Raphaël Guerreiro
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Raphaël Guerreiro's performance-implied value at EUR 5.2M-10.8M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.7M-5.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.4M-3.1M. Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Elite | 94.1th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 32.5 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €3.2M vs market €5.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -64% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1269 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 782 (26% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.92
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.18
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 94 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1871
- Opponent strength
- 1451
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €1.4M – €3.1M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 26 pts; team strength up (+99 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -60% (IQR -64% to -52%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Small sample: 782 league minutes last season.
- ▲Age 33: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Bayern Munich | Bundesliga | LB | 18 | 782 | 26% | 5 | 3 | 0.92 | 0.19 | 1451 | 1871 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | Bayern Munich | Bundesliga | LB | 23 | 1583 | 52% | 4 | 3 | 0.40 | 0.14 | 1453 | 1772 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | Bayern Munich | Bundesliga | CM | 20 | 1201 | 39% | 3 | 0 | 0.22 | 0.11 | 1484 | 1715 | 1.01 |
| 2022/23 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | LB | 27 | 2296 | 75% | 4 | 12 | 0.63 | 0.34 | 1512 | 1691 | 1.04 |
| 2021/22 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | LB | 23 | 1804 | 59% | 4 | 3 | 0.35 | 0.16 | 1541 | 1643 | 1.05 |
| 2020/21 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | LB | 27 | 2222 | 73% | 5 | 11 | 0.65 | 0.33 | 1526 | 1703 | 1.06 |
| 2019/20 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | LM | 29 | 2339 | 76% | 8 | 3 | 0.42 | 0.19 | 1527 | 1700 | 1.06 |
| 2018/19 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | LM | 23 | 1532 | 50% | 2 | 6 | 0.47 | 0.23 | 1490 | 1683 | 1.05 |
| 2017/18 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | CM | 9 | 546 | 18% | 1 | 1 | 0.33 | 0.23 | 1515 | 1592 | 1.04 |
| 2016/17 | Borussia Dortmund | Bundesliga | CM | 24 | 1484 | 48% | 6 | 5 | 0.67 | 0.30 | 1527 | 1705 | 1.06 |
| 2015/16 | FC Lorient | Ligue 1 | LB | 34 | 2507 | 73% | 3 | 2 | 0.18 | 0.20 | 1448 | 1354 | 0.78 |
| 2014/15 | FC Lorient | Ligue 1 | LM | 34 | 2767 | 81% | 7 | 5 | 0.39 | 0.36 | 1432 | 1391 | 0.80 |
| 2013/14 | FC Lorient | Ligue 1 | LB | 34 | 3060 | 89% | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.06 | 1476 | 1407 | 0.79 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Bayern Munich | 7 | 335 | 1 | 0 | 1593 |
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | Bayern Munich | 2 | 79 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2025/26 | Franz Beckenbauer Supercup | Bayern Munich | 1 | 10 | 0 | 0 | 1531 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Bayern Munich | 9 | 523 | 1 | 0 | 1634 |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | Bayern Munich | 2 | 122 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Champions League | Bayern Munich | 7 | 388 | 0 | 2 | 1661 |
| 2023/24 | Dfb Pokal | Bayern Munich | 1 | 28 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | Borussia Dortmund | 6 | 481 | 2 | 1 | 1638 |
| 2022/23 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Dortmund | 3 | 270 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | Borussia Dortmund | 3 | 182 | 0 | 0 | 1488 |
| 2021/22 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Dortmund | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Europa League | Borussia Dortmund | 1 | 90 | 1 | 1 | 1615 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League | Borussia Dortmund | 8 | 669 | 1 | 0 | 1671 |
| 2020/21 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Dortmund | 5 | 304 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League | Borussia Dortmund | 8 | 548 | 0 | 1 | 1706 |
| 2019/20 | Franz Beckenbauer Supercup | Borussia Dortmund | 1 | 75 | 0 | 1 | 1839 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Champions League | Borussia Dortmund | 6 | 285 | 4 | 0 | 1606 |
| 2018/19 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Dortmund | 3 | 220 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Champions League | Borussia Dortmund | 3 | 252 | 1 | 0 | 1728 |
| 2017/18 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Dortmund | 2 | 84 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Europa League | Borussia Dortmund | 1 | 28 | 0 | 0 | 1611 |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Champions League | Borussia Dortmund | 6 | 500 | 1 | 2 | 1656 |
| 2016/17 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Dortmund | 5 | 350 | 0 | 2 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafinha Bundesliga · 2017 | 32 | €4.5M | €3.0M | fell |
| Pepe Laliga · 2017 | 34 | €3.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Lucas Vázquez Laliga · 2023 | 32 | €8.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Dani Alves Serie A · 2017 | 34 | €6.0M | €2.5M | fell |
| Danilo D'Ambrosio Serie A · 2021 | 33 | €5.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Nacho Fernández Laliga · 2022 | 32 | €7.0M | €3.0M | fell |
| Giorgio Chiellini Serie A · 2017 | 33 | €10.0M | €7.5M | fell |
| Álvaro Arbeloa Laliga · 2015 | 32 | €4.0M | €1.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | Bayern Munich | Without Club | Unknown | €5.0M |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Dortmund | Bayern Munich | Free / loan | €20.0M |
| 1 Jul 2016 | FC Lorient | Dortmund | €12.0M | €9.0M |
| 1 Jul 2013 | SM Caen | FC Lorient | €2.5M | €1.5M |
| 1 Jul 2012 | SM Caen B | SM Caen | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2010 | SM Caen U19 | SM Caen B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2008 | Clairef. U17 | SM Caen U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 30 Jun 2008 | JA Drancy U17 | Clairef. U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Aug 2007 | Clairef. U17 | JA Drancy U17 | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2006 | Clairef. Yth. | Clairef. U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2005 | BMSF Jugend | Clairef. Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.