
Fidan Aliti
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Fidan Aliti's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.5M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.2M-0.7M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 33
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 21.1th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 32.7 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €469k vs market €900k |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -54% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Negative | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2674 (87% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.03
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.05
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 21 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1229
- Opponent strength
- 1270
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €232k – €670k
Trajectory drivers: relative output down 24% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -59% (IQR -83% to -45%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Age 33: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 50 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 68%–191%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 54%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Alanyaspor | Super Lig | CB | 30 | 2674 | 87% | 0 | 1 | 0.03 | 0.05 | 1270 | 1229 | 0.40 |
| 2024/25 | Alanyaspor | Super Lig | CB | 34 | 3046 | 94% | 1 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 1285 | 1247 | 0.39 |
| 2023/24 | Alanyaspor | Super Lig | CB | 35 | 3047 | 89% | 0 | 2 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 1292 | 1313 | 0.45 |
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Júnior Morais Super Lig · 2020 | 34 | €550k | €250k | fell |
| Stephen McManus Scottish Premiership · 2016 | 34 | €500k | €450k | flat |
| Caner Osmanpaşa Super Lig · 2020 | 32 | €600k | €400k | fell |
| Igor Perduta Premier Liga · 2023 | 33 | €500k | €100k | fell |
| Marcelo Goiano Super Lig · 2020 | 33 | €950k | €100k | fell |
| Marin Anicic Super Lig · 2020 | 31 | €725k | €50k | fell |
| Nicky Devlin Scottish Premiership · 2024 | 31 | €550k | €200k | fell |
| Aziz Behich Super Lig · 2022 | 32 | €775k | €400k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Jul 2023 | FC Zürich | Alanyaspor | €100k | €1.3M |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Kalmar FF | FC Zürich | €1.2M | €700k |
| 30 Jun 2021 | FC Zürich | Kalmar FF | Free / loan | €700k |
| 2 Oct 2020 | Kalmar FF | FC Zürich | Free / loan | €700k |
| 3 Feb 2019 | KF Skënderbeu | Kalmar FF | €375k | €400k |
| 31 Aug 2017 | Slaven Belupo | KF Skënderbeu | Free / loan | €350k |
| 31 Aug 2016 | FC Sheriff | Slaven Belupo | Free / loan | €250k |
| 31 Aug 2015 | FC Luzern | FC Sheriff | Free / loan | €400k |
| 1 Jan 2014 | Luzern U21 | FC Luzern | Unknown | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2013 | BSC Old Boys | Luzern U21 | €75k | €50k |
| 1 Jul 2011 | BSC Old Boys II | BSC Old Boys | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2010 | FC Basel U18 | BSC Old Boys II | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.