Fred

33 yrs · Central midfielder (also DM) · Brazil
Fenerbahce · Super Lig · Foot: both · Height: 170 cm
Risk: Very HighConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2027
No index
CompareCheaper alternative
Market value
€4.5M
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€1.2M – €3.5M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€1.8M – €3.7M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€1.2M – €2.8M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€1.7M – €2.5M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€1.2M – €3.5M
Model value (performance-implied)€1.8M – €3.7M
Projected value (24 months)€1.2M – €2.8M
Dashed line: current market value (€4.5M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Fred's performance-implied value at EUR 1.8M-3.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 1.2M-3.5M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 1.2M-2.8M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 0.88x the positional average in the league (1471 minutes, league coefficient 0.40). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.

Bargain Index: not assigned

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

Age above 33 (outside validated pool)

PerformanceHigh78th pct among MID peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable33.3 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €1.6M vs market €4.5M
Expected appreciationVery low-64% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapLargeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.4
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskVery High
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €50.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1471 (48% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.43
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.19
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
78 (High)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.40 (rank 18)
Team strength (Elo)
1477
Opponent strength
1243
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
declining
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€1.2M – €2.8M

Trajectory drivers: minutes share down 32 pts.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -50% (IQR -68% to -46%).

Risk profile

Overall: Very High

  • ▲Age 33: resale value typically declines.
  • ⚠Limited sample: 1471 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
  • ⚠Declining trajectory versus previous season.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
35 (MID)
Relative output kept
77%–144%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
69%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26FenerbahceSuper LigCM30147148%340.430.19124314770.40
2024/25FenerbahceSuper LigCM31258280%560.380.18128715030.39
2023/24FenerbahceSuper LigCM25205260%340.310.15127415830.45
2022/23Manchester UnitedPremier LeagueCM35123336%220.290.21159016991.23
2021/22Manchester UnitedPremier LeagueCM28203560%450.400.27158416091.17
2020/21Manchester UnitedPremier LeagueDM30239670%100.040.04156517411.19
2019/20Manchester UnitedPremier LeagueCM29215963%000.000.06159617201.14
2018/19Manchester UnitedPremier LeagueCM17104431%110.170.14156016691.22
2017/18FC Shakhtar DonetskPremier LigaCM17145173%220.250.15129416760.62
2016/17FC Shakhtar DonetskPremier LigaCM18158155%210.170.14134816360.56
2015/16FC Shakhtar DonetskPremier LigaCM12101243%200.180.14131916090.54
2014/15FC Shakhtar DonetskPremier LigaCM22136258%100.070.08135415790.54
2013/14FC Shakhtar DonetskPremier LigaCM23132351%240.410.20134316320.63

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Uefa Europa LeagueFenerbahce7355001477
2025/26Uefa Champions League QualifyingFenerbahce4342101614
2024/25Uefa Europa LeagueFenerbahce10915001515
2024/25Uefa Champions League QualifyingFenerbahce2117011347
2023/24Uefa Conference League QualifyingFenerbahce2180001522
2022/23Uefa Europa LeagueManchester United9527111625
2022/23Fa CupManchester United621122—
2021/22Uefa Champions LeagueManchester United6433001646
2021/22Fa CupManchester United212801—
2020/21Uefa Europa LeagueManchester United8524021583
2020/21Uefa Champions LeagueManchester United4340001673
2020/21Fa CupManchester United322800—
2019/20Uefa Europa LeagueManchester United9666241565
2019/20Fa CupManchester United636100—
2018/19Uefa Champions LeagueManchester United6460001723
2018/19Fa CupManchester United16200—
2017/18Uefa Champions LeagueFC Shakhtar Donetsk8720111689
2017/18Ukrainian CupFC Shakhtar Donetsk327601—
2016/17Uefa Europa LeagueFC Shakhtar Donetsk6467121521
2016/17Uefa Champions League QualifyingFC Shakhtar Donetsk2210011440
2016/17Uefa Europa League QualifyingFC Shakhtar Donetsk2162001454
2015/16Uefa Champions LeagueFC Shakhtar Donetsk6518001718
2015/16Uefa Champions League QualifyingFC Shakhtar Donetsk4360001521
2014/15Uefa Champions LeagueFC Shakhtar Donetsk7369001721
2014/15Ukrainian CupFC Shakhtar Donetsk627100—
2013/14Ukrainian CupFC Shakhtar Donetsk320000—
2013/14Uefa Champions LeagueFC Shakhtar Donetsk3174001658
2013/14Uefa Europa LeagueFC Shakhtar Donetsk190001553

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Jens Jønsson
Super League 1 · 2024
31€2.5M€800kfell
Kris Commons
Scottish Premiership · 2015
32€3.5M€2.0Mfell
Ruslan Rotan
Premier Liga · 2015
34€1.8M€300kfell
Taras Stepanenko
Premier Liga · 2021
32€7.5M€4.0Mfell
Willian Arão
Super League 1 · 2024
32€2.5M€800kfell
Anastasios Bakasetas
Super Lig · 2024
31€6.0M€3.0Mfell
Stefan Schwab
Super League 1 · 2022
32€1.2M€900kfell
Yann M'Vila
Super League 1 · 2021
31€5.0M€2.5Mfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
13 Aug 2023Man UtdFenerbahçe€9.7M€20.0M
1 Jul 2018Shakhtar D.Man Utd€59.0M€32.0M
1 Jul 2013InternacionalShakhtar D.€15.0M€5.0M
1 May 2012Inter BInternacionalUnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.