
Stuart Findlay
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Stuart Findlay's performance-implied value at EUR 0.4M-1.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.2M-0.6M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 48
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 34.3th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 30.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €412k vs market €700k |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -42% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.31 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2579 (87% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.24
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.17
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 34 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.31 (rank 26)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1332
- Opponent strength
- 1220
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €245k – €576k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 59 pts; changed club; team strength up (+162 Elo); relative output up 353% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -13% (IQR -32% to +29%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲League level coefficient 0.31 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Age 31: resale value typically declines.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 16 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 90%–275%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 75%
- Confidence
- Low
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Heart of Midlothian FC | Scottish Premiership | CB | 29 | 2579 | 87% | 5 | 2 | 0.24 | 0.17 | 1220 | 1332 | 0.31 |
| 2024/25 | Kilmarnock FC | Scottish Premiership | CB | 12 | 833 | 28% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1270 | 1171 | 0.34 |
| 2023/24 | Kilmarnock FC | Scottish Premiership | CB | 32 | 2880 | 97% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1259 | 1243 | 0.34 |
| 2020/21 | Kilmarnock FC | Scottish Premiership | CB | 22 | 1750 | 59% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1327 | 1222 | 0.54 |
| 2019/20 | Kilmarnock FC | Scottish Premiership | CB | 18 | 1531 | 57% | 1 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.08 | 1330 | 1291 | 0.52 |
| 2018/19 | Kilmarnock FC | Scottish Premiership | CB | 27 | 2380 | 80% | 2 | 1 | 0.11 | 0.08 | 1297 | 1365 | 0.44 |
| 2017/18 | Kilmarnock FC | Scottish Premiership | CB | 27 | 2158 | 73% | 2 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.10 | 1265 | 1330 | 0.47 |
| 2015/16 | Kilmarnock FC | Scottish Premiership | CB | 22 | 1847 | 54% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1251 | 1155 | 0.44 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Scottish Fa Cup | Heart of Midlothian FC | 1 | 51 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Kilmarnock FC | 4 | 360 | 0 | 0 | 1439 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Kilmarnock FC | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1383 |
| 2023/24 | Scottish Fa Cup | Kilmarnock FC | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Scottish Fa Cup | Kilmarnock FC | 2 | 186 | 2 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Kilmarnock FC | 2 | 169 | 1 | 0 | 1252 |
| 2018/19 | Scottish Fa Cup | Kilmarnock FC | 1 | 90 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Scottish Fa Cup | Kilmarnock FC | 4 | 345 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2015/16 | Scottish Fa Cup | Kilmarnock FC | 3 | 188 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rodrigo Galo Super League 1 · 2016 | 30 | €1.0M | €1.3M | rose |
| Steven Caulker Super Lig · 2020 | 29 | €1.2M | €2.0M | rose |
| Kyrylo Petrov Premier Liga · 2021 | 31 | €500k | €250k | fell |
| Georgios Tzavellas Super League 1 · 2016 | 29 | €1.3M | €1.3M | flat |
| Enzo Roco Super Lig · 2021 | 29 | €2.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Guilherme Super Lig · 2021 | 31 | €850k | €1.2M | rose |
| Daniel Adejo Super League 1 · 2019 | 30 | €400k | €300k | fell |
| Ognjen Vranjes Super League 1 · 2022 | 33 | €800k | €250k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | Oxford United | Heart of Midl. | Free / loan | €700k |
| 31 May 2026 | Heart of Midl. | Oxford United | Free / loan | €700k |
| 1 Jul 2025 | Oxford United | Heart of Midl. | Free / loan | €450k |
| 31 May 2025 | Kilmarnock FC | Oxford United | Free / loan | €500k |
| 14 Jul 2023 | Oxford United | Kilmarnock FC | Free / loan | €450k |
| 19 Jul 2022 | Philadelphia | Oxford United | Unknown | €500k |
| 25 Feb 2021 | Kilmarnock FC | Philadelphia | €273k | €600k |
| 4 Jul 2018 | Newcastle | Kilmarnock FC | Free / loan | €250k |
| 14 May 2018 | Kilmarnock FC | Newcastle | Free / loan | €250k |
| 25 Aug 2017 | Newcastle | Kilmarnock FC | Free / loan | €100k |
| 8 Jul 2016 | Celtic | Newcastle | Free / loan | €100k |
| 31 May 2016 | Kilmarnock FC | Celtic | Free / loan | €100k |
| 9 Jul 2015 | Celtic | Kilmarnock FC | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2015 | Celtic U20 | Celtic | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 5 May 2015 | Dumbarton | Celtic U20 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 16 Jan 2015 | Celtic U20 | Dumbarton | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 5 May 2014 | Morton | Celtic U20 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 21 Jan 2014 | Celtic U20 | Morton | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Sept 2012 | Celtic U17 | Celtic U20 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.