Luccas Claro
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Luccas Claro's performance-implied value at EUR 0.1M-0.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.0M-0.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.1M-0.2M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Market value below EUR 250k (outside validated pool)
| Performance | Below average | 25.9th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 34.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €95k vs market €150k |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -18% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1417 (46% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.13
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.12
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 26 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1204
- Opponent strength
- 1262
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €73k – €152k
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 45 pts; relative output up 224% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -25% (IQR -32% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Age 35: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1417 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 50 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 68%–191%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 54%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Eyüpspor | Super Lig | CB | 17 | 1417 | 46% | 1 | 1 | 0.13 | 0.12 | 1262 | 1204 | 0.40 |
| 2024/25 | Eyüpspor | Super Lig | CB | 34 | 2971 | 92% | 1 | 0 | 0.03 | 0.04 | 1286 | 1229 | 0.39 |
| 2017/18 | Gençlerbirliği Spor Kulübü | Super Lig | CB | 21 | 1767 | 58% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1389 | 1308 | 0.68 |
| 2016/17 | Gençlerbirliği Spor Kulübü | Super Lig | CB | 17 | 1485 | 49% | 1 | 0 | 0.06 | 0.07 | 1366 | 1362 | 0.62 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lasse Fosgaard Superliga · 2021 | 35 | €150k | €150k | flat |
| Titi Super Lig · 2021 | 33 | €250k | €250k | flat |
| Maksym Imerekov Premier Liga · 2024 | 33 | €250k | €250k | flat |
| Michael Lumb Superliga · 2021 | 33 | €200k | €150k | fell |
| Adrián Lucero Super League 1 · 2020 | 36 | €200k | €150k | fell |
| Bjørn Paulsen Superliga · 2024 | 33 | €250k | €25k | fell |
| Markus Halsti Superliga · 2020 | 36 | €200k | €100k | fell |
| Alexios Michail Super League 1 · 2021 | 35 | €200k | €150k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10 Aug 2022 | Fluminense | Eyüpspor | Free / loan | €1.2M |
| 19 Sept 2019 | Without Club | Fluminense | Unknown | €500k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Genclerbirligi | Without Club | Unknown | €500k |
| 4 Jan 2017 | Coritiba FC | Genclerbirligi | Free / loan | €750k |
| 1 Jan 2011 | Coritiba U20 | Coritiba FC | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.