Lucas Vázquez

35 yrs · Right-back (also RM, RW) · Spain
Bayer 04 Leverkusen · Bundesliga · Foot: right · Height: 173 cm
Risk: Very HighConfidence: LowSample: LowDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2027
No index
CompareCheaper alternative
Market value
€1.5M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€475k – €1.3M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€1.7M – €6.3M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€551k – €1.3M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
€384k – €5.9M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€475k – €1.3M
Model value (performance-implied)€1.7M – €6.3M
Projected value (24 months)€551k – €1.3M
Dashed line: current market value (€1.5M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Lucas Vázquez's performance-implied value at EUR 1.7M-6.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.5M-1.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.6M-1.3M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.96x the positional average in the league (479 minutes, league coefficient 0.94). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.

Bargain Index: not assigned

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)

PerformanceHigh86.9th pct among MID peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable35 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €633k vs market €1.5M
Expected appreciationVery low-40% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery largeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.94
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskVery High
Data confidenceLow

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €25.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1164 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
479 (16% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.56
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.21
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
87 (High)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.94 (rank 3)
Team strength (Elo)
1626
Opponent strength
1444
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
declining
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€551k – €1.3M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 48 pts; changed club; team strength down (-138 Elo); role change RB -> RM.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -44% (IQR -77% to +0%).

Risk profile

Overall: Very High

  • ▲Small sample: 479 league minutes last season.
  • ▲Age 35: resale value typically declines.
  • ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
  • ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
  • ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Bayer 04 LeverkusenBundesligaRM1247916%120.560.21144416260.94
2024/25Real MadridLaligaRB32219364%150.250.14150017640.95
2023/24Real MadridLaligaRB29141141%370.640.26148818671.00
2022/23Real MadridLaligaRB23114133%420.470.18145517370.98
2021/22Real MadridLaligaRB29183554%300.150.08149718121.05
2020/21Real MadridLaligaRB24185054%260.390.20155017881.10
2019/20Real MadridLaligaRW1884225%220.430.26150318121.16
2018/19Real MadridLaligaRW31150144%130.240.20153716761.14
2017/18Real MadridLaligaRW33166649%480.650.27151018741.11
2016/17Real MadridLaligaRW33138440%290.720.28153519221.11
2015/16Real MadridLaligaRW25123036%480.880.35151718901.17
2014/15RCD Espanyol BarcelonaLaligaRM33273980%360.300.34155615321.18

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Champions LeagueBayer 04 Leverkusen5363011510
2025/26Dfb PokalBayer 04 Leverkusen29700—
2024/25Uefa Champions LeagueReal Madrid10574111692
2024/25Copa Del ReyReal Madrid532600—
2024/25SupercopaReal Madrid2142011582
2024/25Uefa Super CupReal Madrid12001709
2023/24Uefa Champions LeagueReal Madrid9373011617
2022/23Uefa Champions LeagueReal Madrid5199011618
2022/23Copa Del ReyReal Madrid19000—
2022/23SupercopaReal Madrid168001491
2021/22Uefa Champions LeagueReal Madrid8350001645
2021/22Copa Del ReyReal Madrid221000—
2021/22SupercopaReal Madrid2120001599
2020/21Uefa Champions LeagueReal Madrid8720021657
2020/21Copa Del ReyReal Madrid112000—
2020/21SupercopaReal Madrid190001530
2019/20Uefa Champions LeagueReal Madrid4100001652
2019/20Copa Del ReyReal Madrid19010—
2018/19Copa Del ReyReal Madrid757930—
2018/19Uefa Champions LeagueReal Madrid6386111592
2018/19Uefa Super CupReal Madrid137001768
2017/18Uefa Champions LeagueReal Madrid10544131753
2017/18Copa Del ReyReal Madrid545033—
2017/18SupercopaReal Madrid299011845
2017/18Uefa Super CupReal Madrid116001712
2016/17Uefa Champions LeagueReal Madrid10366111675
2016/17Copa Del ReyReal Madrid423912—
2016/17Uefa Super CupReal Madrid1120011643
2015/16Uefa Champions LeagueReal Madrid7330021725
2015/16Copa Del ReyReal Madrid19000—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Dimitri Payet
Ligue 1 · 2023
36€1.8M€1.8Mflat
Dusan Basta
Serie A · 2018
34€1.0M€200kfell
Dani García
Laliga · 2024
34€1.8M€700kfell
Boukary Dramé
Serie A · 2017
32€1.7M€400kfell
Marco Parolo
Serie A · 2021
36€1.0M€1.0Mflat
Charles Aránguiz
Bundesliga · 2023
34€3.5M€800kfell
Mikel Arteta
Premier League · 2015
33€2.5M€2.0Mfell
Michel Bastos
Serie A · 2014
31€2.0M€3.5Mrose

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
26 Aug 2025Real MadridLeverkusenFree / loan€3.0M
2 Jul 2015EspanyolReal Madrid€1.0M€5.0M
1 Jul 2015RM CastillaEspanyol€500k€5.0M
30 Jun 2015EspanyolRM CastillaFree / loan€4.0M
19 Aug 2014RM CastillaEspanyolFree / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2011Real Madrid CRM CastillaUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2010Real Madrid U19Real Madrid CUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2009Real Madrid U18Real Madrid U19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2008Real Madrid U17Real Madrid U18UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2007Ural CF U19Real Madrid U17Free / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.

Lucas Vázquez · MoneyballAI