Mykyta Burda

31 yrs · Centre-back · Ukraine
Kolos Kovalivka · Premier Liga · Foot: right · Height: 187 cm
Risk: Very HighConfidence: MediumSample: MediumDevelopment: LowContract: until 30 Jun 2027
Market value
€400k
Updated 6 days ago
Estimated acquisition
€91k – €285k
Estimated · 20–80% range
Model value
€225k – €382k
Performance-implied · estimated
Projected (24m)
€104k – €358k
Resale range · estimated
Potential value gap
-€59k – €291k
Model value − acquisition

Value picture

Where the market, the likely price and the model estimates sit.

Estimated acquisition€91k – €285k
Model value (performance-implied)€225k – €382k
Projected value (24 months)€104k – €358k
Dashed line: current market value (€400k). Bars are 20–80% model ranges; tick = median.

The model rates Mykyta Burda's performance-implied value at EUR 0.2M-0.4M, above the estimated acquisition range of EUR 0.1M-0.3M. Its 24-month market value projection is EUR 0.1M-0.4M. Confidence is medium: no event-level data (xG, progressive actions) is available from the current free source, and injury history is unavailable.

Acquisition note: Final year of contract: selling club's leverage is reduced.

Bargain Index: 75

What drives the score. Not a black box: each component and its level.

PerformanceBelow average19.9th pct among DEF peers (age-neutral)
AgeUnfavorable31.3 years
Acquisition costVery favorableest. €121k vs market €400k
Expected appreciationVery low-36% over ~2 years (model)
Value gapVery largeweak predictor on its own
DevelopmentLow
League translationUncertainleague coefficient 0.25
Tactical fitNot evaluatedRequires event/role data not available from the current free source.
RiskVery High
Data confidenceMedium

Bargain Index = percentile (among all evaluated players) of expected 2-year value relative to estimated cost. See methodology and backtests.

Market value history

Market value ≠ transfer fee ≠ acquisition cost.

Highest recorded: €3.5M

Profile vs positional peers

Percentiles among 1268 evaluated DEF players with 900+ minutes.

Performance (last season, league)

Minutes
1385 (51% of available)
Goals + assists / 90
0.07
Context-adjusted G+A / 90
0.06
xG, xA, progression
Data unavailable
Defensive actions
Data unavailable
Performance percentile
20 (Below average)

Adjusted = shrunk toward positional baseline for small samples, corrected for team dominance over opponents, expressed relative to positional peers in the same league.

Context

League strength
0.25 (rank 30)
Team strength (Elo)
1200
Opponent strength
1150
Possession, role
Data unavailable

League strength 1.00 = average club of the big-five leagues. Elo includes continental matches.

Potential

Development
Low
Trajectory
stable
Breakout probability
Age > 23
Resale range (24m)
€104k – €358k

Trajectory drivers: relative output down 27% vs positional peers.

Historical comparables (8): median 2-year value change -37% (IQR -61% to -15%).

Risk profile

Overall: Very High

  • ▲League level coefficient 0.25 (1.00 = big-five average): output may not translate.
  • ⚠Limited sample: 1385 league minutes last season.
  • ⚠No continental-competition minutes last season.
  • ⚠Contract ends in 12 months: cheaper, but competition and wage demands likely.
  • ⚠Age 31: resale value typically declines.
  • ⚠Projection range wider than for most evaluated players.
  • ⓘInjury history unavailable from current data source.

League translation

What happened to players who moved from this league to the big-five leagues (observed, not a forecast).

Historical movers
11 (DEF)
Relative output kept
108%–176%
Held a regular role (900+ min)
82%
Confidence
Low

Output is relative to positional peers in each league. Movers are a selected group (clubs buy players who fit), so treat this as context, not a guarantee.

Season-by-season (domestic league)

Context-adjusted values are model outputs.

SeasonClubLeaguePosAppsMinMin shareGAG+A/90Adj. G+A/90Opp. EloTeam EloLeague str.
2025/26Kolos KovalivkaPremier LigaCB17138551%100.060.06115012000.25
2024/25Kolos KovalivkaPremier LigaCB14117644%100.080.07120611860.28
2023/24Kolos KovalivkaPremier LigaCB28250093%110.070.08126211430.34
2022/23Dynamo KyivPremier LigaCB1903%000.000.03119514330.38
2019/20Dynamo KyivPremier LigaCB759330%000.000.04135614970.54
2018/19Dynamo KyivPremier LigaCB18162082%100.060.04132715280.57
2017/18Dynamo KyivPremier LigaCB21578%000.000.04130315470.62
2016/17Dynamo KyivPremier LigaCB543215%100.210.08139415660.56
2014/15Dynamo KyivPremier LigaCB540517%100.220.08141215730.54

Cups & continental competitions

SeasonCompetitionClubAppsMinGAAvg opp. Elo
2025/26Ukrainian CupKolos Kovalivka19000—
2024/25Ukrainian CupKolos Kovalivka112000—
2022/23Uefa Europa LeagueDynamo Kyiv190001450
2019/20Uefa Champions League QualifyingDynamo Kyiv2172001570
2018/19Uefa Europa LeagueDynamo Kyiv10900001509
2018/19Uefa Champions League QualifyingDynamo Kyiv4345001510
2018/19Ukrainian CupDynamo Kyiv221000—
2017/18Uefa Europa LeagueDynamo Kyiv2180001600
2017/18Ukrainian CupDynamo Kyiv218001—
2016/17Uefa Champions LeagueDynamo Kyiv190001612
2015/16Ukrainian CupDynamo Kyiv211200—
2014/15Uefa Europa LeagueDynamo Kyiv6464001428
2014/15Ukrainian CupDynamo Kyiv327001—

Small continental samples are shown for context only and are not over-weighted.

Historical comparables

Most similar profiles 2+ years ago (same position group) and what happened next. Chosen by similarity only — failures included.

Player (then)AgeValue then~2y laterOutcome
Denys Balan
Premier Liga · 2024
31€300k€300kflat
Hugo Sousa
Super League 1 · 2023
31€250k€200kfell
Branko Vrgoc
Super League 1 · 2022
33€300k€150kfell
Juha Pirinen
Super League 1 · 2023
32€300k€250kflat
Hasan Hatipoglu
Super Lig · 2021
32€200k€75kfell
Ponck
Super Lig · 2021
31€900k€800kflat
Atila Turan
Super Lig · 2021
29€500k€175kfell
Oleksandr Kapliyenko
Premier Liga · 2024
28€500k€200kfell

Transfer history

Fees as reported by the source; undisclosed fees shown as unknown, never estimated.

DateFromToFeeMV at time
1 Jul 2023Dynamo KyivKolos KovalivkaFree / loan€500k
30 Jun 2023Zorya LuganskDynamo KyivFree / loan€500k
1 Mar 2023Dynamo KyivZorya LuganskFree / loan€700k
1 Jan 2015Dynamo Kyiv IIDynamo KyivUnknown€800k
1 Jul 2013Dynamo Kyiv U19Dynamo Kyiv IIUnknownData unavailable
1 Feb 2013Dynamo Kyiv U17Dynamo Kyiv U19UnknownData unavailable
1 Jan 2011RVUFK KyivDynamo Kyiv U17UnknownData unavailable

MoneyballAI identifies statistical opportunities from available data. A player flagged as a potential bargain is not guaranteed to succeed, to transfer, to rise in value, or to generate resale profit. Market values, fees and contracts come from third-party sources; ranges are model estimates with stated confidence.