Jonny Otto
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Jonny Otto's performance-implied value at EUR 1.2M-3.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.6M-1.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.7M-1.6M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 34
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | High | 82.8th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 32.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €738k vs market €2.2M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -56% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.95 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2998 (88% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.04
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 83 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.95 (rank 2)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1410
- Opponent strength
- 1491
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €705k – €1.6M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share up 28 pts; changed club; league level up (+252 Elo); relative output down 56% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -40% (IQR -47% to -19%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Age 32: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Deportivo Alavés | Laliga | RB | 34 | 2998 | 88% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1491 | 1410 | 0.95 |
| 2024/25 | Panthessalonikios Athlitikos Omilos Konstantinoupoliton | Super League 1 | RB | 18 | 1397 | 60% | 0 | 2 | 0.13 | 0.09 | 1321 | 1378 | 0.35 |
| 2023/24 | Panthessalonikios Athlitikos Omilos Konstantinoupoliton | Super League 1 | RB | 5 | 214 | 9% | 0 | 1 | 0.42 | 0.13 | 1199 | 1535 | 0.42 |
| 2023/24 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | Premier League | LW | 1 | 4 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.99 | 1897 | 1467 | 1.14 |
| 2022/23 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | Premier League | LB | 18 | 1262 | 37% | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.14 | 1548 | 1497 | 1.23 |
| 2021/22 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | Premier League | RB | 13 | 1023 | 30% | 2 | 0 | 0.18 | 0.15 | 1562 | 1508 | 1.17 |
| 2020/21 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | Premier League | LM | 7 | 499 | 15% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.17 | 1588 | 1516 | 1.19 |
| 2019/20 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | Premier League | LM | 35 | 2892 | 85% | 2 | 2 | 0.12 | 0.13 | 1579 | 1613 | 1.14 |
| 2018/19 | Wolverhampton Wanderers | Premier League | LM | 33 | 2779 | 81% | 1 | 2 | 0.10 | 0.14 | 1566 | 1551 | 1.22 |
| 2017/18 | Celta de Vigo | Laliga | LB | 36 | 3204 | 94% | 2 | 1 | 0.08 | 0.10 | 1536 | 1523 | 1.11 |
| 2016/17 | Celta de Vigo | Laliga | LB | 30 | 2207 | 65% | 0 | 3 | 0.12 | 0.11 | 1583 | 1520 | 1.11 |
| 2015/16 | Celta de Vigo | Laliga | LB | 36 | 2952 | 86% | 1 | 4 | 0.15 | 0.17 | 1589 | 1569 | 1.17 |
| 2014/15 | Celta de Vigo | Laliga | LB | 36 | 2966 | 87% | 0 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.08 | 1582 | 1564 | 1.18 |
| 2013/14 | Celta de Vigo | Laliga | LB | 26 | 2167 | 63% | 0 | 2 | 0.08 | 0.13 | 1548 | 1533 | 1.19 |
| 2012/13 | Celta de Vigo | Laliga | RB | 19 | 1627 | 48% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1502 | 1428 | 1.06 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Copa Del Rey | Deportivo Alavés | 3 | 114 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League | Panthessalonikios Athlitikos Omilos Konstantinoupoliton | 9 | 787 | 0 | 1 | 1548 |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Panthessalonikios Athlitikos Omilos Konstantinoupoliton | 2 | 170 | 0 | 0 | 1271 |
| 2024/25 | Kypello Elladas | Panthessalonikios Athlitikos Omilos Konstantinoupoliton | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Panthessalonikios Athlitikos Omilos Konstantinoupoliton | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1251 |
| 2023/24 | Kypello Elladas | Panthessalonikios Athlitikos Omilos Konstantinoupoliton | 2 | 210 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2022/23 | Fa Cup | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 2 | 154 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Fa Cup | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 6 | 378 | 0 | 1 | 1500 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 5 | 297 | 0 | 0 | 1357 |
| 2019/20 | Fa Cup | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 2 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Fa Cup | Wolverhampton Wanderers | 5 | 451 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Copa Del Rey | Celta de Vigo | 4 | 352 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Europa League | Celta de Vigo | 12 | 1102 | 0 | 0 | 1551 |
| 2016/17 | Copa Del Rey | Celta de Vigo | 8 | 638 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2015/16 | Copa Del Rey | Celta de Vigo | 8 | 586 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2014/15 | Copa Del Rey | Celta de Vigo | 3 | 185 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2013/14 | Copa Del Rey | Celta de Vigo | 2 | 123 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2012/13 | Copa Del Rey | Celta de Vigo | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Vogt Bundesliga · 2024 | 33 | €2.0M | €400k | fell |
| Iza Carcelén Laliga · 2024 | 31 | €1.5M | €1.5M | flat |
| Fali Laliga · 2024 | 31 | €2.0M | €2.0M | flat |
| Pablo Marí Serie A · 2024 | 31 | €3.5M | €2.0M | fell |
| Ricardo Rodríguez Serie A · 2023 | 31 | €3.5M | €2.0M | fell |
| Nicolas Pallois Ligue 1 · 2020 | 33 | €2.0M | €1.5M | fell |
| Mike Williamson Premier League · 2014 | 31 | €3.5M | €1.5M | fell |
| Stefan Mitrovic Ligue 1 · 2019 | 29 | €3.5M | €2.2M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 Jul 2025 | PAOK | Alavés | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 29 Jan 2024 | Wolves | PAOK | Free / loan | €8.0M |
| 31 Jan 2019 | Atlético | Wolves | €21.0M | €12.0M |
| 30 Jan 2019 | Wolves | Atlético | Free / loan | €12.0M |
| 26 Jul 2018 | Atlético | Wolves | Free / loan | €12.0M |
| 25 Jul 2018 | Celta de Vigo | Atlético | €7.0M | €12.0M |
| 1 Jan 2013 | Celta Vigo B | Celta de Vigo | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | Celta U19 | Celta Vigo B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.