
Valentino Lazaro
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Valentino Lazaro's performance-implied value at EUR 2.7M-5.9M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.8M-3.0M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.8M-2.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.74x the positional average in the league (2260 minutes, league coefficient 0.93). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: 21
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Above average | 71.2th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 30.3 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €1.7M vs market €2.5M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -48% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.93 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Moderate | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2260 (66% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.08
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.16
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 71 (Above average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.93 (rank 4)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1419
- Opponent strength
- 1520
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- declining
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €840k – €2.0M
Trajectory drivers: relative output down 42% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -54% (IQR -69% to -32%).
Risk profile
Overall: Moderate
- ⚠Age 30: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Torino FC | Serie A | RM | 31 | 2260 | 66% | 0 | 2 | 0.08 | 0.16 | 1520 | 1419 | 0.93 |
| 2024/25 | Torino FC | Serie A | RM | 33 | 2319 | 68% | 0 | 7 | 0.27 | 0.28 | 1521 | 1458 | 0.99 |
| 2023/24 | Torino FC | Serie A | LM | 35 | 1988 | 58% | 0 | 4 | 0.18 | 0.22 | 1488 | 1510 | 0.98 |
| 2022/23 | Torino FC | Serie A | RM | 23 | 1376 | 40% | 0 | 3 | 0.20 | 0.25 | 1495 | 1468 | 0.94 |
| 2021/22 | SL Benfica | Liga Portugal | RM | 18 | 979 | 32% | 0 | 2 | 0.18 | 0.15 | 1346 | 1656 | 0.67 |
| 2020/21 | Borussia Mönchengladbach | Bundesliga | RM | 22 | 1237 | 40% | 2 | 0 | 0.15 | 0.15 | 1526 | 1581 | 1.06 |
| 2019/20 | Newcastle United | Premier League | RM | 13 | 474 | 14% | 1 | 0 | 0.19 | 0.33 | 1653 | 1476 | 1.14 |
| 2019/20 | Inter Milan | Serie A | RM | 6 | 323 | 9% | 0 | 1 | 0.28 | 0.21 | 1339 | 1657 | 0.82 |
| 2018/19 | Hertha BSC | Bundesliga | RB | 31 | 2743 | 90% | 3 | 7 | 0.33 | 0.22 | 1523 | 1472 | 1.05 |
| 2017/18 | Hertha BSC | Bundesliga | RM | 26 | 1859 | 61% | 2 | 5 | 0.34 | 0.29 | 1500 | 1468 | 1.04 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Italy Cup | Torino FC | 4 | 157 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2024/25 | Italy Cup | Torino FC | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Italy Cup | Torino FC | 1 | 53 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Italy Cup | Torino FC | 2 | 25 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | SL Benfica | 6 | 115 | 0 | 0 | 1655 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 5 | 246 | 0 | 1 | 1685 |
| 2020/21 | Dfb Pokal | Borussia Mönchengladbach | 1 | 22 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Fa Cup | Newcastle United | 2 | 105 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League | Inter Milan | 4 | 100 | 0 | 1 | 1626 |
| 2019/20 | Italy Cup | Inter Milan | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Dfb Pokal | Hertha BSC | 3 | 300 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Europa League | Hertha BSC | 4 | 338 | 0 | 1 | 1490 |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | Fußballclub Red Bull Salzburg | 2 | 159 | 0 | 1 | 1187 |
| 2017/18 | Dfb Pokal | Hertha BSC | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hassane Kamara Serie A · 2024 | 30 | €4.5M | €3.0M | fell |
| Omar Mascarell Laliga · 2023 | 30 | €3.0M | €900k | fell |
| Mariano Izco Serie A · 2015 | 32 | €2.6M | €500k | fell |
| Marvin Bakalorz Bundesliga · 2018 | 29 | €2.5M | €800k | fell |
| Bekir Ozan Has Super Lig · 2013 | 28 | €1.4M | €600k | fell |
| Rémi Gomis Ligue 1 · 2013 | 29 | €2.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Óscar Trejo Ligue 1 · 2017 | 29 | €2.5M | €2.0M | fell |
| Filippo Bandinelli Serie A · 2023 | 28 | €3.5M | €2.5M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2026 | Torino | Without Club | Unknown | €2.5M |
| 23 Aug 2023 | Inter | Torino | €3.4M | €5.0M |
| 30 Jun 2023 | Torino | Inter | Free / loan | €5.0M |
| 1 Aug 2022 | Inter | Torino | Free / loan | €6.0M |
| 30 Jun 2022 | Benfica | Inter | Free / loan | €6.0M |
| 31 Aug 2021 | Inter | Benfica | Free / loan | €10.0M |
| 30 Jun 2021 | Mönchengladbach | Inter | Free / loan | €10.0M |
| 20 Aug 2020 | Inter | Mönchengladbach | Free / loan | €15.0M |
| 31 Jul 2020 | Newcastle | Inter | Free / loan | €15.0M |
| 24 Jan 2020 | Inter | Newcastle | Free / loan | €19.0M |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Hertha BSC | Inter | €22.4M | €17.0M |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Salzburg | Hertha BSC | €10.5M | €9.0M |
| 30 Jun 2018 | Hertha BSC | Salzburg | Free / loan | €9.0M |
| 3 Aug 2017 | Salzburg | Hertha BSC | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 1 Jul 2012 | AKA Salzb. U18 | Salzburg | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2012 | AKA Salzb. U16 | AKA Salzb. U18 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | AKA Salzb. U15 | AKA Salzb. U16 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jan 2011 | GAK Youth | AKA Salzb. U15 | €6k | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.