Alejandro Grimaldo
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Alejandro Grimaldo's performance-implied value at EUR 14.1M-29.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 10.8M-20.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 5.3M-10.6M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.34x the positional average in the league (2524 minutes, league coefficient 0.94). Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Bargain Index: 2
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
| Performance | Elite | 95.8th pct among MID peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 30.8 years |
| Acquisition cost | Favorable | est. €13.8M vs market €20.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -65% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | Low | |
| Data confidence | Medium |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 1163 evaluated MID players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 2524 (83% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 0.57
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.30
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 96 (Elite)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1626
- Opponent strength
- 1457
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- improving
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €5.3M – €10.6M
Trajectory drivers: relative output up 72% vs positional peers.
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -58% (IQR -64% to -36%).
Risk profile
Overall: Low
- ⚠Age 31: resale value typically declines.
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | Bundesliga | LM | 29 | 2524 | 82% | 8 | 8 | 0.57 | 0.30 | 1457 | 1626 | 0.94 |
| 2024/25 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | Bundesliga | LM | 32 | 2646 | 86% | 2 | 8 | 0.34 | 0.17 | 1487 | 1681 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | Bundesliga | LM | 33 | 2788 | 91% | 10 | 15 | 0.81 | 0.32 | 1511 | 1787 | 1.01 |
| 2022/23 | SL Benfica | Liga Portugal | LB | 33 | 2949 | 96% | 5 | 11 | 0.49 | 0.23 | 1372 | 1718 | 0.68 |
| 2021/22 | SL Benfica | Liga Portugal | LB | 29 | 2327 | 76% | 5 | 5 | 0.39 | 0.17 | 1359 | 1656 | 0.67 |
| 2020/21 | SL Benfica | Liga Portugal | LB | 31 | 2467 | 81% | 2 | 10 | 0.44 | 0.22 | 1349 | 1619 | 0.61 |
| 2019/20 | SL Benfica | Liga Portugal | LB | 26 | 2301 | 75% | 0 | 6 | 0.23 | 0.11 | 1363 | 1583 | 0.59 |
| 2018/19 | SL Benfica | Liga Portugal | LB | 34 | 3053 | 100% | 4 | 12 | 0.47 | 0.22 | 1356 | 1683 | 0.65 |
| 2017/18 | SL Benfica | Liga Portugal | LB | 28 | 2439 | 80% | 1 | 4 | 0.18 | 0.10 | 1336 | 1605 | 0.64 |
| 2016/17 | SL Benfica | Liga Portugal | LB | 14 | 1253 | 41% | 2 | 3 | 0.36 | 0.14 | 1339 | 1653 | 0.58 |
| 2015/16 | SL Benfica | Liga Portugal | LB | 2 | 180 | 6% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.03 | 1315 | 1712 | 0.58 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Uefa Champions League | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 12 | 1079 | 4 | 3 | 1661 |
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 5 | 435 | 2 | 1 | — |
| 2024/25 | Uefa Champions League | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 10 | 871 | 2 | 1 | 1667 |
| 2024/25 | Dfb Pokal | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 5 | 346 | 0 | 3 | — |
| 2024/25 | Franz Beckenbauer Supercup | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 1 | 6 | 0 | 1 | 1637 |
| 2023/24 | Uefa Europa League | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 12 | 837 | 2 | 4 | 1566 |
| 2023/24 | Dfb Pokal | Bayer 04 Leverkusen | 6 | 452 | 0 | 1 | — |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League | SL Benfica | 10 | 900 | 2 | 5 | 1597 |
| 2022/23 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | SL Benfica | 4 | 360 | 0 | 0 | 1478 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | SL Benfica | 10 | 863 | 0 | 3 | 1774 |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | SL Benfica | 4 | 354 | 0 | 0 | 1536 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League | SL Benfica | 6 | 467 | 0 | 0 | 1595 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | SL Benfica | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1525 |
| 2020/21 | Supercup Candido De Oliveira | SL Benfica | 1 | 89 | 0 | 0 | 1660 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Champions League | SL Benfica | 6 | 540 | 0 | 1 | 1607 |
| 2019/20 | Uefa Europa League | SL Benfica | 2 | 180 | 0 | 1 | 1636 |
| 2019/20 | Supercup Candido De Oliveira | SL Benfica | 1 | 90 | 1 | 0 | 1634 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Champions League | SL Benfica | 6 | 540 | 2 | 0 | 1675 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Europa League | SL Benfica | 5 | 434 | 1 | 1 | 1590 |
| 2018/19 | Uefa Champions League Qualifying | SL Benfica | 4 | 360 | 0 | 0 | 1570 |
| 2017/18 | Uefa Champions League | SL Benfica | 4 | 321 | 0 | 0 | 1656 |
| 2017/18 | Supercup Candido De Oliveira | SL Benfica | 1 | 75 | 0 | 0 | 1396 |
| 2016/17 | Uefa Champions League | SL Benfica | 4 | 360 | 0 | 0 | 1617 |
| 2016/17 | Supercup Candido De Oliveira | SL Benfica | 1 | 90 | 0 | 1 | 1440 |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Filip Kostić Bundesliga · 2022 | 30 | €24.0M | €6.5M | fell |
| Luiz Gustavo Ligue 1 · 2018 | 31 | €15.0M | €5.5M | fell |
| Borja Valero Serie A · 2014 | 29 | €23.0M | €14.0M | fell |
| Marco Parolo Serie A · 2015 | 30 | €8.5M | €7.0M | flat |
| Dimitri Payet Ligue 1 · 2018 | 31 | €22.0M | €10.0M | fell |
| Jonathan Clauss Ligue 1 · 2023 | 31 | €14.0M | €5.0M | fell |
| Benjamin Bourigeaud Ligue 1 · 2023 | 29 | €18.0M | €7.0M | fell |
| Xabi Prieto Laliga · 2013 | 30 | €8.0M | €6.0M | fell |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2023 | Benfica | Leverkusen | Free / loan | €25.0M |
| 1 Jan 2016 | Barcelona B | Benfica | €2.1M | €2.0M |
| 1 Jul 2012 | Barça U19 | Barcelona B | Unknown | €100k |
| 1 Jul 2011 | Barça U16 | Barça U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2009 | Barça Youth | Barça U16 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2008 | Valencia CF You | Barça Youth | Unknown | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.