
Lefteris Choutesiotis
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Lefteris Choutesiotis's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.5M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.1M-0.4M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 79
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 22th pct among GK peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 31.9 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €208k vs market €400k |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -30% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 284 evaluated GK players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1800 (77% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.00
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.00
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 22 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.42 (rank 16)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1237
- Opponent strength
- 1228
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- stable
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €135k – €359k
Trajectory drivers: league level up (+40 Elo).
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -47% (IQR -55% to -38%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Age 32: resale value typically declines.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 58 (all positions)
- Relative output kept
- 63%–179%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 60%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | APS Atromitos Athinon | Super League 1 | GK | 20 | 1800 | 77% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1228 | 1237 | 0.43 |
| 2024/25 | APS Atromitos Athinon | Super League 1 | GK | 22 | 1980 | 85% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.01 | 1261 | 1192 | 0.35 |
| 2023/24 | Aris Thessalonikis | Super League 1 | GK | 5 | 450 | 19% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1180 | 1348 | 0.42 |
| 2022/23 | Ionikos Nikeas | Super League 1 | GK | 26 | 2340 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1250 | 1123 | 0.37 |
| 2021/22 | Ionikos Nikeas | Super League 1 | GK | 26 | 2340 | 100% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1264 | 1198 | 0.39 |
| 2020/21 | PAS Giannina | Super League 1 | GK | 18 | 1575 | 67% | 0 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.03 | 1274 | 1197 | 0.39 |
| 2017/18 | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | Super League 1 | GK | 2 | 180 | 7% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1226 | 1484 | 0.48 |
| 2015/16 | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | Super League 1 | GK | 1 | 7 | 0% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1158 | 1585 | 0.46 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023/24 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Aris Thessalonikis | 1 | 120 | 0 | 0 | 1424 |
| 2023/24 | Kypello Elladas | Aris Thessalonikis | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Kypello Elladas | Ionikos Nikeas | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2020/21 | Kypello Elladas | PAS Giannina | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Kypello Elladas | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Kypello Elladas | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Kypello Elladas | Olympiakos Syndesmos Filathlon Peiraios | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Markos Vellidis Super League 1 · 2019 | 32 | €400k | €200k | fell |
| Dimitrios Kyriakidis Super League 1 · 2019 | 33 | €450k | €150k | fell |
| Andreas Gianniotis Super Lig · 2024 | 32 | €500k | €300k | fell |
| Kelle Roos Scottish Premiership · 2023 | 31 | €600k | €300k | fell |
| Georgios Bantis Super League 1 · 2016 | 31 | €300k | €200k | fell |
| Ruud Boffin Super Lig · 2020 | 33 | €325k | €450k | rose |
| Zdenek Zlamal Scottish Premiership · 2019 | 34 | €450k | €250k | fell |
| Denys Sydorenko Premier Liga · 2022 | 33 | €300k | €100k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2024 | Aris Saloniki | Atromitos | Free / loan | €400k |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Ionikos Nikea | Aris Saloniki | Free / loan | €400k |
| 5 Jul 2021 | PAS Giannina | Ionikos Nikea | Free / loan | €350k |
| 9 Sept 2019 | Olympiacos | PAS Giannina | Free / loan | €300k |
| 1 Jan 2014 | Olympiacos U20 | Olympiacos | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.