Lefteris Choutesiotis

32 yrs · Goalkeeper · Greece
APS Atromitos Athinon · Super League 1 · Foot: right · Height: 192 cm
Risk: ModerateConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2028
Market value
€400k
Updated 7 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€92k – €544k
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€316k – €507k
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€135k – €359k
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€228k – €415k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€92k – €544k
Model value (performance-implied)€316k – €507k
Projected value (24 months)€135k – €359k
Dashed line: current market value (€400k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Lefteris Choutesiotis's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.1M-0.4M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 79

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceBelow average22th pct among GK peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable31.9 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €208k vs market €400k
Expected appreciationVery low-30% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapLargeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.43
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskModerate
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €450k

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1800 (77% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.00
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.00
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
22 (Below average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.42 (rank 16)
Team strength (Elo)
1237
Opponent strength
1228
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
stable
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€135k – €359k

Trajectory drivers: league level up (+40 Elo).

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -47% (IQR -55% to -38%).

Risk profile

Overall: Moderate

  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⚠Age 32: resale value typically declines.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
58 (all positions)
Relative output kept
63%–179%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
60%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26APS Atromitos AthinonSuper League 1GK20180077%000.000.00122812370.43
2024/25APS Atromitos AthinonSuper League 1GK22198085%000.000.01126111920.35
2023/24Aris ThessalonikisSuper League 1GK545019%000.000.00118013480.42
2022/23Ionikos NikeasSuper League 1GK262340100%000.000.00125011230.37
2021/22Ionikos NikeasSuper League 1GK262340100%000.000.00126411980.39
2020/21PAS GianninaSuper League 1GK18157567%010.060.03127411970.39
2017/18Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon PeiraiosSuper League 1GK21807%000.000.00122614840.48
2015/16Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon PeiraiosSuper League 1GK170%000.000.00115815850.46

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2023/24Uefa Conference League QualifyingAris Thessalonikis1120001424
2023/24Kypello ElladasAris Thessalonikis19000—
2021/22Kypello ElladasIonikos Nikeas19000—
2020/21Kypello ElladasPAS Giannina19000—
2018/19Kypello ElladasOlympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios218000—
2017/18Kypello ElladasOlympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios218000—
2016/17Kypello ElladasOlympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios218000—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Markos Vellidis
Super League 1 · 2019
32€400k€200kfell
Dimitrios Kyriakidis
Super League 1 · 2019
33€450k€150kfell
Andreas Gianniotis
Super Lig · 2024
32€500k€300kfell
Kelle Roos
Scottish Premiership · 2023
31€600k€300kfell
Georgios Bantis
Super League 1 · 2016
31€300k€200kfell
Ruud Boffin
Super Lig · 2020
33€325k€450krose
Zdenek Zlamal
Scottish Premiership · 2019
34€450k€250kfell
Denys Sydorenko
Premier Liga · 2022
33€300k€100kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jul 2024Aris SalonikiAtromitosFree / loan€400k
1 Jul 2023Ionikos NikeaAris SalonikiFree / loan€400k
5 Jul 2021PAS GianninaIonikos NikeaFree / loan€350k
9 Sept 2019OlympiacosPAS GianninaFree / loan€300k
1 Jan 2014Olympiacos U20OlympiacosUnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.