Harry Maguire

The model rates Harry Maguire's performance-implied value at EUR 4.6M-10.2M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 3.1M-7.7M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 2.2M-4.4M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.

Age above 33 (outside validated pool)

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Minutes

1655 (48% of available)

Goals + assists / 90

0.16

Context-adjusted G+A / 90

0.12

xG, xA, progression

Data unavailable

Defensive actions

Data unavailable

Performance percentile

97 (Elite)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

League strength

1.30 (rank 1)

Team strength (Elo)

1715

Opponent strength

1650

Possession, role

Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Development

Low

Trajectory

improving

Breakout probability

Age > 23

Resale range (24m)

€2.2M – €4.4M

Trajectory drivers: team strength up (+112 Elo); relative output up 76% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -79% (IQR -81% to -75%).

• ▲Age 33: resale value typically declines.
• ⚠Limited sample: 1655 league minutes last season.
• ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
• ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.