Fidan Aliti

33 yrs · Centre-back · Kosovo
Alanyaspor · Super Lig · Foot: left · Height: 186 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2028
Market value
€900k
Updated 7 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€243k – €806k
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€284k – €483k
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€232k – €670k
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€522k – €239k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€243k – €806k
Model value (performance-implied)€284k – €483k
Projected value (24 months)€232k – €670k
Dashed line: current market value (€900k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Fidan Aliti's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.5M, below the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.8M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.2M-0.7M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Bargain Index: 33

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceBelow average21.1th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable32.7 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €469k vs market €900k
Expected appreciationVery low-54% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapNegativeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.4
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €2.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2674 (87% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.03
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.05
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
21 (Below average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.40 (rank 18)
Team strength (Elo)
1229
Opponent strength
1270
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
declining
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€232k – €670k

Trajectory drivers: relative output down 24% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -59% (IQR -83% to -45%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ▲Age 33: resale value typically declines.
  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
50 (DEF)
Relative output kept
68%–191%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
54%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26AlanyasporSuper LigCB30267487%010.030.05127012290.40
2024/25AlanyasporSuper LigCB34304694%110.060.06128512470.39
2023/24AlanyasporSuper LigCB35304789%020.060.06129213130.45

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Júnior Morais
Super Lig · 2020
34€550k€250kfell
Stephen McManus
Scottish Premiership · 2016
34€500k€450kflat
Caner Osmanpaşa
Super Lig · 2020
32€600k€400kfell
Igor Perduta
Premier Liga · 2023
33€500k€100kfell
Marcelo Goiano
Super Lig · 2020
33€950k€100kfell
Marin Anicic
Super Lig · 2020
31€725k€50kfell
Nicky Devlin
Scottish Premiership · 2024
31€550k€200kfell
Aziz Behich
Super Lig · 2022
32€775k€400kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
25 Jul 2023FC ZürichAlanyaspor€100k€1.3M
1 Jul 2021Kalmar FFFC Zürich€1.2M€700k
30 Jun 2021FC ZürichKalmar FFFree / loan€700k
2 Oct 2020Kalmar FFFC ZürichFree / loan€700k
3 Feb 2019KF SkënderbeuKalmar FF€375k€400k
31 Aug 2017Slaven BelupoKF SkënderbeuFree / loan€350k
31 Aug 2016FC SheriffSlaven BelupoFree / loan€250k
31 Aug 2015FC LuzernFC SheriffFree / loan€400k
1 Jan 2014Luzern U21FC LuzernUnknown€50k
1 Jul 2013BSC Old BoysLuzern U21€75k€50k
1 Jul 2011BSC Old Boys IIBSC Old BoysUnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2010FC Basel U18BSC Old Boys IIFree / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.