Stuart Findlay

31 yrs · Centre-back · Scotland
Heart of Midlothian FC · Scottish Premiership · Foot: left · Height: 191 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 31 May 2028
Market value
€700k
Updated 7 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€196k – €688k
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€427k – €1.3M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€245k – €576k
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€261k – €1.1M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€196k – €688k
Model value (performance-implied)€427k – €1.3M
Projected value (24 months)€245k – €576k
Dashed line: current market value (€700k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Stuart Findlay's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-1.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.2M-0.6M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 48

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceBelow average34.3th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable30.8 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €412k vs market €700k
Expected appreciationVery low-42% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapLargeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.31
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €800k

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2579 (87% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.24
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.17
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
34 (Below average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.31 (rank 26)
Team strength (Elo)
1332
Opponent strength
1220
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
improving
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€245k – €576k

Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 59 pts; changed club; team strength up (+162 Elo); relative output up 353% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -13% (IQR -32% to +29%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ▲League level coefficient 0.31 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⚠Age 31: resale value typically declines.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
16 (DEF)
Relative output kept
90%–275%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
75%
Confidence
Low

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Heart of Midlothian FCScottish PremiershipCB29257987%520.240.17122013320.31
2024/25Kilmarnock FCScottish PremiershipCB1283328%000.000.04127011710.34
2023/24Kilmarnock FCScottish PremiershipCB32288097%000.000.02125912430.34
2020/21Kilmarnock FCScottish PremiershipCB22175059%000.000.03132712220.54
2019/20Kilmarnock FCScottish PremiershipCB18153157%110.120.08133012910.52
2018/19Kilmarnock FCScottish PremiershipCB27238080%210.110.08129713650.44
2017/18Kilmarnock FCScottish PremiershipCB27215873%210.130.10126513300.47
2015/16Kilmarnock FCScottish PremiershipCB22184754%000.000.02125111550.44

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Scottish Fa CupHeart of Midlothian FC15100—
2024/25Uefa Conference League QualifyingKilmarnock FC4360001439
2024/25Uefa Europa League QualifyingKilmarnock FC2180001383
2023/24Scottish Fa CupKilmarnock FC327000—
2019/20Scottish Fa CupKilmarnock FC218620—
2019/20Uefa Europa League QualifyingKilmarnock FC2169101252
2018/19Scottish Fa CupKilmarnock FC19010—
2017/18Scottish Fa CupKilmarnock FC434500—
2015/16Scottish Fa CupKilmarnock FC318800—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Rodrigo Galo
Super League 1 · 2016
30€1.0M€1.3Mrose
Steven Caulker
Super Lig · 2020
29€1.2M€2.0Mrose
Kyrylo Petrov
Premier Liga · 2021
31€500k€250kfell
Georgios Tzavellas
Super League 1 · 2016
29€1.3M€1.3Mflat
Enzo Roco
Super Lig · 2021
29€2.0M€1.5Mfell
Guilherme
Super Lig · 2021
31€850k€1.2Mrose
Daniel Adejo
Super League 1 · 2019
30€400k€300kfell
Ognjen Vranjes
Super League 1 · 2022
33€800k€250kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jul 2026Oxford UnitedHeart of Midl.Free / loan€700k
31 May 2026Heart of Midl.Oxford UnitedFree / loan€700k
1 Jul 2025Oxford UnitedHeart of Midl.Free / loan€450k
31 May 2025Kilmarnock FCOxford UnitedFree / loan€500k
14 Jul 2023Oxford UnitedKilmarnock FCFree / loan€450k
19 Jul 2022PhiladelphiaOxford UnitedUnknown€500k
25 Feb 2021Kilmarnock FCPhiladelphia€273k€600k
4 Jul 2018NewcastleKilmarnock FCFree / loan€250k
14 May 2018Kilmarnock FCNewcastleFree / loan€250k
25 Aug 2017NewcastleKilmarnock FCFree / loan€100k
8 Jul 2016CelticNewcastleFree / loan€100k
31 May 2016Kilmarnock FCCelticFree / loan€100k
9 Jul 2015CelticKilmarnock FCFree / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2015Celtic U20CelticUnknownData unavailable
5 May 2015DumbartonCeltic U20Free / loanData unavailable
16 Jan 2015Celtic U20DumbartonFree / loanData unavailable
5 May 2014MortonCeltic U20Free / loanData unavailable
21 Jan 2014Celtic U20MortonFree / loanData unavailable
1 Sept 2012Celtic U17Celtic U20UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.