
Luca Waldschmidt
Value picture
Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.
The model rates Luca Waldschmidt's performance-implied value at EUR 1.0M-3.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.6M-1.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.6M-2.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.67x the positional average in the league (666 minutes, league coefficient 0.94). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.
Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.
Bargain Index: not assigned
What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.
Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)
| Performance | Average | 52th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral) |
| Age | Unfavorable | 30.1 years |
| Acquisition cost | Very favorable | est. €820k vs market €2.0M |
| Expected appreciation | Very low | -34% over ~2 years (model) |
| Value gap | Very large | weak predictor on its own |
| Development | Low | |
| League translation | Big-five league | league coefficient 0.94 |
| Tactical fit | Not evaluated | Requires event/role data not available from the current free source. |
| Risk | High | |
| Data confidence | Low |
Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.
Market value history
Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.
Profile vs positional peers
Percentiles among 901 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.
Performance (last season, league)
- Minutes
- 666 (22% of available)
- Goals + assists / 90
- 1.22
- Context-adjusted G+A / 90
- 0.84
- xG, xA, progression
- Data unavailable
- Defensive actions
- Data unavailable
- Performance percentile
- 52 (Average)
Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.
Context
- League strength
- 0.94 (rank 3)
- Team strength (Elo)
- 1347
- Opponent strength
- 1451
- Possession, role
- Data unavailable
League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.
Potential
- Development
- Low
- Trajectory
- insufficient
- Breakout probability
- Age > 23
- Resale range (24m)
- €650k – €2.0M
Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -20% (IQR -38% to +0%).
Risk profile
Overall: High
- ▲Small sample: 666 league minutes last season.
- ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
- ⚠Age 30: resale value typically declines.
- ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
- ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.
League translation
What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).
Already playing in a big-five league.
Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.
Season-by-season (domestic league)
Context-adjusted values are model outputs.
| Season | Club | League | Pos | Apps | Min | Min share | G | A | G+A/90 | Adj. G+A/90 | Opp. Elo | Team Elo | League str. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | 1.FC Köln | Bundesliga | ST | 24 | 666 | 22% | 5 | 4 | 1.22 | 0.85 | 1451 | 1347 | 0.94 |
| 2023/24 | 1.FC Köln | Bundesliga | ST | 22 | 1150 | 38% | 3 | 1 | 0.31 | 0.44 | 1492 | 1382 | 1.01 |
| 2022/23 | VfL Wolfsburg | Bundesliga | ST | 18 | 513 | 17% | 4 | 0 | 0.70 | 0.62 | 1547 | 1525 | 1.04 |
| 2021/22 | VfL Wolfsburg | Bundesliga | SS | 14 | 718 | 23% | 1 | 2 | 0.38 | 0.47 | 1524 | 1495 | 1.05 |
| 2021/22 | SL Benfica | Liga Portugal | LW | 2 | 142 | 5% | 2 | 0 | 1.27 | 0.28 | 1251 | 1656 | 0.67 |
| 2020/21 | SL Benfica | Liga Portugal | SS | 27 | 1400 | 46% | 7 | 2 | 0.58 | 0.56 | 1307 | 1619 | 0.61 |
| 2019/20 | SC Freiburg | Bundesliga | ST | 23 | 1267 | 41% | 7 | 3 | 0.71 | 0.61 | 1504 | 1477 | 1.06 |
| 2018/19 | SC Freiburg | Bundesliga | ST | 30 | 1717 | 56% | 9 | 3 | 0.63 | 0.62 | 1502 | 1413 | 1.05 |
| 2017/18 | Hamburger SV | Bundesliga | ST | 21 | 789 | 26% | 1 | 2 | 0.34 | 0.52 | 1505 | 1410 | 1.04 |
| 2016/17 | Hamburger SV | Bundesliga | LW | 14 | 348 | 11% | 1 | 1 | 0.52 | 0.52 | 1521 | 1440 | 1.06 |
| 2015/16 | Eintracht Frankfurt | Bundesliga | ST | 12 | 228 | 7% | 0 | 1 | 0.39 | 0.53 | 1503 | 1421 | 1.02 |
| 2014/15 | Eintracht Frankfurt | Bundesliga | ST | 3 | 105 | 3% | 0 | 0 | 0.00 | 0.64 | 1649 | 1476 | 1.03 |
Cups & continental competitions
| Season | Competition | Club | Apps | Min | G | A | Avg opp. Elo |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025/26 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FC Köln | 2 | 86 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2023/24 | Dfb Pokal | 1.FC Köln | 2 | 177 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2022/23 | Dfb Pokal | VfL Wolfsburg | 2 | 120 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2021/22 | Uefa Champions League | VfL Wolfsburg | 3 | 120 | 0 | 0 | 1596 |
| 2020/21 | Uefa Europa League | SL Benfica | 8 | 349 | 1 | 2 | 1528 |
| 2020/21 | Supercup Candido De Oliveira | SL Benfica | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | 1660 |
| 2019/20 | Dfb Pokal | SC Freiburg | 1 | 120 | 1 | 0 | — |
| 2018/19 | Dfb Pokal | SC Freiburg | 2 | 156 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2017/18 | Dfb Pokal | Hamburger SV | 1 | 26 | 0 | 0 | — |
| 2016/17 | Dfb Pokal | Hamburger SV | 2 | 86 | 1 | 1 | — |
| 2015/16 | Dfb Pokal | Eintracht Frankfurt | 2 | 73 | 1 | 0 | — |
Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.
Historical comparables
Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.
| Player (then) | Age | Value then | ~2y later | Outcome |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicola Sansone Serie A · 2022 | 31 | €2.0M | €1.0M | fell |
| Marc Cardona Laliga · 2024 | 29 | €1.4M | €1.4M | flat |
| Eldor Shomurodov Serie A · 2024 | 29 | €5.0M | €7.0M | rose |
| Francisco Portillo Laliga · 2023 | 33 | €1.5M | €1.0M | fell |
| Shamil Asildarov Premier Liga · 2013 | 30 | €600k | €400k | fell |
| Nikola Dovedan Bundesliga · 2024 | 30 | €800k | €800k | flat |
| Hervé Bazile Ligue 1 · 2017 | 27 | €1.5M | €600k | fell |
| Ricardo Vaz Tê Super Lig · 2015 | 29 | €2.4M | €2.3M | flat |
Transfer history
Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.
| Date | From | To | Fee | MV at time |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 Jul 2024 | Wolfsburg | 1.FC Köln | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 30 Jun 2024 | 1.FC Köln | Wolfsburg | Free / loan | €2.5M |
| 1 Jul 2023 | Wolfsburg | 1.FC Köln | Free / loan | €3.0M |
| 22 Aug 2021 | Benfica | Wolfsburg | €12.0M | €15.0M |
| 14 Aug 2020 | Freiburg | Benfica | €15.0M | €16.0M |
| 1 Jul 2018 | Hamburg | Freiburg | €5.0M | €2.5M |
| 1 Jul 2016 | Frankfurt | Hamburg | €1.3M | €1.0M |
| 1 Jul 2014 | Frankfurt U19 | Frankfurt | Unknown | €500k |
| 1 Jul 2013 | Frankfurt U17 | Frankfurt U19 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2011 | Frankfurt Yth. | Frankfurt U17 | Unknown | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2010 | Wieseck Youth | Frankfurt Yth. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2009 | Mittenaar Jgd. | Wieseck Youth | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
| 1 Jul 2007 | Oranien Yth. | Mittenaar Jgd. | Free / loan | Data unavailable |
MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.