
Dimitrios Goutas
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Dimitrios Goutas's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.6M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: 57
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Below average | 30.3th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 32.2 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €252k vs market €800k |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -47% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Uncertain | league coefficient 0.4 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2907 (95% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.12
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.15
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 30 (Below average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.40 (rank 18)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1161
- Opponent strength
- 1275
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €297k – €612k
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -21% (IQR -29% to -13%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Age 32: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
- ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
- Historical movers
- 50 (DEF)
- Relative output kept
- 68%–191%
- Held a regular role (900+ min)
- 54%
- Confidence
- Medium
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Gençlerbirliği Spor Kulübü | Super Lig | CB | 33 | 2907 | 95% | 3 | 1 | 0.12 | 0.15 | 1275 | 1160 | 0.40 |
| 2022/23 | Sivasspor | Super Lig | CB | 31 | 2684 | 83% | 0 | 2 | 0.07 | 0.07 | 1280 | 1275 | 0.50 |
| 2021/22 | Sivasspor | Super Lig | CB | 32 | 2806 | 82% | 5 | 1 | 0.19 | 0.15 | 1249 | 1300 | 0.42 |
| 2020/21 | APS Atromitos Athinon | Super League 1 | CB | 25 | 2210 | 94% | 3 | 0 | 0.12 | 0.12 | 1288 | 1211 | 0.39 |
| 2019/20 | APS Atromitos Athinon | Super League 1 | CB | 23 | 2070 | 88% | 1 | 1 | 0.09 | 0.09 | 1312 | 1276 | 0.46 |
| 2017/18 | Sint-Truidense VV | Jupiler Pro League | CB | 16 | 1262 | 47% | 1 | 0 | 0.07 | 0.08 | 1328 | 1267 | 0.63 |
| 2016/17 | KV Kortrijk | Jupiler Pro League | CB | 18 | 1594 | 59% | 0 | 1 | 0.06 | 0.06 | 1351 | 1271 | 0.62 |
| 2015/16 | AO Xanthi | Super League 1 | CB | 7 | 569 | 21% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.05 | 1283 | 1235 | 0.46 |
| 2014/15 | AO Xanthi | Super League 1 | CB | 23 | 1957 | 64% | 2 | 0 | 0.09 | 0.10 | 1334 | 1268 | 0.44 |
| 2013/14 | AO Xanthi | Super League 1 | CB | 31 | 2770 | 91% | 3 | 2 | 0.16 | 0.16 | 1345 | 1250 | 0.52 |
| 2012/13 | AO Xanthi | Super League 1 | CB | 22 | 1854 | 69% | 2 | 0 | 0.10 | 0.12 | 1346 | 1345 | 0.57 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2022/23 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | Sivasspor | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | 1482 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Conference League Qualifying | Sivasspor | 3 | 270 | 0 | 0 | 1297 |
| 2020/21 | Kypello Elladas | APS Atromitos Athinon | 2 | 135 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | APS Atromitos Athinon | 4 | 360 | 0 | 0 | 1366 |
| 2019/20 | Kypello Elladas | APS Atromitos Athinon | 4 | 360 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2014/15 | Kypello Elladas | AO Xanthi | 10 | 900 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2013/14 | Uefa Europa League Qualifying | AO Xanthi | 4 | 360 | 0 | 0 | 1428 |
| 2013/14 | Kypello Elladas | AO Xanthi | 2 | 180 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2012/13 | Kypello Elladas | AO Xanthi | 2 | 210 | 0 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Franco Ferrari Super League 1 · 2022 | 30 | €600k | €500k | flat |
| Marvin Peersman Super League 1 · 2022 | 31 | €500k | €350k | fell |
| Nejc Skubic Super Lig · 2021 | 32 | €1.5M | €1.5M | flat |
| Kirill Gotsuk Premier Liga · 2024 | 32 | €900k | €900k | flat |
| Nicky Devlin Scottish Premiership · 2023 | 30 | €700k | €500k | fell |
| Rasmus Minor Petersen Superliga · 2020 | 32 | €300k | €250k | flat |
| Marcel Seip Eredivisie · 2013 | 31 | €500k | €150k | fell |
| Igor Kurylo Premier Liga · 2023 | 30 | €400k | €300k | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 Jul 2025 | Cardiff | Genclerbirligi | Free / loan | €1.2M |
| 5 Jul 2023 | Sivasspor | Cardiff | Free / loan | €2.7M |
| 16 Jul 2021 | Atromitos | Sivasspor | Free / loan | €700k |
| 1 Jul 2019 | Olympiacos | Atromitos | Free / loan | €400k |
| 30 Jun 2019 | Lech Poznan | Olympiacos | Free / loan | €400k |
| 30 Aug 2018 | Olympiacos | Lech Poznan | Free / loan | €700k |
| 30 Jun 2018 | Sint-Truiden | Olympiacos | Free / loan | €700k |
| 8 Aug 2017 | Olympiacos | Sint-Truiden | Free / loan | €850k |
| 30 Jun 2017 | KV Kortrijk | Olympiacos | Free / loan | €850k |
| 22 Aug 2016 | Olympiacos | KV Kortrijk | Free / loan | €800k |
| 30 Jun 2016 | Xanthi | Olympiacos | Free / loan | €800k |
| 1 Jan 2016 | Olympiacos | Xanthi | Free / loan | €1.3M |
| 17 Jul 2015 | Xanthi | Olympiacos | €800k | €1.0M |
| 1 Jul 2011 | Skoda Xanthi U21 | Xanthi | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.