 | 412 | 0 | 1 | 1574 |
| 2022/23 | Italy Cup | Juventus FC | 3 | 225 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2022/23 | Dfb Pokal | Eintracht Frankfurt | 1 | 90 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | Eintracht Frankfurt | 12 | 1140 | 3 | 6 | 1561 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League | Eintracht Frankfurt | 10 | 891 | 2 | 3 | 1601 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Eintracht Frankfurt | 5 | 450 | 3 | 1 | 1324 |
| 2019/20 | Dfb Pokal | Eintracht Frankfurt | 3 | 270 | 3 | 2 | — |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League | Eintracht Frankfurt | 12 | 1034 | 4 | 2 | 1626 |
| 2016/17 | Dfb Pokal | Hamburger SV | 4 | 271 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2015/16 | Dfb Pokal | VfB Stuttgart | 3 | 297 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2014/15 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | FC Groningen | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1350 |
| 2014/15 | Dfb Pokal | VfB Stuttgart | 1 | 62 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2013/14 | Knvb Beker | FC Groningen | 3 | 242 | 1 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| William Carvalho Laliga · 2024 | 32 | €3.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Matías Vecino Serie A · 2024 | 33 | €2.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Morgan Schneiderlin Ligue 1 · 2022 | 33 | €3.5M | €300k | fell |
| Sebastian Rudy Bundesliga · 2022 | 32 | €1.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Marcel Schäfer Bundesliga · 2014 | 30 | €3.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Óscar de Marcos Laliga · 2020 | 31 | €3.2M | €1.8M | fell |
| Mathieu Valbuena Ligue 1 · 2017 | 33 | €3.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Stefano Mauri Serie A · 2014 | 34 | €500k | €400k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | Juventus | Without Club | Unknown | €2.0M |
| 10 Jun 2025 | Fenerbahçe | Juventus | Free / loan | €5.5M |
| 9 Sept 2024 | Juventus | Fenerbahçe | Free / loan | €6.5M |
| 12 Aug 2022 | Frankfurt | Juventus | €14.7M | €24.0M |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Hamburg | Frankfurt | €6.3M | €22.0M |
| 30 Jun 2019 | Frankfurt | Hamburg | Free / loan | €22.0M |
| 20 Aug 2018 | Hamburg | Frankfurt | Free / loan | €6.0M |
| 25 Jul 2016 | Stuttgart | Hamburg | €14.0M | €10.0M |
| 9 Aug 2014 | FC Groningen | Stuttgart | €6.0M | €2.5M |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Radnicki 1923 | FC Groningen | €1.3M | €1.3M |
| 1 Jul 2010 | Kragujevac U19 | Radnicki 1923 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.