Dimitrios Goutas

32 yrs · Centre-back · Greece
Gençlerbirliği Spor Kulübü · Super Lig · Foot: right · Height: 189 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: MediumSample: HighDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2027
Market value
€800k
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€189k – €565k
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€293k – €700k
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€297k – €612k
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€272k – €511k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€189k – €565k
Model value (performance-implied)€293k – €700k
Projected value (24 months)€297k – €612k
Dashed line: current market value (€800k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Dimitrios Goutas's performance-implied value at EUR 0.3M-0.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.2M-0.6M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.3M-0.6M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.

Bargain Index: 57

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceBelow average30.3th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable32.2 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €252k vs market €800k
Expected appreciationVery low-47% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapLargeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.4
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €3.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
2907 (95% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.12
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.15
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
30 (Below average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.40 (rank 18)
Team strength (Elo)
1161
Opponent strength
1275
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
insufficient
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€297k – €612k

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -21% (IQR -29% to -13%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ▲Age 32: resale value typically declines.
  • ⚠League level coefficient 0.40 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
50 (DEF)
Relative output kept
68%–191%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
54%
Confidence
Medium

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Gençlerbirliği Spor KulübüSuper LigCB33290795%310.120.15127511600.40
2022/23SivassporSuper LigCB31268483%020.070.07128012750.50
2021/22SivassporSuper LigCB32280682%510.190.15124913000.42
2020/21APS Atromitos AthinonSuper League 1CB25221094%300.120.12128812110.39
2019/20APS Atromitos AthinonSuper League 1CB23207088%110.090.09131212760.46
2017/18Sint-Truidense VVJupiler Pro LeagueCB16126247%100.070.08132812670.63
2016/17KV KortrijkJupiler Pro LeagueCB18159459%010.060.06135112710.62
2015/16AO XanthiSuper League 1CB756921%000.000.05128312350.46
2014/15AO XanthiSuper League 1CB23195764%200.090.10133412680.44
2013/14AO XanthiSuper League 1CB31277091%320.160.16134512500.52
2012/13AO XanthiSuper League 1CB22185469%200.100.12134613450.57

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2022/23Uefa Europa League QualifyingSivasspor2180001482
2021/22Uefa Conference League QualifyingSivasspor3270001297
2020/21Kypello ElladasAPS Atromitos Athinon213510—
2019/20Uefa Europa League QualifyingAPS Atromitos Athinon4360001366
2019/20Kypello ElladasAPS Atromitos Athinon436010—
2014/15Kypello ElladasAO Xanthi1090000—
2013/14Uefa Europa League QualifyingAO Xanthi4360001428
2013/14Kypello ElladasAO Xanthi218000—
2012/13Kypello ElladasAO Xanthi221000—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Franco Ferrari
Super League 1 · 2022
30€600k€500kflat
Marvin Peersman
Super League 1 · 2022
31€500k€350kfell
Nejc Skubic
Super Lig · 2021
32€1.5M€1.5Mflat
Kirill Gotsuk
Premier Liga · 2024
32€900k€900kflat
Nicky Devlin
Scottish Premiership · 2023
30€700k€500kfell
Rasmus Minor Petersen
Superliga · 2020
32€300k€250kflat
Marcel Seip
Eredivisie · 2013
31€500k€150kfell
Igor Kurylo
Premier Liga · 2023
30€400k€300kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
11 Jul 2025CardiffGenclerbirligiFree / loan€1.2M
5 Jul 2023SivassporCardiffFree / loan€2.7M
16 Jul 2021AtromitosSivassporFree / loan€700k
1 Jul 2019OlympiacosAtromitosFree / loan€400k
30 Jun 2019Lech PoznanOlympiacosFree / loan€400k
30 Aug 2018OlympiacosLech PoznanFree / loan€700k
30 Jun 2018Sint-TruidenOlympiacosFree / loan€700k
8 Aug 2017OlympiacosSint-TruidenFree / loan€850k
30 Jun 2017KV KortrijkOlympiacosFree / loan€850k
22 Aug 2016OlympiacosKV KortrijkFree / loan€800k
30 Jun 2016XanthiOlympiacosFree / loan€800k
1 Jan 2016OlympiacosXanthiFree / loan€1.3M
17 Jul 2015XanthiOlympiacos€800k€1.0M
1 Jul 2011Skoda Xanthi U21XanthiUnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.