
Hugo Sousa
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Hugo Sousa's performance-implied value at EUR 0.1M-0.3M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.0M-0.2M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.1M-0.2M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Contract end date unavailable: range widened by 15% each side.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Market value below EUR 250k (outside validated pool)
| Performance | Below average | 7.7th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 34.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €88k vs market €150k |
| Expected appreciation | Low | -13% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.43 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 1775 (76% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.05
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.09
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 8 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.42 (rank 16)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1169
- Opponent strength
- 1245
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €84k – €151k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -50% (IQR -60% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Age 34: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Limited sample: 1775 league minutes last season.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.43 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⓘContract end date unavailable (or stale in source).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 25 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 55%–230%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 68%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Athlitiki Enosi Kifisias | Super League 1 | CB | 20 | 1775 | 76% | 1 | 0 | 0.05 | 0.09 | 1245 | 1169 | 0.43 |
| 2022/23 | Ionikos Nikeas | Super League 1 | CB | 12 | 995 | 43% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1277 | 1123 | 0.37 |
| 2019/20 | Aris Thessalonikis | Super League 1 | CB | 8 | 310 | 13% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1240 | 1293 | 0.46 |
| 2018/19 | Aris Thessalonikis | Super League 1 | CB | 7 | 328 | 12% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.10 | 1392 | 1272 | 0.43 |
| 2015/16 | SK Beveren | Jupiler Pro League | CB | 3 | 98 | 4% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.06 | 1248 | 1224 | 0.57 |
| 2014/15 | SK Beveren | Jupiler Pro League | CB | 17 | 1450 | 54% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.02 | 1311 | 1211 | 0.54 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Kypello Elladas | Athlitiki Enosi Kifisias | 5 | 443 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Kypello Elladas | Aris Thessalonikis | 2 | 24 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Kypello Elladas | Aris Thessalonikis | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cyril Kali Super League 1 · 2017 | 33 | €200k | €200k | flat |
| Giannis Ioannou Super League 1 · 2018 | 34 | €200k | €100k | fell |
| Themistoklis Tzimopoulos Super League 1 · 2019 | 34 | €250k | €100k | fell |
| Thomas Sörensen Superliga · 2018 | 34 | €200k | €200k | flat |
| Ryan McGowan Scottish Premiership · 2023 | 34 | €350k | €75k | fell |
| Christos Lisgaras Super League 1 · 2020 | 34 | €200k | €100k | fell |
| Athanasios Papageorgiou Super League 1 · 2020 | 33 | €250k | €100k | fell |
| Cristian Săpunaru Super Lig · 2020 | 36 | €175k | €300k | rose |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 25 Jul 2024 | Ionikos Nikea | Kifisia | Free / loan | €250k |
| 27 Sept 2022 | Sepsi OSK | Ionikos Nikea | Free / loan | €250k |
| 1 Jul 2021 | Astra Giurgiu | Sepsi OSK | Free / loan | €400k |
| 19 Oct 2020 | Aris Saloniki | Astra Giurgiu | Free / loan | €300k |
| 14 Oct 2016 | Waasland-Beveren | Aris Saloniki | Free / loan | €500k |
| 28 Aug 2014 | Sporting B | Waasland-Beveren | Unknown | €700k |
| 1 Jul 2013 | AE Pafos | Sporting B | Free / loan | €150k |
| 20 Aug 2012 | AEL Limassol | AE Pafos | Free / loan | €150k |
| 1 Jan 2012 | FC Brasov | AEL Limassol | Free / loan | €150k |
| 1 Jul 2011 | FC Porto U19 | FC Brasov | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2009 | FC Porto U17 | FC Porto U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2007 | FC Porto U15 | FC Porto U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2005 | FC Porto Youth | FC Porto U15 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.