Hugo Sousa

34 yrs · Centre-back · Portugal
Athlitiki Enosi Kifisias · Super League 1 · Foot: right · Height: 184 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: Data unavailable
Market value
€150k
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€32k – €228k
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€140k – €326k
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€84k – €151k
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€88k – €294k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€32k – €228k
Model value (performance-implied)€140k – €326k
Projected value (24 months)€84k – €151k
Dashed line: current market value (€150k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Hugo Sousa's performance-implied value at EUR 0.1M-0.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.0M-0.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.1M-0.2M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.

Bargain Index: not assigned

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

Market value below EUR 250k (outside validated pool)

PerformanceBelow average7.7th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable34.1 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €88k vs market €150k
Expected appreciationLow-13% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery largeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.43
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €1.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1775 (76% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.05
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.09
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
8 (Below average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.42 (rank 16)
Team strength (Elo)
1169
Opponent strength
1245
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
insufficient
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€84k – €151k

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -50% (IQR -60% to +0%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ▲Age 34: resale value typically declines.
  • ⚠Limited sample: 1775 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
25 (DEF)
Relative output kept
55%–230%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
68%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Athlitiki Enosi KifisiasSuper League 1CB20177576%100.050.09124511690.43
2022/23Ionikos NikeasSuper League 1CB1299543%000.000.05127711230.37
2019/20Aris ThessalonikisSuper League 1CB831013%000.000.05124012930.46
2018/19Aris ThessalonikisSuper League 1CB732812%000.000.10139212720.43
2015/16SK BeverenJupiler Pro LeagueCB3984%000.000.06124812240.57
2014/15SK BeverenJupiler Pro LeagueCB17145054%000.000.02131112110.54

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Kypello ElladasAthlitiki Enosi Kifisias544300—
2019/20Kypello ElladasAris Thessalonikis22400—
2018/19Kypello ElladasAris Thessalonikis218000—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Cyril Kali
Super League 1 · 2017
33€200k€200kflat
Giannis Ioannou
Super League 1 · 2018
34€200k€100kfell
Themistoklis Tzimopoulos
Super League 1 · 2019
34€250k€100kfell
Thomas Sörensen
Superliga · 2018
34€200k€200kflat
Ryan McGowan
Scottish Premiership · 2023
34€350k€75kfell
Christos Lisgaras
Super League 1 · 2020
34€200k€100kfell
Athanasios Papageorgiou
Super League 1 · 2020
33€250k€100kfell
Cristian Săpunaru
Super Lig · 2020
36€175k€300krose

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
25 Jul 2024Ionikos NikeaKifisiaFree / loan€250k
27 Sept 2022Sepsi OSKIonikos NikeaFree / loan€250k
1 Jul 2021Astra GiurgiuSepsi OSKFree / loan€400k
19 Oct 2020Aris SalonikiAstra GiurgiuFree / loan€300k
14 Oct 2016Waasland-BeverenAris SalonikiFree / loan€500k
28 Aug 2014Sporting BWaasland-BeverenUnknown€700k
1 Jul 2013AE PafosSporting BFree / loan€150k
20 Aug 2012AEL LimassolAE PafosFree / loan€150k
1 Jan 2012FC BrasovAEL LimassolFree / loan€150k
1 Jul 2011FC Porto U19FC BrasovFree / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2009FC Porto U17FC Porto U19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2007FC Porto U15FC Porto U17UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2005FC Porto YouthFC Porto U15UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.