Luca Waldschmidt

30 yrs · Striker (also LW, SS) · Germany
1.FC Köln · Bundesliga · Foot: left · Height: 181 cm
Risk: HighConfidence: LowSample: LowDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2027
Market value
€2.0M
Updated today
Estimated acquisition
€615k – €1.9M
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€979k – €3.7M
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€650k – €2.0M
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€917k – €3.1M
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€615k – €1.9M
Model value (performance-implied)€979k – €3.7M
Projected value (24 months)€650k – €2.0M
Dashed line: current market value (€2.0M). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Luca Waldschmidt's performance-implied value at EUR 1.0M-3.7M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.6M-1.9M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.6M-2.0M. Context-adjusted goal contributions are 1.67x the positional average in the league (666 minutes, league coefficient 0.94). Confidence is low: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.

Bargain Index: not assigned

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

Insufficient sample (< 900 league minutes)

PerformanceAverage52th pct among ATT peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable30.1 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €820k vs market €2.0M
Expected appreciationVery low-34% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery largeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationBig-five leagueleague coefficient 0.94
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskHigh
Data confidenceLow

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €20.0M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 901 evaluated ATT players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
666 (22% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
1.22
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.84
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
52 (Average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.94 (rank 3)
Team strength (Elo)
1347
Opponent strength
1451
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
insufficient
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€650k – €2.0M

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -20% (IQR -38% to +0%).

Risk profile

Overall: High

  • ▲Small sample: 666 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
  • ⚠Age 30: resale value typically declines.
  • ⚠Played under 40% of available league minutes (injury data unavailable, cause unknown).
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Already playing in a big-five league.

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/261.FC KölnBundesligaST2466622%541.220.85145113470.94
2023/241.FC KölnBundesligaST22115038%310.310.44149213821.01
2022/23VfL WolfsburgBundesligaST1851317%400.700.62154715251.04
2021/22VfL WolfsburgBundesligaSS1471823%120.380.47152414951.05
2021/22SL BenficaLiga PortugalLW21425%201.270.28125116560.67
2020/21SL BenficaLiga PortugalSS27140046%720.580.56130716190.61
2019/20SC FreiburgBundesligaST23126741%730.710.61150414771.06
2018/19SC FreiburgBundesligaST30171756%930.630.62150214131.05
2017/18Hamburger SVBundesligaST2178926%120.340.52150514101.04
2016/17Hamburger SVBundesligaLW1434811%110.520.52152114401.06
2015/16Eintracht FrankfurtBundesligaST122287%010.390.53150314211.02
2014/15Eintracht FrankfurtBundesligaST31053%000.000.64164914761.03

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Dfb Pokal1.FC Köln28600—
2023/24Dfb Pokal1.FC Köln217700—
2022/23Dfb PokalVfL Wolfsburg212010—
2021/22Uefa Champions LeagueVfL Wolfsburg3120001596
2020/21Uefa Europa LeagueSL Benfica8349121528
2020/21Supercup Candido De OliveiraSL Benfica190001660
2019/20Dfb PokalSC Freiburg112010—
2018/19Dfb PokalSC Freiburg215600—
2017/18Dfb PokalHamburger SV12600—
2016/17Dfb PokalHamburger SV28611—
2015/16Dfb PokalEintracht Frankfurt27310—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Nicola Sansone
Serie A · 2022
31€2.0M€1.0Mfell
Marc Cardona
Laliga · 2024
29€1.4M€1.4Mflat
Eldor Shomurodov
Serie A · 2024
29€5.0M€7.0Mrose
Francisco Portillo
Laliga · 2023
33€1.5M€1.0Mfell
Shamil Asildarov
Premier Liga · 2013
30€600k€400kfell
Nikola Dovedan
Bundesliga · 2024
30€800k€800kflat
Hervé Bazile
Ligue 1 · 2017
27€1.5M€600kfell
Ricardo Vaz Tê
Super Lig · 2015
29€2.4M€2.3Mflat

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jul 2024Wolfsburg1.FC KölnFree / loan€2.5M
30 Jun 20241.FC KölnWolfsburgFree / loan€2.5M
1 Jul 2023Wolfsburg1.FC KölnFree / loan€3.0M
22 Aug 2021BenficaWolfsburg€12.0M€15.0M
14 Aug 2020FreiburgBenfica€15.0M€16.0M
1 Jul 2018HamburgFreiburg€5.0M€2.5M
1 Jul 2016FrankfurtHamburg€1.3M€1.0M
1 Jul 2014Frankfurt U19FrankfurtUnknown€500k
1 Jul 2013Frankfurt U17Frankfurt U19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2011Frankfurt Yth.Frankfurt U17UnknownData unavailable
1 Jul 2010Wieseck YouthFrankfurt Yth.Free / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2009Mittenaar Jgd.Wieseck YouthFree / loanData unavailable
1 Jul 2007Oranien Yth.Mittenaar Jgd.Free / loanData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.