Pablo Marí
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Pablo Marí's performance-implied value at EUR 1.2M-3.1M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.7M-2.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.5M-1.4M. Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | High | 79.7th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 32.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €1.5M vs market €2.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -54% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Very High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1269 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 809 (24% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.04
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 80 (High)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 20)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1506
- Opponent strength
- 1550
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €486k – €1.4M
Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 56 pts; changed club; team strength up (+108 Elo); relative output up 29% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -53% (IQR -67% to -22%).
Risk profile
Overall: Very High
- ▲Small sample: 809 league minutes last season.
- ▲Age 33: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | ACF Fiorentina | Serie A | CB | 11 | 809 | 24% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.04 | 1550 | 1506 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | AC Monza | Serie A | CB | 19 | 1629 | 48% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1513 | 1274 | 0.99 |
| 2024/25 | ACF Fiorentina | Serie A | CB | 13 | 1097 | 32% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1494 | 1580 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | AC Monza | Serie A | CB | 34 | 2616 | 76% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1483 | 1428 | 0.98 |
| 2022/23 | AC Monza | Serie A | CB | 30 | 2489 | 73% | 1 | 0 | 0.04 | 0.05 | 1452 | 1453 | 0.94 |
| 2021/22 | Udinese Calcio | Serie A | CB | 15 | 1342 | 39% | 2 | 0 | 0.13 | 0.13 | 1466 | 1436 | 0.89 |
| 2021/22 | Arsenal FC | Premier League | CB | 2 | 180 | 5% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1572 | 1667 | 1.17 |
| 2020/21 | Arsenal FC | Premier League | CB | 10 | 900 | 26% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1580 | 1688 | 1.19 |
| 2017/18 | NAC Breda | Eredivisie | CB | 31 | 2673 | 87% | 3 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.10 | 1328 | 1253 | 0.59 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | ACF Fiorentina | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1205 |
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | AC Monza | 2 | 165 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Italy Cup | AC Monza | 1 | 77 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Italy Cup | AC Monza | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League | Arsenal FC | 5 | 450 | 1 | 0 | 1547 |
| 2020/21 | Fa Cup | Arsenal FC | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Knvb Beker | NAC Breda | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Koffi Djidji Serie A · 2024 | 32 | €2.5M | €2.5M | flat |
| Johan Mojica Laliga · 2023 | 31 | €3.0M | €2.0M | fell |
| Dejan Lovren Ligue 1 · 2024 | 35 | €1.2M | €400k | fell |
| Stefan Bell Bundesliga · 2024 | 33 | €800k | €600k | fell |
| Ludovic Baal Ligue 1 · 2018 | 32 | €1.0M | €325k | fell |
| Álvaro González Ligue 1 · 2022 | 32 | €2.5M | €2.2M | flat |
| Tomas Hubocan Ligue 1 · 2017 | 32 | €1.5M | €500k | fell |
| Vitaliy Denisov Premier Liga · 2018 | 31 | €2.8M | €800k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Jan 2026 | Fiorentina | Al-Hilal | €2.0M | €2.5M |
| 28 Jan 2025 | Monza | Fiorentina | €2.7M | €3.5M |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Arsenal | Monza | €6.2M | €5.0M |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Monza | Arsenal | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 11 Aug 2022 | Arsenal | Monza | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Udinese | Arsenal | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 20 Jan 2022 | Arsenal | Udinese | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 1 Jul 2020 | Flamengo | Arsenal | €6.0M | €4.8M |
| 30 Jun 2020 | Arsenal | Flamengo | Free / loan | €4.8M |
| 29 Jan 2020 | Flamengo | Arsenal | Free / loan | €1.8M |
| 11 Jul 2019 | Man City | Flamengo | €1.7M | €800k |
| 30 Jun 2019 | Dep. La Coruña | Man City | Free / loan | €800k |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Man City | Dep. La Coruña | Free / loan | €750k |
| 30 Jun 2018 | NAC Breda | Man City | Free / loan | €750k |
| 1 Jul 2017 | Man City | NAC Breda | Free / loan | €400k |
| 30 Jun 2017 | Girona | Man City | Free / loan | €400k |
| 16 Aug 2016 | Man City | Girona | Free / loan | €500k |
| 15 Aug 2016 | Gimnàstic | Man City | €200k | €500k |
| 2 Sept 2013 | RCD Mallorca B | Gimnàstic | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2010 | Mallorca U19 | RCD Mallorca B | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.